FINAL MOCK UP? ACCOUNTING FOR PHYSICAL TOOLS

So the draft measurements just got released today. We found out information about each draftee's lateral quickness, end to end speed, vertical leap, strength (how many weights they can lift), and wingspan. I created an algorithm that gave weighting factors which benefited vertical leap, strength and wingspan--those are the three core factors that can spell success in the league. I built off my previous algorithm, so if you see a player jump a ton of spots--I'm looking at you, Orlando Johnson and Thomas Robinson, their physical tools are why. They really ranked well at that. Also, this is another element that translates well--while my models try to account for easily translatable statistical production skills relative to position (which is why Andrew Nicholson and Austin Rivers, guys I perceive as relatively one-dimensional, rank horribly), this element shows whether the player's build (not just height and weight, but more in depth) can truly translate. Without further ado, my algorithm churned out these player build rankings (only 56 players participated in the combine)

	BEST RANKINGS
1	Thomas Robinson			69.37
2	Festus Ezeli			69.36
3	Quincy Acy			62.84
4	Orlando Johnson			59.27
5	Darius Johnson Odom			57.53
6	Damian Lillard			57.41
7	Tony Mitchell			52.51
8	Jeremy Lamb			50.27
9	Marquis Teague			48.96
10	JaMychal Green			48.79
11	Andre Drummond			48.28
12	Kyle O'Quinn			47.82
13	Will Barton			44.8
14	Andrew Nicholson			43.54
15	Meyers Leonard			43.45
16	Perry Jones			42.6
17	Kevin Jones			42.16
18	Tu Holloway			42.08
19	Terrence Jones			41.23
20	Scott Machado			40.74
21	Jae Crowder			40.18
22	Tony Wroten			39.51
23	Bernard James			39.26
24	John Jenkins			38.87
25	Harrison Barnes			36.51
26	Bradley Beal			36.27
27	Tyshawn Taylor			35.72
28	Jordan Taylor			34.74
29	Jeff Taylor			33.04
30	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist			31.55
31	Moe Harkless			31.18
32	Kim English			30.68
33	John Henson			29.6
34	Darius Miller			29.35
35	Arnett Moultrie			27.16
36	Marcus Denmon			26.09
37	Draymond Green			25.89
38	Quincy Miller			25.77
39	Kevin Murphy			23.91
40	Tyler Zeller			22.87
41	Henry Sims			22.43
42	Kris Joseph			21.76
43	Drew Gordon			19.26
44	Hollis Thompson			18.4
45	Miles Plumlee			16.9
46	William Buford			15.47
47	Kendall Marshall			15.24
48	Terrence Ross			15.14
49	Jared Sullinger			15.12
50	Mike Scott			15.07
51	Austin Rivers			13.34
52	Fab Melo			11.62
53	Doron Lamb			8.17
54	Khris Middleton			7.88
55	Robbie Hummel			3.43
56	J'Covan Brown			-11.65

Thomas Robinson completely redeems himself here, and with my algorithm's mistakes for not catching the next Millsaps/Lees, guy sure looks like a #2 pick like everyone projects him to be. Damian Lillard and Orlando Johnson also see high rises. A lot of scrubs go from undrafted to littering my second round now with strong athletic showings here. J'Covan Brown has a lot of notoriety--he actually lost points due to a super poor showing, the only player to do so. As such, what was once a 50s pick has now completely evaporated from my mock. (Before people argue about Rivers, note that every algorithm I had, scaling for almost every possible stat, ranked him quite poorly: the highest I had him was 24th, on a statistical youth model, but anything scaling for physical tools screws him over, including this one; he's 51st out of 56 here)

Before I go and list my mock, I like this model because teams tend to draft on physical tools. Wonder why Perry Jones, he of the barren stats that would normally rank him as a late second rounder, is a lottery or mid-1st round pick? Yeah, it's this build. Whether ballhandling positional tools, or just pure build, he recovers a lot of ground here. Guys like Kyle O'Quinn, expected to be drafted, resurface into my mock with strong athletic showings. Of note is that Anthony Davis and Dion Waiters didn't do the full combine, but I gave them an extra point anyway as a fudge factor because everyone knows they're lottery picks, no doubt about that.  I couldn't help anyone else who didn't do the full combine--Hummel, Shurna, who I wanted to drop down, finally dropped because of that, but Jared Cunningham, a guy I think would've had a strong showing here, didn't gain any points because he didn't participate. Unfortunate, I've had statistical models that showed him as a late lottery pick to the more conventional aggregate models showing him as an early 2nd, and then this whole positional thing docks him down to 57th, and now he doesn't participate I have no choice but to put him undrafted. Still think he's an early 2nd rounder, on a statistical basis, so that's why this isn't wholly accurate. I didn't want to go against my stats, even if none were provided for those who didn't participate.

1	Anthony Davis			17.77129		H: 6' 10"	W: 220 lbs		PF
2	Bradley Beal			13.091		H: 6' 4"	W: 201 lbs		SG
3	Terrence Jones			12.28055		H: 6' 9"	W: 249 lbs		PF
4	Michael Gilchrist			12.15789		H: 6' 7"	W: 228 lbs		SF
5	John Henson			12.04917		H: 6' 10"	W: 200 lbs		PF
6	Jeremy Lamb			11.77514		H: 6' 5"	W: 185 lbs		SG
7	Dion Waiters			11.55661		H: 6' 4"	W: 210 lbs		SG
8	Jae Crowder			11.52522		H: 6' 6"	W: 235 lbs		SF
9	Thomas Robinson			11.47007		H: 6' 9"	W: 240 lbs		PF
10	Damian Lillard			11.38009		H: 6' 2"	W: 190 lbs		SG/PG
11	Quincy Miller			11.27616		H: 6' 9"	W: 200 lbs		PF/SF
12	Tony Wroten			11.25562		H: 6' 5"	W: 180 lbs		SG/PG
13	Moe Harkless			11.01188		H: 6' 8"	W: 208 lbs		PF/SF
14	Kendall Marshall			11.00622		H: 6' 4"	W: 197 lbs		PG
15	Will Barton			10.64504		H: 6' 6"	W: 175 lbs		SF
16	Perry Jones			10.56991		H: 6' 11"	W: 220 lbs		PF
17	Orlando Johnson			10.33208		H: 6' 5"	W: 205 lbs		SG
18	Robbie Hummel			10.2939		H: 6' 8"	W: 208 lbs		SF
19	Meyers Leonard			10.29139		H: 7' 0"	W: 240 lbs		C
20	Harrison Barnes			10.29124		H: 6' 8"	W: 210 lbs		PF/SF
21	Jared Sullinger			10.23679		H: 6' 8"	W: 250 lbs		C
22	John Shurna			10.23364		H: 6' 8"	W: 210 lbs		SF
23	Andre Drummond			9.951463		H: 6' 11"	W: 251 lbs		C
24	John Jenkins			9.919068		H: 6' 4"	W: 215 lbs		SF/SG
25	Arnett Moultrie			9.794316		H: 6' 11"	W: 220 lbs		PF
26	Tyler Zeller			9.725117		H: 6' 11"	W: 220 lbs		C
27	Marquis Teague			9.721415		H: 6' 2"	W: 179 lbs		PG
28	JaMychal Green			9.671793		H: 6' 8"	W: 225 lbs		PF
29	Scott Machado			9.662789		H: 6' 1"	W: 180 lbs		PG
30	Bernard James			9.611075		H: 6' 10"	W: 240 lbs		C
	2nd ROUND
31	Terrence Ross			9.579121		H: 6' 6"	W: 180 lbs		SF
32	Jeff Taylor			9.517835		H: 6' 6"	W: 200 lbs		SF
33	Marcus Denmon			9.440438		H: 6' 3"	W: 185 lbs		SG
34	Furkan Aldemir			9.433762		H: 6' 9"	W: 220 lbs		PF
35	Henry Sims			9.407632		H: 6' 10"	W: 245 lbs		PF
36	Kris Joseph			9.290769		H: 6' 7"	W: 207 lbs		SF
37	Kostas Papanikalaou			9.171287		H: 6' 8"	W: 225 lbs		SF
38	Hollis Thompson			9.164352		H: 6' 7"	W: 205 lbs		SF
39	Kyle O'Quinn			8.97449		H: 6' 10"	W: 240 lbs		C/PF
40	Evan Fournier			8.924172		H: 6' 6"	W: 200 lbs		SF/SG
41	Fab Melo			8.919715		H: 7' 0"	W: 250 lbs		C
42	Draymond Green			8.902926		H: 6' 6"	W: 235 lbs		PF
43	Kim English			8.900077		H: 6' 6"	W: 200 lbs		SF/SG
44	Darius Johnson-Odom			8.8998		H: 6' 2"	W: 215 lbs		SG
45	Chris Johnson			8.891459		H: 6' 5"	W: 194 lbs		SG
46	Andrew Nicholson			8.783825		H: 6' 9"	W: 220 lbs		C/PF
47	Royce White			8.762397		H: 6' 8"	W: 270 lbs		PF
48	Kevin Jones			8.717353		H: 6' 8"	W: 250 lbs		PF
49	Darius Miller			8.661402		H: 6' 7"	W: 230 lbs		SF
50	Festus Ezeli			8.657916		H: 6' 11"	W: 255 lbs		C
51	Doron Lamb			8.510963		H: 6' 4"	W: 170 lbs		SG
52	Quincy Acy			8.50536		H: 6' 6"	W: 230 lbs		C/PF
53	Tu Holloway			8.466569		H: 6' 0"	W: 185 lbs		SG/PG
54	Tyshawn Taylor			8.330564		H: 6' 3"	W: 180 lbs		SG/PG
55	Khris Middleton			8.275681		H: 6' 7"	W: 220 lbs		SF
56	Kyle Fogg			7.933862		H: 6' 3"	W: 190 lbs		SG/PG
57	Tomas Satoransky			7.883152		H: 6' 7"	W: 210 lbs		SG/PG
58	Robert Sacre			7.873853		H: 7' 0"	W: 247 lbs		C
59	Austin Rivers			7.868947		H: 6' 4"	W: 203 lbs		SF/SG
60	Wesley Witherspoon			7.780312		H: 6' 8"	W: 185 lbs		PF/SF
	UNDRAFTED
61	William Buford			7.649716		H: 6' 5"	W: 185 lbs		SG
62	Mitchell Watt			7.399185		H: 6' 10"	W: 225 lbs		PF
63	Terrell Stoglin			7.370703		H: 6' 1"	W: 185 lbs		SG/PG
64	Dee Bost			7.363621		H: 6' 2"	W: 180 lbs		SG/PG
65	Laurence Bowers			7.345844		H: 6' 8"	W: 210 lbs		SF
66	Jared Cunningham			7.335886		H: 6' 4"	W: 175 lbs		PF/SF
67	Renardo Sidney			7.298859		H: 6' 9"	W: 250 lbs		C/PF
68	Tornike Shengelia			7.241309		H: 6' 9"	W: 220 lbs		PF
69	J'Covan Brown			7.054602		H: 6' 1"	W: 195 lbs		SG/PG
70	Kyle Kuric			7.118901		H: 6' 4"	W: 195 lbs		SG
71	Maalik Wayns			7.059282		H: 6' 1"	W: 190 lbs		SG/PG
72	Bradford Burgess			7.014524		H: 6' 6"	W: 216 lbs		SF
73	Mike Scott			6.949115		H: 6' 8"	W: 242 lbs		PF
74	Greg Mangano			6.943094		H: 6' 10"	W: 240 lbs		C/PF
75	Herb Pope			6.664335		H: 6' 8"	W: 233 lbs		PF
76	Miles Plumlee			6.633875		H: 6' 11"	W: 225 lbs		C
77	Drew Gordon			6.656449		H: 6' 9"	W: 240 lbs		C/PF
78	Kevin Murphy			6.483688		H: 6' 6"	W: 185 lbs		PF/SF
79	Alex Young			6.308654		H: 6' 6"	W: 200 lbs		PF/SF
80	Leon Radosevic			6.226676		H: 6' 10"	W: 240 lbs		C/PF
81	Andrew Albicy			6.055553		H: 5' 10"	W: 165 lbs		PG
82	Terrance Henry			5.868288		H: 6' 9"	W: 202 lbs		PF
83	Erving Walker			5.529545		H: 5' 8"	W: 140 lbs		PG
84	Nihad Djedovic			5.452068		H: 6' 6"	W: 195 lbs		PF/SF

I've had slips into the second round--Royce White (who didn't participate, and seems to be a prime faller), a slew of Euros (I had no Euros in the first, and all three of my projected ones fell into the second), Terrence Ross (bad combine showing). Fab Melo is just mightily overrated and again shouldn't be a first rounder, and I have yet to see why people think Tyshawn Taylor is a first rounder, unless he really Ds it up like Eric Bledsoe and it's not reflected in the stats--but Taylor has had four years, and Bledsoe only had 1 year. I still think Jeremy Lamb is super overrated and a MarShon Brooks clone at best, but athletically he looks the part. If he could add further dimensions to his game, he might be more useful.

So probably my last mock for now.