My metric here now includes, in addition to favoring "intelligent" athletes like Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon, now has a stealing/rebounding metric which favors the Willie Cauley-Steins and Mitch McGarys. So assist rate and steal rate are now key (Sim Bhullar--that's how I dock you off, as you're underwater in both categories). Without further ado:
 |
| Round 1, 2014 Draft. |
 |
| Round 2, 2014 Draft. |
 |
| Undrafted, 2014 Draft. |
Newly declared Kristaps Porzingis makes his entry as the 18th best pick. His best assets are an ability to rack up steals and blocks in combination for his height.
Is Kendrick Perry an Isaiah Thomas clone with Ty Lawson attributes? Just throwing that out there...but in five years, don't be surprised if you go back to this page and said, "Damn. That guy was right."
Lunchpail rebounding/finishing/stealing Mitch McGary gets a slot in the late 1st round. Yes!
Is Jake Odum a poor man's Jason Kidd? There are rebounding and defensive playmaking metrics definitely on his side, and foul drawing too. Kendall Marshall he is not, as Marshall was broad-based awful in those areas.
I'm going to lump the concerns about CleAnthony Early and Adreian Payne together. Both are seniors on the older side, who score well--but are really, really hampered by awful assist numbers that might completely hamper them. Considering they are seniors and still sport awful assist to turnover ratios against players younger than them, that's a huge red flag. Early ranks higher because even though he's effectively a 6'8" center in handles and vision, I have reason to believe he's a better scorer for sure, and possibly better shooter than Payne (both in 2-pointers and free throws). Payne rebounds better and gets more blocks, but I'm not completely convinced he can really shoot the ball from deep, and his rebound and defensive playmaking rate are decent but not great by position. But, really. It's the assist rate, above anything else. Really, really important. Payne had focus issues early in his career, and I question whether he's a high b-ball IQ type player with an assist rate like that.
Doug McDermott slides another ten spots down to 39. He has a very low assist rate and steal rate--he isn't going to work in an algorithm that emphasizes this, and to be honest that's more generous than my first ranking when I had him at 57th. There's some emphasis to scoring and percentages here that do save him somewhat.
I moved Sim Bhullar down! *rejoice* Basically, ask yourself this question: how many sub 6-foot guards are there in the league over post-7'2" centers? There are more sub-6 footers, so we have to penalize the super tall ones, which I did. Quite significantly, using a height factor. There--so all you people calling Bhullar a stiff can be satisfied now.
No other surprises. We all know Rodney Hood is a big bust. Also, avoid overhyped gunner guards like Jordan Clarkson and Jabari Brown.
Now for the 2015 Draft...
 |
| 2015 1st Round, An Early Look. |
 |
| 2015 2nd Round, An Early Look. |
 |
| 2015, Undrafted Candidates. |
Well, now that I've encoded metrics that really emphasize steals, look who really flies up--Briante Weber. Weber's more of a caretaker PG because he doesn't handle the ball or shoot the ball from deep, but his stealing and rebounding metrics are extremely impressive. His free throw percentage is good, which gives hope to the abysmal three point numbers, too. I think he'll eke out an interesting role. Not a starter because everyone loves scoring point guards, but he plays within himself and there's a lot of athleticism at work. And you need athletic points.
Willie Cauley-Stein moves up. If he entered this draft he'd be 18th. Hey, at least that's ahead of Julius Randle. I have a few concerns about his defensive rebounding above anything else, and his free throw shooting and lack of scoring (even DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond had better scoring rates in their freshmen years compared to Cauley-Stein's sophomore year). So that's why he's there.
Wichita State sports Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet as their major first rounders. That CleAnthony Early guy? So overrated. It's Baker and VanVleet doing the work. Louisiana Tech also has a guard called Alex Hamilton. Villanova has a super talented freshman no one knows named Josh Hart. But they will know him soon.
Branden Dawson moves up. Remember Jerome Williams? The Junkyard Dog? Dawson reminds me of that. Underrated passer too--he's intelligent. That's why he's there.
TaShawn Thomas is a major sleeper, but presumably transferring out of Houston (according to reports). He's a NBA talent.
Sorry. I can't rescue Montrezl Harrell with the same algorithm that I used to rescue McGary and Cauley-Stein. He led college in dunks, but so what? I'm not sure he can do much on offense beyond dunking, and he doesn't rebound well enough (or make enough defensive plays) for me to be super confident on the defensive end (not to mention average height at 6'9").
Andrew Harrison is so overrated by draft outlets (both Harrisons are, but Andrew is SIGNIFICANTLY worse). So is Wayne Selden.
Undrafted candidates? Jabari Bird is just a shooter. Dime a dozen. Show a few more edges to his game, that is necessary. Caris LeVert is coming across the same way. Marcus Lee somehow had 0 steals in 24 games this season (how is that possible?). Kaleb Tarczewski is heading down bust-ville--in particular, how can a 7-footer block so few shots for his size? Chris Walker is all athleticism (that matters, but he's not hitting the relevant metrics, and his game feels awfully unintelligent--drawing more fouls and improving on that free throw percentage will help, but that assist rate--yikes). Alex Poythress was overrated his first year, and this year--well, it speaks for itself.
No comments:
Post a Comment