It's a model that I consider one of my more reliable ones, although there have been quite a few misses in the past. But, it has predicted bad college-to-NBA players before (Adam Morrison, Antoine Wright, John Gilchrist, Marcus Williams (UConn), Josh Boone, Joey Graham, Dajuan Wagner, Acie Law) but also has its misses (Javaris Crittenton, Patrick O'Bryant, Brandon Roy, Deron Williams, JaVale McGee, Ramon Sessions). Notice how most of the predictions were for college juniors or seniors--many of those busted out. But the same logic couldn't be applied for Roy, DWill, or Sessions. More often than not, players who don't put athletic numbers really start to suffer, and upperclassmen are really fighting a tide to overcome--Adam Morrison was a junior when he declared for the draft, and put up very poor athletic markers--that's why he didn't rank well, even though he averaged 30 points a game when he declared. You'll see how this model applies for the draft below:
*Also, I'm going to highlight the ones that are sleepers in red, and the ones that are predicted to be not as good as expected in yellow. Inevitably, like in past cases above, there's going to be stuff that's wrong--that's the nature of prognostications--and in fact, I've noticed that undersized big men who rebound (Paul Millsap, David Lee) tend to really stink in this model. That bodes well for Thomas Robinson, who doesn't rank well in my model but reminds of the two above. Andre Miller-type savvy PGs also rank poorly (Andre Miller/Darius Morris/Ramon Sessions). Then you have your Afflalos and Mbahs a Moutes, so a UCLA factor needs to be added to this equation (kidding!). But here it goes:
| 1 | Anthony Davis | 15.57574 | H: 6' 10" | W: 220 lbs | PF | ||||
| 2 | Bradley Beal | 11.59605 | H: 6' 4" | W: 201 lbs | SG | ||||
| 3 | Michael Gilchrist | 10.74574 | H: 6' 7" | W: 228 lbs | SF | ||||
| 4 | Jared Sullinger | 10.26104 | H: 6' 8" | W: 250 lbs | PF | ||||
| 5 | Dion Waiters | 10.14996 | H: 6' 4" | W: 210 lbs | SG | ||||
| 6 | Terrence Jones | 10.1483 | H: 6' 9" | W: 249 lbs | PF | ||||
| 7 | Moe Harkless | 9.954131 | H: 6' 8" | W: 208 lbs | SF | ||||
| 8 | Damian Lillard | 9.861204 | H: 6' 2" | W: 190 lbs | PG | ||||
| 9 | Quincy Miller | 9.849808 | H: 6' 9" | W: 200 lbs | SF | ||||
| 10 | Jae Crowder | 9.84287 | H: 6' 6" | W: 235 lbs | SF/PF | ||||
| 11 | Chris Johnson | 9.721309 | H: 6' 5" | W: 194 lbs | SG | ||||
| 12 | John Jenkins | 9.649118 | H: 6' 4" | W: 215 lbs | SG | ||||
| 13 | Jared Cunningham | 9.490336 | H: 6' 4" | W: 175 lbs | SG | ||||
| 14 | John Henson | 9.431282 | H: 6' 10" | W: 200 lbs | PF | ||||
| 15 | Jeremy Lamb | 9.307692 | H: 6' 5" | W: 185 lbs | SG | ||||
| 16 | Tony Wroten | 9.24607 | H: 6' 5" | W: 180 lbs | PG/SG | ||||
| 17 | Will Barton | 9.115389 | H: 6' 6" | W: 175 lbs | SG | ||||
| 18 | Furkan Aldemir | 9.063212 | H: 6' 9" | W: 220 lbs | PF | ||||
| 19 | Harrison Barnes | 8.91779 | H: 6' 8" | W: 210 lbs | SG/SF | ||||
| 20 | Robbie Hummel | 8.895305 | H: 6' 8" | W: 208 lbs | SF/PF | ||||
| 21 | J'Covan Brown | 8.873118 | H: 6' 1" | W: 195 lbs | PG/SG | ||||
| 22 | John Shurna | 8.782238 | H: 6' 8" | W: 210 lbs | PF | ||||
| 23 | Evan Fournier | 8.724022 | H: 6' 6" | W: 200 lbs | SG/SF | ||||
| 24 | Austin Rivers | 8.650197 | H: 6' 4" | W: 203 lbs | SG | ||||
| 25 | Terrence Ross | 8.760871 | H: 6' 6" | W: 180 lbs | SG/SF | ||||
| 26 | Marcus Denmon | 8.606438 | H: 6' 3" | W: 185 lbs | SG | ||||
| 27 | Royce White | 8.521847 | H: 6' 8" | W: 270 lbs | PF | ||||
| 28 | Tu Holloway | 8.471719 | H: 6' 0" | W: 185 lbs | PG | ||||
| 29 | Maalik Wayns | 8.365132 | H: 6' 1" | W: 190 lbs | PG | ||||
| 30 | Draymond Green | 8.361776 | H: 6' 6" | W: 235 lbs | SF/PF | ||||
| 31 | Erving Walker | 8.348145 | H: 5' 8" | W: 140 lbs | PG | ||||
| 32 | Thomas Robinson | 8.329721 | H: 6' 9" | W: 240 lbs | PF | ||||
| 33 | Kyle Fogg | 8.269712 | H: 6' 3" | W: 190 lbs | SG | ||||
| 34 | Andre Drummond | 8.221813 | H: 6' 11" | W: 251 lbs | C | ||||
| 35 | Kris Joseph | 8.208969 | H: 6' 7" | W: 207 lbs | SF | ||||
| 36 | Doron Lamb | 8.177513 | H: 6' 4" | W: 170 lbs | SG | ||||
| 37 | Kendall Marshall | 8.103971 | H: 6' 4" | W: 197 lbs | PG | ||||
| 38 | Jeff Taylor | 8.073585 | H: 6' 6" | W: 200 lbs | SF | ||||
| 39 | Dee Bost | 8.051971 | H: 6' 2" | W: 180 lbs | PG | ||||
| 40 | Scott Machado | 7.980539 | H: 6' 1" | W: 180 lbs | PG | ||||
| 41 | Wesley Witherspoon | 7.978512 | H: 6' 8" | W: 185 lbs | SF | ||||
| 42 | Renardo Sidney | 7.967909 | H: 6' 9" | W: 250 lbs | PF | ||||
| 43 | Tyler Zeller | 7.956867 | H: 6' 11" | W: 220 lbs | PF/C | ||||
| 44 | Kim English | 7.946477 | H: 6' 6" | W: 200 lbs | SG/SF | ||||
| 45 | Andrew Nicholson | 7.896275 | H: 6' 9" | W: 220 lbs | PF | ||||
| 46 | JaMychal Green | 7.875893 | H: 6' 8" | W: 225 lbs | PF | ||||
| 47 | Quincy Acy | 7.76331 | H: 6' 6" | W: 230 lbs | PF | ||||
| 48 | Meyers Leonard | 7.722437 | H: 7' 0" | W: 240 lbs | C | ||||
| 49 | Hollis Thompson | 7.673202 | H: 6' 7" | W: 205 lbs | SF | ||||
| 50 | Khris Middleton | 7.671997 | H: 6' 7" | W: 220 lbs | SF | ||||
| 51 | Andrew Albicy | 7.600403 | H: 5' 10" | W: 165 lbs | PG | ||||
| 52 | Fab Melo | 7.568965 | H: 7' 0" | W: 250 lbs | C | ||||
| 53 | Darius Johnson-Odom | 7.556117 | H: 6' 2" | W: 215 lbs | SG | ||||
| 54 | Alex Young | 7.509354 | H: 6' 6" | W: 200 lbs | SG/SF | ||||
| 55 | Perry Jones | 7.472861 | H: 6' 11" | W: 220 lbs | PF | ||||
| 56 | Orlando Johnson | 7.472131 | H: 6' 5" | W: 205 lbs | SG | ||||
| 57 | Arnett Moultrie | 7.394033 | H: 6' 11" | W: 220 lbs | PF/C | ||||
| 58 | Marquis Teague | 7.365365 | H: 6' 2" | W: 179 lbs | PG | ||||
| 59 | Bradford Burgess | 7.231874 | H: 6' 6" | W: 216 lbs | SG/SF | ||||
| 60 | Laurence Bowers | 7.218628 | H: 6' 8" | W: 210 lbs | SF | ||||
Wow, so your first impression is...this model is all over the place. That's true: if you notice, considering this is an "athletic markers" type algorithm, almost all the big men rank in the bottom of the list, even the ones that are projected as lottery picks. Look at: Thomas Robinson, Andre Drummond, Tyler Zeller, Andrew Nicholson, Meyers Leonard, Fab Melo, Perry Jones, and Arnett Moultrie. All predicted to be first rounders, all but Nicholson projected as top 20 types. Invariably a few will prove me wrong, but this goes to show you that some can't overcome their senior status with great defensive attributes (Zeller/Nicholson/Moultrie) and the younger ones just are too raw (Leonard/Melo/Drummond) or just can easily be mistaken as a 6'8" 220 lb small forward from their stats (Jones). In sum, none seem like surefire things: only Jared Sullinger and Anthony Davis have proven NBA-translatable skills to the next level, and Furkan Aldemir, a European big, even outranks all of these guys in my algorithm. Things that make you go hmm....as I said, Thomas Robinson can go the Millsap/Lee route and succeed, but I'm definitely predicting about half of this big men crop will bust out.
Kendall Marshall is another case that might be predicted incorrectly in the model...he reminds many of Andre Miller/Ramon Sessions, etc, and those pure PG/passive scoring types are exactly the thing the model tends to get wrong. I'll have a corrective measure that ranks Marshall high later in this article (spoiler alert). But it's clear he doesn't rank well, he isn't particularly athletic and his non-passing stats are meager. Marquis Teague and Orlando Johnson appear to be projects from here as well, although Orlando's threes-D quality bodes well, and again, like Marshall, he benefits from my corrective measure.
Sleepers on this list include Dion Waiters, whose slashing/threes game is something that helps him immensely, Moe Harkless/Quincy Miller, both of whom are rebounding athletic freshmen, which are all marks for them, and my personal favorites are jack of all trades types like Jae Crowder, and tall shooters who can do a little bit of everything like John Shurna and Robbie Hummel. Mutual exclusion scorers like Chris Johnson, J'Covan Brown, Tu Holloway, Maalik Wayns and John Jenkins rank well, and athletic imposer Jared Cunningham also ranks well in this list. But obviously, with so many bad shooting combo guards who use mutual exclusion to their advantage, surely we've got to have a corrective factor...right?
Thankfully, I've developed a second model...this one now accounts for height/weight relative to position, and determines whether a player can actually PLAY their assumed position based on what I determine is a ballhandling ability marker (this is based off the players assist/possession and assist/turnover ratio in college, and scaled against what the average assist/possession and assist/turnover per position is in the NBA). So it's a really strict marker. It's actually what I call a "tweener" model: players who are tweeners are easily determined through this model. I have a scaling factor, called a basketball build relative to skills matrix,which determines whether the player is fit for their position. A positive value means they do cleanly fit into that position, a negative value means they don't really, but it's their best position, so they're forced into that position. The more positive means that they can be a matchup nightmare: the more negative means that the more that they are frankly, positionless, and might be out of the league soon because of it. We'll get into the list soon, but before that:
So let's determine who are the tweeners of this year's draft:
Not point guards, are more shooting guards:
| Tony Wroten (SG) | 0.8583 | ||
| Kyle Fogg (SG) | -0.6717 | ||
| Dee Bost (SG) | -1.3767 | ||
| Damian Lillard (SG) | -1.55503 | ||
| Maalik Wayns (SG) | -2.6117 | ||
| J'Covan Brown (SG) | -2.70503
| ||||||
Wroten is a special case here: #1, he's 6'5" and strong, so he can clearly play the SG position, and #2, his ballhandling skills show that he can play it well: in fact, he's #15 of all the 60 draftable players in terms of playing their position well, so he should have no problems fitting in seamlessly in as a SG. A very good ballhandling SG. The others are all in the neagtive, and are a mishmash of players that probably don't belong in the league anyway, with the exception of Damian Lillard, who surprisingly wasn't rated as a PG (passing/ballhandling wasn't deemed good enough) and doesn't appear to quite fit that well as a SG either (rated #47 out of 60 in terms of fit). At the end of the day, he's really a combo--can't really play either position that well at all, and that could be a bit worrisome. He ranks awfully well above, in terms of pure talent/athletic markers, so one would think he could grow into his role. J'Covan Brown, Maalik Wayns and Tu Holloway are three of the worst rankers as SGs, but so far off as PGs as well, so it's hard to see any of them staying in the league (which is why it's surprising all three ranked well as talents in the above draft, but I think we can override it in their cases).
Really, really bad ballhandlers (Or, are they even shooting guards?)
John Jenkins(SF) -2.5697
| |||||||
| Jared Cunningham (PF) | -4.3089 | ||
horrible reputation of being a 6'4" guard with PF ballhandling ability. Think Shannon Brown--don't ever want to handle the ball, like ever, but he's overmatched as PF, so he's just super positionless, and will need to be crossmatched.
Smallball PF types (rather than full fledged SF):
| |||||||||||||||||||||
Miller's the only guy who looks like a matchup nightmare at PF, which he very well could be. The others are slightly overmatched, but Alex Young is the one who is super overmatched, and again, might be out of the league because of that. A 20 ppg scorer in college, he could face the same problems as another Young, Sam Young, in the NBA. Of note is that Barnes is better as a spot-up jumpshooting PF rather than a SF--he can't handle the ball well enough. GMs, take note. Might be an Al Harrington/ Marvin Williams type. Harkless, who ranked well on sheer athletic factors and youth in the first algorithm, also looks like a PF, and might be a project, but one worth investing in.
Undersized Center types
| Renardo Sidney (C ) | -1.3381 | ||
| Andrew Nicholson (C ) | -1.7081 | ||
| Quincy Acy (C ) | -3.5431 | ||
These three guys don't have the requisite ballhandling of most NBA PFs and thus might be relegated to centers in the league, but even then they don't play it that well. They're really tweeners. Quincy Acy is another Reggie Evans type, appears to be, but a worse rebounding version, which means he's not even worth it to begin with. Nicholson is a guy who's touted, but man, that passing ability is atrocious, and even though he can score a point every two minutes, if he can't pass, he won't last long (see Mike Sweetney for details). Sidney is a black hole, Eddy Curry type.
Here's the top 15 of the basketball matrix list:
| 1 | Kendall Marshall | 4.5853 | ||
| 2 | John Shurna | 2.9028 | ||
| 3 | John Henson | 2.867767 | ||
| 4 | Perry Jones | 2.7861 | ||
| 5 | Arnett Moultrie | 2.627767 | ||
| 6 | Robbie Hummel | 2.5228 | ||
| 7 | Anthony Davis | 2.3911 | ||
| 8 | Fab Melo | 1.7719 | ||
| 9 | Tyler Zeller | 1.7069 | ||
| 10 | Meyers Leonard | 1.6619 | ||
| 11 | Hollis Thompson | 1.5103 | ||
| 12 | Orlando Johnson | 0.9783 | ||
| 13 | Terrence Jones | 0.9661 | ||
| 14 | Jeremy Lamb | 0.9133 | ||
| 15 | Tony Wroten (SG) | 0.8583 | ||
And here's the bottom 15:
| 45 | Renardo Sidney (C ) | -1.3381 | ||
| 46 | Dee Bost (SG) | -1.3767 | ||
| 47 | Damian Lillard (SG) | -1.55503 | ||
| 48 | Chris Johnson | -1.6597 | ||
| 49 | Andrew Nichol (C ) | -1.7081 | ||
| 50 | Darius Johnson-Odom | -1.91503 | ||
| 51 | Alex Young (PF) | -2.4014 | ||
| 52 | John Jenkins (SF) | -2.5697 | ||
| 53 | Maalik Wayns (SG) | -2.6117 | ||
| 54 | Austin Rivers (SF) | -2.6297 | ||
| 55 | J'Covan Brown (SG) | -2.70503 | ||
| 56 | Andrew Albicy | -3.0897 | ||
| 57 | Tu Holloway (SG) | -3.3767 | ||
| 58 | Quincy Acy (C ) | -3.5431 | ||
| 59 | Jared Cunning (PF) | -4.3089 | ||
| 60 | Erving Walker | -5.6372 | ||
As you can see the bottom list is littered with a bunch of tweeners, and midgets (Albicy/Walker) for their position. The top list helps the big men recover from the first algorithm list, as height is such a premium in the league that many GMs draft based on physical tools. In other words, I liken this algorithm to the "potential" algorithm factor, in which GMs get enamored by ballhandling by height above anything in way of skills.
So in helping the big men recover, and accounting for this ballhandling/position playing factor, adding it to the original algorithm, here's my new revised mock:
| 1 | Anthony Davis | 17.96684 | ||
| 2 | Kendall Marshall | 12.68927 | ||
| 3 | John Henson | 12.29905 | ||
| 4 | John Shurna | 11.68504 | ||
| 5 | Bradley Beal | 11.68435 | ||
| 6 | Robbie Hummel | 11.4181 | ||
| 7 | Terrence Jones | 11.1144 | ||
| 8 | Michael Gilchrist | 11.04604 | ||
| 9 | Dion Waiters | 10.96326 | ||
| 10 | Quincy Miller (PF) | 10.64091 | ||
| 11 | Perry Jones | 10.25896 | ||
| 12 | Jeremy Lamb | 10.22099 | ||
| 13 | Tony Wroten (SG) | 10.10437 | ||
| 14 | Arnett Moultrie | 10.0218 | ||
| 15 | Jae Crowder | 9.99317 | ||
| 16 | Furkan Aldemir | 9.804312 | ||
| 17 | Tyler Zeller | 9.663767 | ||
| 18 | Moe Harkless (PF) | 9.575231 | ||
| 19 | Meyers Leonard | 9.384337 | ||
| 20 | Fab Melo | 9.340865 | ||
| 21 | Terrence Ross | 9.186171 | ||
| 22 | Hollis Thompson | 9.183502 | ||
| 23 | Evan Fournier (SF) | 9.124322 | ||
| 24 | Thomas Robinson | 9.060821 | ||
| 25 | Royce White | 9.002947 | ||
| 26 | Jared Sullinger | 9.002943 | ||
| 27 | Harrison Barnes (PF) | 8.74389 | ||
| 28 | Kris Joseph | 8.631769 | ||
| 29 | Will Barton | 8.590689 | ||
| 30 | Orlando Johnson | 8.450431 | ||
| 31 | Jeff Taylor | 8.318885 | ||
| 32 | Damian Lillard (SG) | 8.30617 | ||
| 33 | Khris Middleton | 8.248964 | ||
| 34 | Doron Lamb | 8.190813 | ||
| 35 | Marcus Denmon | 8.187238 | ||
| 36 | Marquis Teague | 8.160665 | ||
| 37 | Scott Machado | 8.085839 | ||
| 38 | Chris Johnson | 8.061609 | ||
| 39 | Andre Drummond | 7.818713 | ||
| 40 | Kyle Fogg (SG) | 7.598012 | ||
| 41 | Wesley Wither (PF) | 7.582112 | ||
| 42 | JaMychal Green | 7.564493 | ||
| 43 | Laurence Bowers | 7.473061 | ||
| 44 | Kim English (SF) | 7.399277 | ||
| 45 | Draymond Green | 7.372876 | ||
| 46 | John Jenkins (SF) | 7.079418 | ||
| 47 | Bradford Burgess | 6.797174 | ||
| 48 | Dee Bost (SG) | 6.675271 | ||
| 49 | Renardo Sidney (C ) | 6.629809 | ||
| 50 | Andrew Nichol (C ) | 6.188175 | ||
| 51 | J'Covan Brown (SG) | 6.168085 | ||
| 52 | Austin Rivers (SF) | 6.020497 | ||
| 53 | Maalik Wayns (SG) | 5.753432 | ||
| 54 | Darius Johnson-Odom | 5.641083 | ||
| 55 | Jared Cunning (PF) | 5.181436 | ||
| 56 | Alex Young (PF) | 5.107954 | ||
| 57 | Tu Holloway (SG) | 5.095019 | ||
| 58 | Andrew Albicy | 4.510703 | ||
| 59 | Quincy Acy (C ) | 4.22021 | ||
| 60 | Erving Walker | 2.710945 | ||
There's a ton of slips now--as I said about Lillard, he's not who we think he is, and so he slips into the second round. All the bigs get a push now--Perry Jones, Moultrie, etc all get pushed into the first round. With a few exceptions, such as Austin Rivers/Marquis Teague/Drummond/Robinson being too low, and Shurna/Hummel too high this looks like the draft we've come to expect. Of course, this is a prediction of how to accurately match the mock, and not to accurately predict the player's careers--for that, I think my first mock has more value. Again, GMs overvalue big men, and the second factor helps scale for bigs. So this is more of a representation of the mocks.
To get accurate value of how a player would do, here's what I would suggest--see which players find themselves in the first round in BOTH of the drafts for sleepers, and see which players expected in the first round fall in the second round for BOTH of the drafts as busts. And, I'll have my steals list:
Surefire top 10 types (=<20 total): Anthony Davis (#1-1), Bradley Beal (#2-5), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (#3-8), Terrence Jones (#6-7), Dion Waiters (#5-9), John Henson (#3-14), Quincy Miller (#9-10)
10-20 types (=<40 total): Moe Harkless (#7-18), Jae Crowder (#10-15), John Shurna (#4-22), Robbie Hummel (#6-20), Jeremy Lamb (#12-15), Tony Wroten (#13-16), Jared Sullinger (#4-26), Furkan Aldemir (#16-18), Kendall Marshall (#2-37), Damian Lillard (#8-32)
20-30 types (=<60 total): Will Barton (#17-29), Harrison Barnes (#19-27), Terrence Ross (#21-25), Evan Fournier (#23 both), Chris Johnson (#11-38), Royce White (#25-27), Thomas Robinson (#24-32), John Jenkins (#12-46), Tyler Zeller (#17-43)
30-40 types (=<80 total): Marcus Denmon (#26-35), Kris Joseph (#28-35), Perry Jones (#11-55), Meyers Leonard (#19-48), Jared Cunningham (#13-55), Jeff Taylor (#31-38), Doron Lamb (#34-36), Arnett Moultrie (#14-57), Hollis Thompson (#22-49), J'Covan Brown (#21-51), Fab Melo (#20-52), Kyle Fogg (#33-40), Andre Drummond (#34-39), Draymond Green (#30-45), Austin Rivers (#24-52), Scott Machado (#37-40)
40-50 types (=<100 total): Maalik Wayns (#29-52), Wesley Witherspoon (#41 each), Khris Middleton (#33-50),. Tu Holloway (#28-57), Orlando Johnson (#30-56), Dee Bost (#39-48), JaMychal Green (#42-46), Kim English (#44 each), Erving Walker (#31-60), Renardo Sidney (#42-49), Marquis Teague (#36-58), Andrew Nicholson (#45-50)
50-60 types: Laurence Bowers (#43-60), Quincy Acy/Bradford Burgess (#47-59), Darius Johnson-Odom (#53-54), Andrew Albicy (#51-58), Alex Young (#54-56)
So here's how it looks, and my opinion of the players:
LOTTO:
1) Anthony Davis
2) Bradley Beal
3) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4) Terrence Jones
5) Dion Waiters
6) John Henson
7) Quincy Miller
8) Moe Harkless
9) Jae Crowder
10) John Shurna
11) Robbie Hummel
12) Jeremy Lamb
13) Tony Wroten
14) Jared Sullinger
15) Furkan Aldemir
----------------------
REST OF FIRST ROUND:
16) Kendall Marshall
17) Damian Lillard
18) Will Barton
19) Harrison Barnes
20) Terrence Ross
21) Evan Fournier
22) Chris Johnson
23) Royce White
24) Thomas Robinson
25) John Jenkins
26) Tyler Zeller
27) Marcus Denmon
28) Kris Joseph
29) Perry Jones
30) Meyers Leonard
-------------------------
FILLING OUT THE 2ND ROUND:
31) Jared Cunningham
32) Jeff Taylor
33) Doron Lamb
34) Arnett Moultrie
35) Hollis Thompson
36) J'Covan Brown
37) Fab Melo
38) Kyle Fogg
39) Andre Drummond
40) Draymond Green
41) Austin Rivers
42) Scott Machado
43) Maalik Wayns
44) Wesley Witherspoon
45) Khris Middleton
46) Tu Holloway
47) Orlando Johnson
48) Dee Bost
49) JaMychal Green
50) Kim English
51) Erving Walker
52) Renardo Sidney
53) Marquis Teague
54) Andrew Nicholson
55) Laurence Bowers
56) Quincy Acy or Bradford Burgess
57) Quincy Acy or Bradford Burgess
58) Darius Johnson-Odom
59) Andrew Albicy
60) Alex Young
Steals and busts listed above. (Red and yellow) respectively. So that would be in my final list for this draft.
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