Friday, June 8, 2012

ANALYSIS OF THE DRAFT, MY MOCK SECOND ROUND

Continuing from the previous mock analysis....



31Jared Cunningham 9.635886H: 6' 4"W: 175 lbsPF/SF



First of all, tacit admission here: since Cunningham for whatever reason did not do his combine, but his athleticism is well noted, I'm going to assume that Cunningham is a top five athlete (on par with Darius Johnson-Odom) and allocate points to his ULTPER accordingly above. This was the result, the last pick of the first round. For a 6'4" player, Cunningham seriously has few ball skills--he handles the ball like a NBA PF, so that really hinders his game. He also has a very well diversified offensive game--he's an extreme slasher who is an absolute foul magnet, but also, he appears to have a decent shot, so there's hope that his jumper could be good in the league as well. Given the lack of ball skills, as an off-the-ball scorer, he could be very useful. However, where he absolutely excels at is defensively--he racks up a ton of defensive plays for his size, and it's widely known he's a great athlete, so this part should translate to the NBA. He's not a good rebounder, however. The only real flaw is that he can't really handle the ball or rebound--if he could he'd be a lottery pick and then some--but he's a great athlete, has decent shooting ability, a diversified offensive game with slashing, defensive playmaking, and these things look like they can translate as a role player type. He could be a skinnier Tony Allen type, but he has the attributes that make him equally as tough.




32Bernard James9.611075H: 6' 10"W: 240 lbsC


James is a OK rebounder and excellent at making defensive plays, and above all that knows how to control his fouls, and he has an OK frame for a NBA center as well and a decent athlete on top of that (23rd out of 56 players). Offensively, he appears to have no range and doesn't draw fouls all that well, and has virtually zero handles--he had some of the worst ballhandling numbers I've charted among centers, and really looks like he can't do anything on this end of the floor. He's the classic guy who won't get drafted because of his lack of offensive viability, but he can easily be a hustling type like Joel Anthony.



33Terrence Ross9.579121H: 6' 6"W: 180 lbsSF


Ross's game is just incredibly average across the board--nothing really stands out. On offense, he looks to have a middling shot, and his offensive game is mid-range happy, and he's a nondescript passer, so it looks like he'll be a roleplayer on this end of the floor. He's actually super averse to getting to the line, for someone that athletic. Good rebounder, OK SF size. For someone that athletic, he doesn't make too many defensive plays--and he ranked horribly in the combine, 48th out of 56 prospects--for someone supposedly athletic, that's blasphemy, and makes one question his work ethic, or whether he's that athletic to begin with. That's why I predict a stock nosedive to the 2nd round. A bit soft? Quite similar to Jeremy Lamb, with perhaps a worse shot. I do think there's bust potential with him, and could see him going the way of Wes Johnson.


34Jeff Taylor9.517835H: 6' 6"W: 200 lbsSF



Offensively, Taylor doesn't seem extraordinary--OK shot with an OK offensive framework, with near PF level ball skills--he doesn't see the floor or handle the ball that well. He's an able fit at small forward, as he's a good rebounder especially for his size but doesn't make too many defensive plays. He does have a defensive rep among scouts, and that really looks like the way for him to go--with his toughness (he has shown great ability to get to the line in the past) and rebounding there's actually some precedence for him to succed at this front. He also appears just to be an OK athlete at best, or maybe slightly subpar, which is why I think he's a certain second round pick (29th out of 56 prospects). Offensively, it's questionable whether this season's shooting was the fluke or he really improved the shot. I'm sticking with the OK offensive framework for now, and potentially good defense, so he might be ranked a little low on this list. But if he's to succeed, he'll have to do better than what his college stats are saying.



35Marcus Denmon9.440438H: 6' 3"W: 185 lbsSG



Denmon has a very good offensive framework and knows what he excels at--he shot between 40-44% from three the last few seasons, and he's got a good (not sure if great) jumper in general. He's actually got underrated ballhandling ability and as a undersized SG, there's some court vision as well. While he isn't ideal as a SG, especially given his relatively poor defensive playmaking and very poor rebounding, certified popcorn scorers off the bench like Denmon have their uses, and he might be able to handle PG at a pinch with the ballhandling. Could be a real sleeper--an upside of Marcus Thornton isn't out of the question, and he also shares Thornton's relatively average athleticism (36th out of 57 prospects).



36Furkan Aldemir9.433762H: 6' 9"W: 220 lbsPF



Aldemir's real specialty is his knack for rebounding for his size, with the side of being able to make quite a few defensive plays, although he's awfully foul prone at this stage. He has OK touch, few ball/passing skills and a role player framework of offensive elusiveness, so he might not amount to much offensively. However, he looks the part of the NBA PF, and certainly rebounds well for one, so that could be his calling card. Still raw though, as seen with the fouling. He didn't have any combine measurements, but I felt compelled to make him a first rounder, but since many draftniks have him in the second round, I didn't add anything to his original ULTPER, and being a Euro, he's likely to be drafted in the second round anyway. Could be a steal this late though, for sure.


37Henry Sims9.407632H: 6' 10"W: 245 lbsPF




Sims is a very good defensive playmaker. In terms of weak spots, his offensive game looks fairly nonelusive, and he seems to have poor finishing ability and a poor jumper. He's also a poor athlete and appears to be below the rim (he ranked 41st out of 56 prospects in terms of athleticism). However, his passing is near the standards of the prototypical NBA power forward, so the transition should be easier for him, and he sees clear height advantages at that position. His rebounding is just OK. Sims can operate as a defensive playmaking PF with side elements of passing, and again, those are useful roleplaying attributes. He can be a steal, as he's a four-year skill player who relies on passing and defense rather than rebounding and athleticism, and which explains why he falls this far.






38Kris Joseph9.290769H: 6' 7"W: 207 lbsSF




Joseph has a good offensive framework that showcases an ability to slash and shoot jumpers, although his jumpshooting appears to be on the poor side, and he really doesn't bring much in way of passing.  As a small forward, he has an OK frame, but surprisingly for such an athlete he's just an OK rebounder, at best. His athleticism appears to have declined over the years, to its current state which is poor (ranked 42nd out of 56 players in the combine). Decent defensive playmaker though. Not sure if the offense is really up to snuff for the NBA, so maybe he can use his foundation of athleticism and defensive playmaking to carve a defensive niche--otherwise, he'll wash out. If the athleticism isn't up to snuff, he'll likely wash out. That's why he's a 2nd rounder.



39Kostas Papanikalaou9.171287H: 6' 8"W: 225 lbsSF



Papanikalaou has a good build for the SF position, which he fits into, and can make defensive plays, even if his rebounding is just decent. He has a nice offensive framework and is willing to slash and stretch the floor, even though he has middling touch at best and is a nondescript passer. Sounds like an Omri Casspi clone. Role player type. Again, he didn't have combine measurements, but he's believed to be a 2nd rounder, so this is accounted for here accordingly.


40Hollis Thompson9.164352H: 6' 7"W: 205 lbsSF


Thompson has his uses--he has a three point heavy offensive roleplayer framework and will finish around the basket and shoot threes, although the long range shot, which was excellent in college (43-45%), might be a bit overrated if the free throw shooting has anything to say about it. Nondescript passer. He looks the part of the NBA small forward and is a OK rebounder, even if he doesn't bring much in way of defensive plays, and that's further validated by his poor athleticism (ranked 44th out of 56 in the combine). The role player three point scoring framework along with looking like a NBA player should get him looks.



41Kyle O'Quinn 8.97449H: 6' 10"W: 240 lbsC/PF



O'Quinn is good at making defensive plays while keeping a level foul rate, but his major attribute is his rebounding ability. As a center, he's got average shooting touch, and also is nondescript at drawing fouls, and his ball skills are in line with most NBA centers. However, he ranked extremely well in his build (12th out of 56th prospects), so that build+defense+excellent rebounding, regardless of his offense, should make him a decent draft play as a potential defensive center. He ranks below someone like Bernard James (31st) mainly because of the far weaker level of competition he faced in college, so it's hard to see whether everything will fully translate for him.


42Evan Fournier 8.924172H: 6' 6"W: 200 lbsSF/SG




Fournier has good touch and is a decent defensive playmaker, so he has the basic building blocks of a two-way roleplayer. Unfortunately, it ends at role player: his offense is nonelusive and involves a lot of mid-range shooting, and he's a nondescript passer even as a small forward. Just OK SF size, and in fact he's a poor rebounder for his size. I'm thinking Thabo Sefolosha here. Again, there were no measurements for him, but I'm wondering if he's a bit overrated so I'm not going to him any bonus ULTPER points. He could be primed for a drop.


43Fab Melo8.919715H: 7' 0"W: 250 lbsC



Melo actually seems to be a bust in the mold of Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje or DJ Mbenga, actually. Defense will have to be his calling card--but while he looks the part of the center really well, and makes a ton of defensive plays, he's awfully foul prone and is actually a poor rebounder who seems to get out of position jumping on every lofted shot. For whatever reason, he also ranked horribly at the combine (52nd out of 56 players) so he might have a tougher adjustment period if he's not in shape or has overrated athleticism. Melo's offense is a wreck, with zero jumper and a very rudimentary offensive framework, not to mention no real ball skills. Considering he's a late 1st rounder in many mocks, it's probably not going to be a wise investment.



44Draymond Green8.902926H: 6' 6"W: 235 lbsPF


Green's another player who makes quite a few defensive plays and rebounds at an excellent pace for someone who stands 6'6", so his constant hacking on defense is put to good use. He's definitely attempting to add a nascent jumper, but that part of his game is nondescript, at best, particularly for his size. He's more of a slasher, but largely, his offense is nonelusive and more mid-range friendly. However, why draftniks are intrigued about him is that he could be a matchup problem for the opposition: he's passes and handles the ball significantly better than most PFs in the league, and frankly, even better than most NBA SGs. However, his athletic measurements at the combine were subpar (37th out of 56 prospects), so there's a concern whether his defense and rebounding could completely translate to the league. Also, will the lack of a solid enough jumper and spread out offense hinder his passing game? Still, the rebounding and passing along with the defensive acumen makes for a fill-in-the-blanks type, even if his build/lack of athletic tools and general offense are major question marks at this stage. How many 6'6" PFs are there in the league, and moreover, 6'6" PFs with subpar physical tools and questionable jumpers? He could be a Chuck Hayes type.


45Kim English 8.900077H: 6' 6"W: 200 lbsSF/SG


On offense, English knows his game: he's largely a jumpshooter, and will prefer the three point line over slashing, even though he's actually OK in the latter as well. However, his career free throw trends show that his jumpshooting might be more OK rather than great. Four years of data show that English's passing/ball skills is just barely along with NBA SFs, so he'll definitely need to make a living as an off-the-ball type, hopefully for him as a spot-up shooter if he can get it to snuff. Also, English is flawed on defense: for someone who doesn't rebound the ball well or make many defensive plays, he picks up quite a few fouls. English's build is just generally nondescript overall, nothing harmful, but nothing special. Overall, English will need to prove that his good shooting is good enough to sustain, as his flawed defense, lack of rebounding, lack of ball skills and nondescript physical tools reeks of Kareem Rush, or Daequan Cook.


46Darius Johnson-Odom8.8998H: 6' 2"W: 215 lbsSG


Johnson-Odom has a defensive rep among scouts, but it better be in contain defense--he didn't make any defensive plays at all or rebound that well, and considering all that he was a bit foul prone in his work. However, there's reason to believe that he can be a good defender in this league--his build is excellent, even as an undersized SGs, and he ranked 5th out of 56 prospects. He might be a better defender in the league than in college because of the more spread out style of play. On offense. Johnson-Odom diversifies his game with slashes and three pointers--he's actually shot between 36-47% on threes, but OK career free throw shooting might paint him more as a decent/good shooter. Johnson-Odom's passing is in line with shooting guards, so while he has the tools to handle SGs, as a 6'2" SG he might need to be crossmatched frequently ideally with a taller pure PG. But still, with his excellent build/athleticism, good enough shooting and defensive rep, that could offset his lack of rebounding, defensive playmaking and passing ability. A Fred Jones/Shannon Brown type is seemingly what he's like, but he could be more given the defense.




47Chris Johnson8.891459H: 6' 5"W: 194 lbsSG



Johnson is one of my prime sleepers in the draft. I really like this guy, particularly on offense: he's got very good touch and an offensive game that involves slashing and spreading the floor, where he can hit from distance. In fact, so far in this list, he's just right behind Damian Lillard in offensive potency. He's also a super active rebounder who will grab a lot of boards, especially for his size. He doesn't see the floor well though, and 6'5", his passing abilities are even nondescript for SF standards, and at SF he has a build disadvantage against NBA players.  But still, he reminds me of a JR Smith type, and considering he's on no one's draft board, he could be a steal of the draft. I think he'd rank well athletically, but given that he wasn't among the top 60 prospects in boards, he didn't get combine results, so even at here (#46) I think he'd be a steal.


48Andrew Nicholson 8.783825H: 6' 9"W: 220 lbsC/PF



Nicholson, like Rivers (who you'll see below), just struggles to rank well in my metrics, and in fact, was lower than this at one point. He ranked well in having very good athleticism (14th out of 56 prospects) in the combine, and that might actually help his cause defensively--he made quite a few defensive plays at college and rebounded at a pretty good pace, but nothing extraordinary. But offensively, he's seriously flawed: he has tunnel vision and little ball skills, passing the ball very much like an NBA center, and nearly worse (he seriously had huge trouble getting assists in his four years in college). Also, he struggled to draw fouls, making his offensive game more predictable, although he had a decent jumper especially for his position. He might be a steal here actually for the league--his defensive playmaking and solid rebounding look to translate, and he could make a living as a catch-and-shoot jumpshooter in a far less offensive capacity for the NBA, if he opts to go in that direction. There's a role for that type of player. I still wonder if he's a real tweener, and that's my problem with him, but I can see a path to success for him, and why some teams have him in their first round. The inability to pass is just extraordinary though, as well as the inability to draw fouls, so that makes me wonder about his offensive prospects.



49Kevin Jones8.717353H: 6' 8"W: 250 lbsPF



Jones physical tools rank well enough (17th out of 56 prospects), so physically he could compete with other PFs. He also passes exactly in line with most NBA PFs, and while he doesn't make too many defensive plays, he does rebound well especially for his size and does an excellent job of controlling his fouls. Offensively, he's stuck in no-man's territory, opting to take a ton of mid-range shots, and showing a severe lack of diversity to his offensive game: moreover, that shot is very nondescript, at best, so while his passing ability is OK, there's a question about his overall offense at the next level. He's largely just an undersized rebounder type who can control his fouls, but he's not quite good enough in terms of physical tools, defensive acumen or offense to really improve beyond that.


50Darius Miller8.661402H: 6' 7"W: 230 lbsSF


Miller's defensive framework is undisciplined--he doesn't make many defensive plays, yet he picks up a ton of fouls to show for it; also, for his size and strength, he's a very unremarkable rebounder. That puts his subpar physical tools (34th out of 56 prospects) more in the limelight, and there might be a correlation between those athletic markers and his build in general. Where Miller has hope is that he's a well preferred long range shooter, even if his overall offense is still a bit nonelusive: still, there's hope because Miller appears to be a good to very good free throw shooter, so that part of his game might fare better in the NBA where he can capitalize on double teamed teammates. Another attribute is that he's a good passer, in fact, slightly better than most NBA SFs, and with his shooting and decent passing he should be able to play SG at a pinch. As a shooter/decent passer out of the small forward slot, one has to hope that it offsets his lack of rebounding, physical tools and defensive prowess, even if his attributes, particularly at 6'7", are particularly useful for good cog players.




51Festus Ezeli8.657916H: 6' 11"W: 255 lbsC


Ezeli ranked super horribly on many of my metrics, particularly offensively where he was shown to have zero ball skills, even worse than many of the centers I ranked. On the rare occasions that Ezeli does catch the pass, he does a great job of getting hacked, but he lacks any sort of touch and has a very poor jumper in general. Between the zero handles and the lack of jumper, he's quite hopeless offensively. On defense, Ezeli accumulates a ton of defensive plays, but he goes for every lofted shot such that he's a poor rebounder for his size, and gets out of position so frequently that he resorts to extreme hacking--he's very foul prone. Where Ezeli sort of helps his cause is that he ranked very high in the athletic metric--in fact, 2nd out of all 56 prospects--so between his size and his athleticism and his shotblocking foundation, forgetting all of his offensive flaws and defensive lack of intelligence, he's worth a flyer in the 50s.


52Doron Lamb8.510963H: 6' 4"W: 170 lbsSG



Lamb has a good offensive framework that he actually attempts to divide up between slashes and three point shooting, and in particular the three point shooting saw 46-48% out of him in two seasons, and in general he's a good shooter. He's a SG, and has reasonable ballhandling ability and court vision for the size as well. Elsewhere it's the problem--as a SG, his frame is very nondescript, and he's virtually nonexistent in rebounding and making defensive plays. That's further verified by his super poor athleticism (he ranked 53rd out of the 56 prospects in the combine), and in fact that's what made his stock drop more here--does he have any chance of succeeding defensively. The spread-out scoring game featuring excellent shooting and some ballhandling ability could make him a very good buy, though, and some could see Jason Terry as the upside here, if he can make himself useful in those areas, but he might have to be crossmatched with his poor size and lack of athleticism/defense.


53Quincy Acy 8.50536H: 6' 6"W: 230 lbsC/PF


I actually believe that Acy can play center at the next level...just sort of Reggie Evans, style. Acy's good but  not great at making defensive plays and can rebound again, well, but not great, so even though he's a bit foul prone there's slight precedence for it. Unlike Evans, he actually appears to be have a decent jumper, especially if he's to play center in the league, which his ballhandling skills say he will--he literally has no ball skills, and is a catch and receive sort of player. Between the lack of ball skills and aversion to foul drawing, his offense will be poor in the league, but the reason I think Acy can play center is that, despite being 6'6", he's got great physical tools/athleticism: he ranked 3rd out of 56 prospects in the combine. He isn't overwhelming at defense at all, but is a hustle player for his size with his tools, and perhaps an underrated catch-and-shoot type jumper, he might be able to make a role player impact.


54Tu Holloway 8.466569H: 6' 0"W: 185 lbsSG/PG


Holloway struggles in all areas of defense--he can't make defensive plays and rebound, and on top of that his ball skills are more in line with SGs, but as a 6'0" SG with no defensive acumen he'll be severed, so he's position-less in the league. He's actually a very good passer for NBA SG standards, so he's really a combo guard, but he'll definitely need crossmatches to succeed in the league. But he's interesting on several fronts that might help to offset those severe limitations: he's got an incredibly diverse offensive game, essentially eschewing the mid-ranger for his well-preferred slashes, even though he also likes to shoot the three. Moreover, his excellent career free throw shooting makes it seem like he can develop into a good spot-up shooter in the league as well. In addition, it appears that he can hold his own in terms of physical tools (18th out of 56 prospects), so his combination of diverse offense, very good shooting, combo guard passing, and decent physical tools could help him offset the constant crossmatching, lack of rebounding and defense. An excellent popcorn scorer with side passing ability could make for a decent sixth man, and he might go the way of Aaron Brooks if the cards fall right.


55Tyshawn Taylor 8.330564H: 6' 3"W: 180 lbsSG/PG


Taylor, like Johnson-Odom, is another one of those undersized SGs with defensive reps, but he doesn't quite have the defensive playmaking and rebounding (both of which are poor) to show for it--moreover, he's actually quite foul prone given that he doesn't contribute much on those two fronts. Taylor's has a decent offensive framework, being a well preferred slasher, and his shooting appears to be just OK. He's actually quite a better passer than Johnson-Odom, and better than most NBA SGs, so he might have the tools to play combo guard in the NBA. But his physical tools are nondescript (27th out of 56 prospects), so with those tools it's questionable whether Taylor has the tools to play his perceived good defense in the league. With those lack of tools and possible affectations of defense, as well as just an OK shot, that's why he ranks worse than Johnson-Odom. Taylor's appeal is the combo guard attributes, his penchance for slashing and maybe the defensive rep, but the shooting, rebounding, physical tools and lack of defensive playmaking knock down his game a peg. Royal Ivey clone?


56Khris Middleton8.275681H: 6' 7"W: 220 lbsSF



Middleton's a bit foul prone considering that he doesn't make too many defensive plays at all, and his build did not do him any favors at all, as he ranked 54th out of 56th prospects overall at the combine. This might put a harsh light on the fact that his lack of proper build is affecting him on defense. Middleton actually has OK enough ball skills to play shooting guard at a pinch, but largely he's a small forward. Middleton's offense is getting progressively mid-range happy over the years, and in the wake of his injury he's become more of a jumpshooter as well, so that's quite disconcerting. If he's going this route, three years have shown him to be decent to good, but nothing extraordinary, in terms of shooting. He's a good rebounder for his size, though. Still, Middleton's lack of ideal build, suffering defense, and progressively mid-range happy offense offsets his decent shooting and good rebounding enough to be a second round pick.



57Kyle Fogg7.933862H: 6' 3"W: 190 lbsSG/PG


Fogg's defense needs work--he doesn't involve himself in defensive plays and isn't a notable rebounder at all, and on top of that seems to be a bit foul prone despite those two flaws. But Fogg's offense is good--he diversifies his game between slashes and three point shooting, and he's shot between 36-44% from deep in his career--his free throw shooting also verifies a good stroke. Fogg's passing is on par with NBA SGs, so as a 6'3" SG he'll likely need to be crossmatched with a larger PG. His measurements weren't released, which means he wasn't perceived to be drafted, but he deserves a look here as a popcorn shooter/scorer type, since at least he seems OK for that role, even if the passing, rebounding, and defense aren't up to snuff. #56th isn't a bad place to be at for that sort of production.



58Tomas Satoransky 7.883152H: 6' 7"W: 210 lbsSG/PG


Satoransky's overall offense isn't diversified--he's a preferred shooter than slasher, though, and does have a good stroke, if his free throw shooting has any say in this. Elsewhere, Satoransky passes the ball like a prototypical NBA SG, but he isn't a PG like some have said he could be--still, his frame looks the part of the NBA shooting guard, even though his overall combine measurements weren't released. Satoransky's lack of rebounding, particularly for his size, is a huge concern, and he also doesn't make many defensive plays--considering those two, he's also very foul prone, so clearly his defense needs a lot of work. It's also these attributes that one would believe his combine measurements wouldn't look good. Still, a shooter with OK passing ability to offset the problems in rebounding, defense and general athleticism reeks of a Jiri Welsch or Sasha Vujacic, so his prototype has precedence in succeeding in some capacity.



59Robert Sacre7.873853H: 7' 0"W: 247 lbsC


Sacre looks the part of the NBA center, but only makes an adequate number of decent plays--moreover, as a 7-foot center, he seriously lacks in rebounding ability. He's more of an offensive center, and in the NBA, he can serve that role--he draws fouls by the bushel and he actually has solid touch for a 7-footer: while he has zero ball skills, there's potential that he can be a good catch-and-shoot option and a player who can use his instincts to draw fouls well. However, his physical tools/athleticism rated horribly in the combine, so this paints the picture of largely an offensive 7-footer with touch and foul drawing ability, but lacking in physical condition, rebounding, and ball skills. That has its uses, particularly since 7-footer and offense don't normally go hand in hand, even if his deficiencies offset a lot of that.



60Austin Rivers7.868947H: 6' 4"W: 203 lbsSF/SG


Before I talk about Rivers, let me just reiterate that I had three different algorithms that presented different ways to evaluate these prospects: by statistics, by physical tools, by skill level...etc. Every prospect deemed lottery-caliber by the draftniks had appeared in the lotto in at least one of these models, except...Rivers. Let's go into the details here: Offensively, Rivers had diversified offensive game with the ability to slash and shoot from deep, perhaps his one saving grace, but so what? Many college players sport that game. We need more. Looking deeper, Rivers' free throw shooting paints the picture of a guy with a poor jumper. Also, Rivers' ball skills rate at the SF levels, and even just that, as they were closer to PF in his freshman year at Duke. He has serious tunnel vision or loose handles that just won't fly in the NBA if he's to be a SG. Also, he's absolutely nonexistent at making defensive plays and doesn't rebound well either, which jibes with the idea that he isn't all that athletically (he ranked 51st out of 56 prospects in the combine, a horrible number especially where potential lotto prospects are concerned). Rivers ultimately reminds me of Flip Murray, at best: he only has the diversified offensive game, but even that is flawed between the perceived poor jumper and the woefully poor ball skills (is he a 6'4" SF?) , and then on defense he doesn't have the tools, doesn't rebound or make too any defensive plays. It just appears to be a me-first style, and I'm surprised more people haven't picked up on it--he really needed another year in school to hone a ton of his flaws.

















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