Tuesday, June 12, 2012

FINAL MOCK UP? ACCOUNTING FOR PHYSICAL TOOLS

So the draft measurements just got released today. We found out information about each draftee's lateral quickness, end to end speed, vertical leap, strength (how many weights they can lift), and wingspan. I created an algorithm that gave weighting factors which benefited vertical leap, strength and wingspan--those are the three core factors that can spell success in the league. I built off my previous algorithm, so if you see a player jump a ton of spots--I'm looking at you, Orlando Johnson and Thomas Robinson, their physical tools are why. They really ranked well at that. Also, this is another element that translates well--while my models try to account for easily translatable statistical production skills relative to position (which is why Andrew Nicholson and Austin Rivers, guys I perceive as relatively one-dimensional, rank horribly), this element shows whether the player's build (not just height and weight, but more in depth) can truly translate. Without further ado, my algorithm churned out these player build rankings (only 56 players participated in the combine)




BEST RANKINGS
1 Thomas Robinson 69.37
2 Festus Ezeli 69.36
3 Quincy Acy 62.84
4 Orlando Johnson 59.27
5 Darius Johnson Odom 57.53
6 Damian Lillard 57.41
7 Tony Mitchell 52.51
8 Jeremy Lamb 50.27
9 Marquis Teague 48.96
10 JaMychal Green 48.79
11 Andre Drummond 48.28
12 Kyle O'Quinn 47.82
13 Will Barton 44.8
14 Andrew Nicholson 43.54
15 Meyers Leonard 43.45
16 Perry Jones 42.6
17 Kevin Jones 42.16
18 Tu Holloway 42.08
19 Terrence Jones 41.23
20 Scott Machado 40.74
21 Jae Crowder 40.18
22 Tony Wroten 39.51
23 Bernard James 39.26
24 John Jenkins 38.87
25 Harrison Barnes 36.51
26 Bradley Beal 36.27
27 Tyshawn Taylor 35.72
28 Jordan Taylor 34.74
29 Jeff Taylor 33.04
30 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 31.55
31 Moe Harkless 31.18
32 Kim English 30.68
33 John Henson 29.6
34 Darius Miller 29.35
35 Arnett Moultrie 27.16
36 Marcus Denmon 26.09
37 Draymond Green 25.89
38 Quincy Miller 25.77
39 Kevin Murphy 23.91
40 Tyler Zeller 22.87
41 Henry Sims 22.43
42 Kris Joseph 21.76
43 Drew Gordon 19.26
44 Hollis Thompson 18.4
45 Miles Plumlee 16.9
46 William Buford 15.47
47 Kendall Marshall 15.24
48 Terrence Ross 15.14
49 Jared Sullinger 15.12
50 Mike Scott 15.07
51 Austin Rivers 13.34
52 Fab Melo 11.62
53 Doron Lamb 8.17
54 Khris Middleton 7.88
55 Robbie Hummel 3.43
56 J'Covan Brown -11.65


Thomas Robinson completely redeems himself here, and with my algorithm's mistakes for not catching the next Millsaps/Lees, guy sure looks like a #2 pick like everyone projects him to be. Damian Lillard and Orlando Johnson also see high rises. A lot of scrubs go from undrafted to littering my second round now with strong athletic showings here. J'Covan Brown has a lot of notoriety--he actually lost points due to a super poor showing, the only player to do so. As such, what was once a 50s pick has now completely evaporated from my mock. (Before people argue about Rivers, note that every algorithm I had, scaling for almost every possible stat, ranked him quite poorly: the highest I had him was 24th, on a statistical youth model, but anything scaling for physical tools screws him over, including this one; he's 51st out of 56 here)

Before I go and list my mock, I like this model because teams tend to draft on physical tools. Wonder why Perry Jones, he of the barren stats that would normally rank him as a late second rounder, is a lottery or mid-1st round pick? Yeah, it's this build. Whether ballhandling positional tools, or just pure build, he recovers a lot of ground here. Guys like Kyle O'Quinn, expected to be drafted, resurface into my mock with strong athletic showings. Of note is that Anthony Davis and Dion Waiters didn't do the full combine, but I gave them an extra point anyway as a fudge factor because everyone knows they're lottery picks, no doubt about that.  I couldn't help anyone else who didn't do the full combine--Hummel, Shurna, who I wanted to drop down, finally dropped because of that, but Jared Cunningham, a guy I think would've had a strong showing here, didn't gain any points because he didn't participate. Unfortunate, I've had statistical models that showed him as a late lottery pick to the more conventional aggregate models showing him as an early 2nd, and then this whole positional thing docks him down to 57th, and now he doesn't participate I have no choice but to put him undrafted. Still think he's an early 2nd rounder, on a statistical basis, so that's why this isn't wholly accurate. I didn't want to go against my stats, even if none were provided for those who didn't participate.


1 Anthony Davis 17.77129 H: 6' 10" W: 220 lbs PF
2 Bradley Beal 13.091 H: 6' 4" W: 201 lbs SG
3 Terrence Jones 12.28055 H: 6' 9" W: 249 lbs PF
4 Michael Gilchrist 12.15789 H: 6' 7" W: 228 lbs SF
5 John Henson 12.04917 H: 6' 10" W: 200 lbs PF
6 Jeremy Lamb 11.77514 H: 6' 5" W: 185 lbs SG
7 Dion Waiters 11.55661 H: 6' 4" W: 210 lbs SG
8 Jae Crowder 11.52522 H: 6' 6" W: 235 lbs SF
9 Thomas Robinson 11.47007 H: 6' 9" W: 240 lbs PF
10 Damian Lillard 11.38009 H: 6' 2" W: 190 lbs SG/PG
11 Quincy Miller  11.27616 H: 6' 9" W: 200 lbs PF/SF
12 Tony Wroten  11.25562 H: 6' 5" W: 180 lbs SG/PG
13 Moe Harkless  11.01188 H: 6' 8" W: 208 lbs PF/SF
14 Kendall Marshall 11.00622 H: 6' 4" W: 197 lbs PG
15 Will Barton 10.64504 H: 6' 6" W: 175 lbs SF
16 Perry Jones 10.56991 H: 6' 11" W: 220 lbs PF
17 Orlando Johnson 10.33208 H: 6' 5" W: 205 lbs SG
18 Robbie Hummel 10.2939 H: 6' 8" W: 208 lbs SF
19 Meyers Leonard 10.29139 H: 7' 0" W: 240 lbs C
20 Harrison Barnes  10.29124 H: 6' 8" W: 210 lbs PF/SF
21 Jared Sullinger 10.23679 H: 6' 8" W: 250 lbs C
22 John Shurna 10.23364 H: 6' 8" W: 210 lbs SF
23 Andre Drummond 9.951463 H: 6' 11" W: 251 lbs C
24 John Jenkins  9.919068 H: 6' 4" W: 215 lbs SF/SG
25 Arnett Moultrie 9.794316 H: 6' 11" W: 220 lbs PF
26 Tyler Zeller 9.725117 H: 6' 11" W: 220 lbs C
27 Marquis Teague 9.721415 H: 6' 2" W: 179 lbs PG
28 JaMychal Green 9.671793 H: 6' 8" W: 225 lbs PF
29 Scott Machado 9.662789 H: 6' 1" W: 180 lbs PG
30 Bernard James 9.611075 H: 6' 10" W: 240 lbs C
2nd ROUND
31 Terrence Ross 9.579121 H: 6' 6" W: 180 lbs SF
32 Jeff Taylor 9.517835 H: 6' 6" W: 200 lbs SF
33 Marcus Denmon 9.440438 H: 6' 3" W: 185 lbs SG
34 Furkan Aldemir 9.433762 H: 6' 9" W: 220 lbs PF
35 Henry Sims 9.407632 H: 6' 10" W: 245 lbs PF
36 Kris Joseph 9.290769 H: 6' 7" W: 207 lbs SF
37 Kostas Papanikalaou 9.171287 H: 6' 8" W: 225 lbs SF
38 Hollis Thompson 9.164352 H: 6' 7" W: 205 lbs SF
39 Kyle O'Quinn  8.97449 H: 6' 10" W: 240 lbs C/PF
40 Evan Fournier  8.924172 H: 6' 6" W: 200 lbs SF/SG
41 Fab Melo 8.919715 H: 7' 0" W: 250 lbs C
42 Draymond Green 8.902926 H: 6' 6" W: 235 lbs PF
43 Kim English  8.900077 H: 6' 6" W: 200 lbs SF/SG
44 Darius Johnson-Odom 8.8998 H: 6' 2" W: 215 lbs SG
45 Chris Johnson 8.891459 H: 6' 5" W: 194 lbs SG
46 Andrew Nicholson  8.783825 H: 6' 9" W: 220 lbs C/PF
47 Royce White 8.762397 H: 6' 8" W: 270 lbs PF
48 Kevin Jones 8.717353 H: 6' 8" W: 250 lbs PF
49 Darius Miller 8.661402 H: 6' 7" W: 230 lbs SF
50 Festus Ezeli 8.657916 H: 6' 11" W: 255 lbs C
51 Doron Lamb 8.510963 H: 6' 4" W: 170 lbs SG
52 Quincy Acy  8.50536 H: 6' 6" W: 230 lbs C/PF
53 Tu Holloway  8.466569 H: 6' 0" W: 185 lbs SG/PG
54 Tyshawn Taylor  8.330564 H: 6' 3" W: 180 lbs SG/PG
55 Khris Middleton 8.275681 H: 6' 7" W: 220 lbs SF
56 Kyle Fogg 7.933862 H: 6' 3" W: 190 lbs SG/PG
57 Tomas Satoransky  7.883152 H: 6' 7" W: 210 lbs SG/PG
58 Robert Sacre 7.873853 H: 7' 0" W: 247 lbs C
59 Austin Rivers 7.868947 H: 6' 4" W: 203 lbs SF/SG
60 Wesley Witherspoon  7.780312 H: 6' 8" W: 185 lbs PF/SF
UNDRAFTED
61 William Buford 7.649716 H: 6' 5" W: 185 lbs SG
62 Mitchell Watt 7.399185 H: 6' 10" W: 225 lbs PF
63 Terrell Stoglin  7.370703 H: 6' 1" W: 185 lbs SG/PG
64 Dee Bost  7.363621 H: 6' 2" W: 180 lbs SG/PG
65 Laurence Bowers 7.345844 H: 6' 8" W: 210 lbs SF
66 Jared Cunningham  7.335886 H: 6' 4" W: 175 lbs PF/SF
67 Renardo Sidney  7.298859 H: 6' 9" W: 250 lbs C/PF
68 Tornike Shengelia 7.241309 H: 6' 9" W: 220 lbs PF
69 J'Covan Brown  7.054602 H: 6' 1" W: 195 lbs SG/PG
70 Kyle Kuric 7.118901 H: 6' 4" W: 195 lbs SG
71 Maalik Wayns  7.059282 H: 6' 1" W: 190 lbs SG/PG
72 Bradford Burgess 7.014524 H: 6' 6" W: 216 lbs SF
73 Mike Scott 6.949115 H: 6' 8" W: 242 lbs PF
74 Greg Mangano  6.943094 H: 6' 10" W: 240 lbs C/PF
75 Herb Pope 6.664335 H: 6' 8" W: 233 lbs PF
76 Miles Plumlee 6.633875 H: 6' 11" W: 225 lbs C
77 Drew Gordon 6.656449 H: 6' 9" W: 240 lbs C/PF
78 Kevin Murphy 6.483688 H: 6' 6" W: 185 lbs PF/SF
79 Alex Young  6.308654 H: 6' 6" W: 200 lbs PF/SF
80 Leon Radosevic  6.226676 H: 6' 10" W: 240 lbs C/PF
81 Andrew Albicy 6.055553 H: 5' 10" W: 165 lbs PG
82 Terrance Henry 5.868288 H: 6' 9" W: 202 lbs PF
83 Erving Walker 5.529545 H: 5' 8" W: 140 lbs PG
84 Nihad Djedovic 5.452068 H: 6' 6" W: 195 lbs PF/SF


I've had slips into the second round--Royce White (who didn't participate, and seems to be a prime faller), a slew of Euros (I had no Euros in the first, and all three of my projected ones fell into the second), Terrence Ross (bad combine showing). Fab Melo is just mightily overrated and again shouldn't be a first rounder, and I have yet to see why people think Tyshawn Taylor is a first rounder, unless he really Ds it up like Eric Bledsoe and it's not reflected in the stats--but Taylor has had four years, and Bledsoe only had 1 year. I still think Jeremy Lamb is super overrated and a MarShon Brooks clone at best, but athletically he looks the part. If he could add further dimensions to his game, he might be more useful.

So probably my last mock for now.

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