Friday, July 26, 2013

NBA POWER RANKINGS

Now most of the moves have been made, time to analyze who's first and who's worst.
Starting lineup is PG-SG-SF-PF-C
Bench (left to right) is in order of quality

Saturday, July 6, 2013

WHAT ARE THE LAKERS' OPTIONS IN FREE AGENCY POST DWIGHT HOWARD?

Well, we've officially lost Earl Clark, Chris Duhon and Dwight Howard, and Mike D'Antoni has already alienated Devin Ebanks and Antawn Jamison (another reason to hate D'Antoni, he forcefully takes away minutes without a capable explanation) and those have pretty much said adios to the Lakers. Andrew Goudelock is someone who's not expected to be back, not to mention he's incredibly one-dimensional and has limitations almost everywhere else besides scoring/shooting. Kevin Ding already reported that in the event that Dwight leaves, look for the Lakers to amnesty World Peace, and I don't think that's going to change--we're stuck in the worst scenario, no man's land, between the 7th and 10th spots in the West, and Peace has been regressing badly on both ends and won't help a mediocre to poor roster. So that's already seven (at least) players gone from our roster. By the way, I'm assuming the Lakers are preserving cap space and will not execute any sign and trades with the Rockets.

I'd prefer not to have Robert Sacre, because if you've read my scouting report, I don't see any NBA-level capabilities and we shouldn't waste a roster spot just to have a cheerleader to bring the mood up during losses. He's a RFA, though, and something tells me we could have him back on the cheap, but still, if I were manning this roster right now, I wouldn't take him. That's (hopefully) eight now.

I'm not a big fan of Darius Morris either, because he needs to rewire his game and recognize is limitations, but even then, his niche of threes-D isn't as strong as other players. I'm mixed on letting him return, particularly since we have Nash and Blake sopping minutes, but of course with Nash's injury history he'll be good insurance, and can come on the cheap (minimum). We have already shown signs of wanting him to return by letting him know he can play in our summer league. So I'd pencil him into next season's roster.

So we're looking at
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: None
PF: Hill, Kelly
C: Gasol

Eight familiar guys on our roster (I'm assuming Ryan Kelly will make it, he's certainly talented enough--read my scouting report). We need at least four more guys, and likely five more guys to round it out.

We'll have about $70mil of salaries next year with Metta's amnesty, so I'm assuming we're right at around tax level ($70.307mil). So we'll only have our mini mid-level exception and veteran's minimum for other free agents. Unfortunately, many of the top free agents have already chosen teams, although almost all of them were out of our price range.

I doubt we'd make any trades, although if we're completely tanking, trading Nash won't be a horrendous option, since there's no way we'll win this year and the clock is ticking on his end. However, it's only going to be one year before we might have our books completely wiped clean--only Nash is under contract for the 2014 season and beyond. So I don't think we'll trade him. Just have our top vets sustain a mediocre season--don't think we have the limited talent, or the veterans who would allow it, to tank for Wiggins. Assuming we do fall in the late lottery though, in a deep draft, who knows if a Aaron Gordon or a Dante Exum or a Marcus Smart could fall to us. So really, I'd recommend an all-out tank, especially if Kobe takes a while to recover. A great draft pick would be very nice.

We badly need to replenish our forward positions--any small forward, backup PF and a starting or backup center are priorities. Obviously to one year deals, to preserve our cap space. We've lost a huge chunk of our defense with Dwight and can sorely use some of that.
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[b]FULL MINI MID-LEVEL OPTIONS:[/b]

First of all, I'd like to use the full mid-level on Oden, and we can sell him with minutes when we move Pau to PF, but I think he's going to take more than that amount of money to get. So, I'd really, really attempt to put our priorities on Samuel Dalembert as Pau's backup, likely with the full mid-level. That's the going rate for centers nowadays, especially since Dalembert still has vestiges of the rebounding and shotblocking he was known for, and while his dunking and defense have slipped a bit, he's still able at both fronts, and has a serviceable mid-range J. He gives us size and length.

If we can't get Dalembert, fall back for mini mid-level would be to go for Dallas's Brandan Wright--while his shotblocking's ahead of his defense and way ahead of his rebounding, his offensive game is exquisite--sweet mid-range shot, dunking, provides youth--and we'll need that to replace Jamison's offense. Yeah, he doesn't help with rebounding, but he'll plug other holes. He has the youth advantage over Dalembert for sure, but Dalembert will shore up the rebounding and provide enough offense to go with it, which is why he's first on the list.

If we want small forward first, given that we have zilch at the moment, Al-Farouq Aminu is available. He's starter quality, having started for New Orleans last year, and we need a starting small forward badly. He'll likely take the full mid-level, but he's an underrated on all things defender--he's excellent at rebounding, has great reflexes, and can really defend shots well. The problem is on the other end of the floor where he lacks skill and range, and at times allows his teams to play 4-on-5. But we need to emphasize defense and youth, and Aminu provides a lot of that. I put Dalembert in front because I like to have bigs more, but Aminu isn't a bad option. (FYI: I'd avoid Alan Anderson of Toronto if anyone was wondering--he can't defend his shadow, shot 38% from the field and for a supposed shooter he only made a third of his threes)
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[b]IF WE GET DALEMBERT, MINIMUM OPTIONS:[/b]

With Gasol, Kelly, and Hill all being more on the finesse end of athletes, assuming we get Dalembert, we might need a bruiser PF, and a SF to fill the remainder. Bruiser PFs I'd like for the minimum include Ivan Johnson from Atlanta and Jason Maxiell from Detroit. Kenyon Martin is of the same mold, but he's old enough to the point where I think it's more advantageous for him to join a contender. DeJuan Blair is likely out of our minimum price range, and we wouldn't want to use the full mini mid level on him to begin with. Lamar Odom, while on the old side, I think he'd like to come back for sentimental reasons--he might be had for the minimum, I think, and his defensive versatility could be of major use to us, but I think he might want to stay with a contender as well. I like how Maxiell has been homegrown, having stayed with Detroit throughout his NBA career, and he's an underrated rebounder and shotblocker who relishes the dirty work. He's way too undersized at 6'7" for a PF, but he's still as athletic as ever (55 dunks, finishes 68% at the rim) but has no range. Still, he's kind of what we'd like for our team. Ivan Johnson's also a bruiser, will dunk some, has reflexes for steals and has a workable offensive game, and might be underrated as well here, but he's not a shotblocker.

A SF I think we can get for the minimum, and to badly fill the starting spot--I'd really like James Johnson. He's a bit of a tweener--he doesn't really have the range to be a SF, but he moves like a SF and can pass the ball as well. He's a wild horse who doesn't know his limitations offensively and forces up jumpers, and with his lackluster Sacramento season we can capitalize with the minimum here. A 1 year minimum deal as a possible starter with Kobe guiding him could be a useful experience for him, especially since he's young and athletic. Defensively, he wasn't good this past season, but with his quickness and his ability to rack up steals AND blocks I think there's a lot of untapped potential here, for sure. He's one of the more interesting candidates.

My second option would be Carlos Delfino, hopefully we can get both James Johnson AND Delfino for the minimum because they'd complement each other. With him getting waived, even though he put up 10 a game last season, it might be possible to get him for the minimum. He's an underrated ballhandler, passer, and an excellent defender, both in contesting shots, deflecting passes and rebounding. And he's a preferred long range shooter who can really stroke it. He fills in the blanks extremely well for our team, with few weaknesses. It's hard to believe the Rockets waived him, but if they took Dwight from us, I think Delfino would be a great get for us.

Third option is Ronnie Brewer. Can we resuscitate his career? He's only 28, but he's badly faltering ever since his Utah days. He's been a pretty overrated defender in Utah--more good than great, more off-ball than on-ball--but he has good quickness, has been a great dunker and doesn't need the ball in his hands to succeed. Very mistake free player--doesn't turn the ball over, doesn't foul. Has completely lost confidence in scoring and range, both from the foul line and from the perimeter over the past few seasons, which has really hampered his career. But still, he's kind of a cheaper Al-Farouq Aminu clone, without the rebounding and with worse defense, but still. We could also try our hand in Terrence Williams--perhaps too flaky and immature, but in his rookie year he was a triple double threat with some really good passing ability. Very athletic too and has defensive potential. Poor shooter, but there's potential to work with here. Mickael Pietrus is another option here, an overzealous defender and a highly preferred but overrated three point shooter who's acquitted himself in the GS's run and gun well, so he'd be familiar with D'Antoni's schemes. He's older than Brewer though and more of a journeyman which is why he's further down this list though. I was a big fan of Derrick Brown in his Charlotte stint two years ago when he got minutes, sick dunk machine and very capable defender, but not much else. Still, athletic markers and youth are what we absolutely need. If anyone's wondering, not a fan of Hakim Warrick's lack of defense and rebounding, and he's nearing 30 and has an athletic-based game, so I'd avoid.

[b]IF WE GET AMINU, MINIMUM OPTIONS:[/b]

If we get Al-Farouq Aminu, to fill our center spot I'd like Zaza Pachulia. Something tells me he's worth more than the minimum though, but he's rugged, gets a ton of offensive boards and tries very hard on defense, albeit it's foul prone. But he has size, and I like how he's spent the past 8 years on one team (shows that Atlanta was willing to invest in him). But again, given he's worth more than the minimum (likely), that's why I don't want to put the eggs on the Aminu basket. Marreesse Speights might also want more than the minimum, and his game is hate-able because he loves stuffing his offensive numbers and doesn't do much else on defense and passing, but we'll need offense to replace Jamison, and he could be an able backup PF. Other options include Cole Aldrich, raw but could block shots in college, and was a lottery pick, and Hamed Haddadi is another underrated big man--he's raw and uncoordinated, but super tall, a rebounding machine and a space eater with some surprising touch around the rim. If we need big men shooters, for whatever reason, Josh Harrellson (threes/rebounds) and Donte Greene (attempted "threes/defense-mobility) are always available for the minimum. Birdman seems unlikely, of course.

[b]IF WE GET WRIGHT, MINIMUM OPTIONS:[/b]

Combinations of the other two: for small forward, again ideally it's the Carlos Delfino-James Johnson tandem we get, but there's also Ronnie Brewer, Terrence Williams, Mickael Pietrus, and Derrick Brown as fall backs. At center, Zaza Pachulia, but if not, Cole Aldrich or Hamed Haddadi could prove useful.
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So we need five more guys.

Just to recap:

Mini mid level: Ideally 1) Samuel Dalembert, 2) Brandan Wright, 3) Al-Farouq Aminu (in that order)

[b]Options[/b]:
SFs (get 2 if Dalembert or Wright, 1 if Aminu): Carlos Delfino, James Johnson, Ronnie Brewer, Terrence Williams, Mickael Pietrus, Derrick Brown
PFs (get 1 if Dalembert or Aminu): Jason Maxiell, Ivan Johnson, Marreese Speights, Donte Greene, Josh Harrellson (the last three options, only if we get Aminu)
Cs (get 1 if Wright or Aminu): Zaza Pachulia, Cole Aldrich, Hamed Haddadi

This gets us four for our 12-man roster, and we could have someone perhaps off summer league to fill in the remainder, or maybe someone off the options list above.

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[b]THE DALEMBERT DEAL: [/b]

Just to recap, the Dalembert deal is the most ideal to me. So with Dalembert, the ideal combination would be to sign Carlos Delfino, James Johnson and Jason Maxiell as well all to veteran minimum contracts, with another summer league player.

[u]Lineup configuration[/u]:
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: Delfino, James Johnson
PF: Hill, Maxiell, Kelly
C: Gasol, Dalembert
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[b]THE WRIGHT DEAL: [/b]

So with Wright, the ideal combination would be to sign Carlos Delfino, James Johnson and Zaza Pachulia  all to veteran minimum contracts, with another summer league player.

[u]Lineup configuration[/u]:
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: Delfino, James Johnson
PF: Hill, Brandan Wright, Kelly
C: Gasol, Pachulia
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[b]THE AMINU DEAL: [/b]

So with Aminu, the ideal combination would be to sign Carlos Delfino, Jason Maxiell and Zaza Pachulia  all to veteran minimum contracts, with another summer league player.

[u]Lineup configuration[/u]:
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: Delfino, Al Farouq-Aminu
PF: Hill, Maxiell, Kelly
C: Gasol, Pachulia

So that's where we stand. There's still a lot of bargain bin free agents out there.