FINAL MOCK UP? ACCOUNTING FOR PHYSICAL TOOLS

So the draft measurements just got released today. We found out information about each draftee's lateral quickness, end to end speed, vertical leap, strength (how many weights they can lift), and wingspan. I created an algorithm that gave weighting factors which benefited vertical leap, strength and wingspan--those are the three core factors that can spell success in the league. I built off my previous algorithm, so if you see a player jump a ton of spots--I'm looking at you, Orlando Johnson and Thomas Robinson, their physical tools are why. They really ranked well at that. Also, this is another element that translates well--while my models try to account for easily translatable statistical production skills relative to position (which is why Andrew Nicholson and Austin Rivers, guys I perceive as relatively one-dimensional, rank horribly), this element shows whether the player's build (not just height and weight, but more in depth) can truly translate. Without further ado, my algorithm churned out these player build rankings (only 56 players participated in the combine)

ANALYSIS OF THE DRAFT, MY MOCK SECOND ROUND

Continuing from the previous mock analysis....

Analysis of the draft, my mock first round

So we've done the quantitative allocations of numbers to prospects in the last post, but let's get to the heart of it and qualitatively explain why it's logical to pick them at that position. If they're expected to be at that position, from NBADraft, Draftexpress, I won't comment on it.

Without further ado...

NBA Draft Analysis, Revised and More Accurate

So you might have noticed in my last post that I just took the average number placements of both of my models (the statistical college NBA attributes model and the NBA body-skills model) and tried to get the sum average of those placements. Well...that was faulty. I had numbers that gave the players the proper weighting, but out of laziness I didn't do it. Well, now I have. Also, I've added a few more draft-likely players to the list, so we can get a greater representation. So here's my results now:

NBA Draft 2012: Analysis

So I've scouted this draft extensively, and created three different working models: one that accounts for NBA-translatable skills, such as rebounding, defensive plays (steals+blocks), mutual exclusion properties (my term for the rate of threes and free throw attempts a player takes), college strength of schedule (a player who comes from a division I obviously is stronger than one at a division III), and free throw shooting (a factor that generally stays constant regardless of league; also to make sure the player can shoot). Most of all, it's a model that rewards younger players: obviously, a college freshman is going to have far weaker stats than a college senior, so there's a weighting factor based on age and years in college that actually helps freshman a lot. Again, the younger the player, the more "potential" they have, since they have more mileage and athleticism when they come into the league, generally speaking.