Friday, May 31, 2013

COLLEGE RATERS, AND AGE/POSITION RATERS FOR THE NBA


So this post is what I like to call "reverse engineering" the draft process. In my mock drafts, I have used what I call "forward engineering"--advanced stats with fudge factors given to athletic traits--rebounding, defensive playmaking, and other NBA translatable factors like age (smaller the better), player improvement from past season and mutual exclusion factors (threes+free throws). We'll bring that up at the end of the post to get a consolidate assessment based on this forward and reverse engineering combination.

But what is this "reverse engineering"? This time, we're going to use the past--namely, the past drafts, an use history to set the precedent for what players--using age, positional profile, and college they came from--to see if they have a non-statistical template that looks good or bad for the NBA. Because, as we all know, the statistical template isn't everything--it tends to be illuminating in identifying some sleepers, but there's also a fair share of misfires. So we need to account for this factor, and combine it with the statistics. 

Another note: I won't post all the players in the "reverse engineering" process because there's a ton of them. For college players alone, I have about 330 data points to work with. Just like with the "forward engineering", I won't share the statistical formulas. So, without further ado:

Sunday, May 26, 2013

DRAFT PICK VALUE


Below, built off from the previous article (and improved from the previous article):

SUBJECTIVE NBA DRAFT BUST-O-METER

Using my special formula accounting for cumulative player win shares divided by the number of games they played (thanks basketballreference!), I've created a formula that normalizes the value of players drafted between 2000-2012.

Below the jump.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

ADVANCED STATS: ROOKIE RETROSPECTIVE, 2012-2013 SEASON

This is going to be an analysis of all rookies who played meaningful minutes this year, using the advanced metrics in the past several posts:

Sunday, May 12, 2013

THE OFFENSIVE SKILL LEVEL RATER

So we focused on defense last time, so now let's focus on offense. Let's look at pure jumpshooting ability, explained in further detail here in this graph: http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/jumpshootingmetric/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no


Friday, May 10, 2013

THE ALL NON OFFENSE PLAYER RATER, 2012-13

So I've created algorithms that attempt to capture a player's on and off ball defense--"soft' defensive stats--this is tabulated through a combination of using nba.com/stats' shots guarded and +/- relative to the team's overall defensive efficiency. Then there's also the "hard" defensive stats--basically a combination of the player's defensive rebound rate and defensive playmaking (steals+blocks+charges) minus their fouling rate, so we can see their "hard" impact on defense. For the "hard" defense, we want to put all players across an even playing field--so I took their numbers and subtracted the average for that position from it (via Hoopdata's player stats) so we could standardize.

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Percentage Of Shots Taken

Play with the graphs here too:
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/atrimshots/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/atrimshots2/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/atrim3/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/atrimshots4/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/atrim5/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/dunkshot/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/dunkagain/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/dunkshotsatrim/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no