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| 2014 NBA Draft, First Round Talent. |
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| 2014 NBA Draft, Second Round Talent. |
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| 2014 NBA Draft, Undrafted Type Talent. |
Any surprises? First things first: this is a European strong draft. The tall, burly European bigs rank well--Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic--and both will be major steals (Nurkic is projected as a mid-1st rounder, or late lottery at best; Jokic, is considered an early to mid-2nd rounder by most outlets). The stat geek consensus has ALWAYS been high on Jordan Adams, and this one is no different; he hits a ton of metrics few do, and he ranks 7th. Damien Inglis and Clint Capela really scored strongly as well; for Inglis, that's another major steal candidate. He's only 19 and he's quite productive in the core metrics I chart.
Because I now account for upside, Elfrid Payton really rises to where the consensus places him--early 20s (22nd here in my mock). Aaron Gordon saw a rise to 16th as well, but I still think his shooting and a few other issues make him fall short of a direct lottery talent. The shooters fell, and that's the way it should be: scouts often use their "eye" test on athleticism, and that often manifests itself the most in steals, blocks, and perhaps 2-point percentage. Doug McDermott's awful steal and block rates saw him down to the last pick in the first round, and that's the consensus: his offense will likely be shrunk, but the fact that he's undersized and will need to covered up on defense makes him a pick down in the middle, despite his offensive exploits. Nik Stauskas saw a similar drop to 20th due to athleticism concerns.
People keep asking me...why is 7'5", purported stiff, Sim Bhullar so high? To be fair, I have an additive counter for height relative to position, so Sim gains a ton of points there. I'm thinking about flipping it for centers, because face it, center is the only position where after a certain height, there are diminishing returns. We don't see too many behemoths there nowadays. Sim's been productive in core center stats, and it's hard to tell he's a stiff based on the counting stats.
There are several senior guards--Davion Berry and Kendrick Perry--who really deserve longer looks, as they rank into the 1st round. Both played at Portsmouth this year. Berry in particular might serve as a shooting guard doppelganger to fellow Weber State guard Damian Lillard--poor steal rate, but has a bag of offensive tricks, both inside and outside the three point line, and he's a respectable passer. Perry hits a lot of core metrics even though he's short, but the guy has a 6'6" wingspan.
The scorers don't rate well. As stat geeks will tell you, scoring is one of the least valuable predictors of NBA success--because it's so common. That's reflected in TJ Warren and CleAnthony Early, who are early to late 30s type picks. Warren might have a bunch of nifty runners and floaters, but he doesn't draw fouls, rebound, or defend as he should be, so he might be situational.
There are also a bunch of international players littered through the 2nd round. Guillem Vives and Moussa Diagne, two guys who might make the casual fan watching television on draft night go "who the hell is that guy?" are real sleepers. I have Vives rated as a 6'4" PG with a good game inside the three point line, and Diagne fell from my latest mock, but is an athletic, tall big.
The 50s are littered with older players or upperclassmen. I've tried to find some combination of metrics that would elevate McGary, but...as of now, he's just generic. He gets some steals and blocks, rebounds extremely well, and can finish at the rim. He rose from using my new potential rater, but I don't feel that I should give that rater greater precedence just to help McGary even more. He's a late 2nd round pick in my book.
There's also familiar names like Nick Johnson, Markel Brown, Jordan Clarkson...all at the back half of the 2nd. These players all have their weaknesses, besides age to some degree. I feel like Johnson and Clarkson were in a catch 22--they couldn't raise their stock any more than they did had they returned, and right now they are likely at their apex, but according to metrics, it isn't quite good enough. Johnson would be best served to gain point guard skills, and Clarkson can hone them, but you are what you are at this stage, so there's that.
Undrafted surprises: Adreian Payne. I was torn here. If you read my primer, I've actually liked the guy's game, and can see him as a floor spacer and a plus defender in the league, and frankly, that's all you need. But, he's old. The front half of his career was poor (if it was good, he would have left college by now). So, there's that question: which one is the real Payne? Payne has improved every year since his sophomore year though, but that question still lingers, and my metric docks him severely for the front half, unfortunately. And age. Age. Age.
Rodney Hood. Nothing to say here. Every stat geek hates him. He's the one guy in the mid-1st round, besides Payne, who seems to rank poorly. He's ranked poorly in the algorithm I've started out with and every subsequent algorithm. The guy can create shots from the mid-range, but everything else is a con. It's amazing how he's even ranked high by draft outlets.
Dwight Powell, Semaj Christon, DeAndre Daniels, and Jahii Carson are all hype and likely very little game for the NBA.
And now here's a special addendum...the 2015 draft, an early look:
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| Early 2015 NBA Draft, 1st Round Talent. |
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| Early 2015 NBA Draft, 2nd Round Talent. |
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| Early 2015 NBA Draft, Undrafted Type Talent. |
Comments here: Delon Wright is the real deal. Every single one of the metrics loves him. Even my scouting report primer loves the guy. He's Dorell Wright's younger brother, but he plays in obscurity down at Utah. Had he entered the 2014 Draft, I had him as a mid-lottery pick (7th) talent-wise. Really athletic finisher who is a 6'5" point guard. A legit point guard--he was within my point guard inset metrics, not just a combo.
Stat geeks all love Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (who really rose after my potential metric was added in) and Frank Kaminsky, so no need for further comment. All of them could have easily been first round picks, talent-wise in this draft. RJ Hunter is a personal favorite of mine as a Danny Green clone.
The first international, Aleksandar Vezenkov, has very poor steal, block and foul drawing markers, but he passes well for his size and can score both on 2's and 3's quite efficiently. And all that at age 19. He's someone to take a longer look at, even if he plays an old man's game. That didn't stop Dario Saric.
Ron Baker is someone who ranks well. He's very efficient inside the 2-point line in additional to the three point line, and draws fouls and pinch point guard. He doesn't have great defensive metrics, which isn't surprising, but there's something Nik Stauskas-esque about him. Unfortunately, until the tourney, no one knew who he was, and that's the problem, as with Delon Wright; visibility.
Jerian Grant and Alan Williams are stat geek favorites as well. Jerian can't score inside the three point line but he's a legitimate 6'5" PG. Alan Williams puts up metrics that reek of a 6'10" big. If he were 6'11" he's a lottery pick. I acquired some dunk data and Williams rarely dunks. I didn't penalize him for that, but that might be reflected in his low 2-point percentages.
Shaq Goodwin remind anyone of a DeMarre Carroll once he enters the league?
I'm not sure why my metric really hates Willie Cauley-Stein the way the draft sites seem to love him. It also hates Montrezl Harrell (mid-2nd rounder) and Mitch McGary, so maybe there's something about big men who finish and defend well that it hates. Joel Embiid didn't suffer from it though (as the consensus #1 pick), although Cauley-Stein's inability to corral defensive boards and awful scoring/foul-shooting numbers are something to note.
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