This is going to be an analysis of all rookies who played meaningful minutes this year, using the advanced metrics in the past several posts:
1) Anthony Davis--On offense, Davis has a pretty poor skill canvas as far as power forwards are concerned, and he also has a poor jumper although he mostly prefers to play around the basket, but his foundation here is very good since he dunks frequently and draws fouls. Defensively, Davis is a mixed bag--while he's second on his team in hard defense, his soft defense is lacking.
2) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist--Kidd-Gilchrist has a pretty good skill canvas for a SF, and he's a poor jumpshooter who plays around the rim most of the time, where he dunks frequently and draws fouls. What's particularly amazing is that Kidd-Gilchrist is a top notch defender both in hard and soft defense, although he's way better in hard defense (leads his team in it). He's an optimized athlete on both offense and defense, joining about 20 other NBA players, which gives him a lot of potential going forward.
3) Bradley Beal--Beal has a pretty poor skill canvas for a SG, and moreover operates as someone with a slight identity crisis on offense--he's a high volume jumpshooter and while not super poor, is pretty borderline as far as shooting goes this season. But, there's a lot of subliminal things to like about Beal's offense--he's an "offensive athletic jumpshooter", and the only rookie representative in this list--meaning that whenever he sees the rim, despite being a jumpshooter, he does a good job of drawing fouls and dunking. Moreover, Beal is a top notch defender in both soft and hard defense--he isn't uber at any, but is very good at both. This means that Beal is somewhat of an optimized athlete on both ends of the floor, and that gives him a ton of potential going forward even through a questionable jumper.
4) Dion Waiters--Waiters has an excellent skill level for his position and operates mostly as a slasher with a poor jumper. But as a slasher, he dunks and draws fouls very well. The problem is, his defense is flat out atrocious--both soft and hard, but in particularly the soft, as he's Cleveland's worst soft defender. This gives the impression that Waiters is strictly an offensive athlete, joining only about 12 other players in the league.
5) Thomas Robinson--Robinson has a pretty poor skill canvas as far as PFs go, and he's also a mixed bag on offense and defense. He operates mostly as an inside scorer and has a poor jumper, but his inside scoring, while he dunks frequently, sees very little in foul drawing. Similarly, Robinson's defense is a mixed bag--while he's an able hard defender, he's bottom two among the Rockets in soft defense. At this point there's nothing he can really hang his hat on either end, which is why he struggled getting minutes in his rookie year. Some bust potential.
6) Damian Lillard--Lillard has a good skill level for a PG and operates as a high volume, great shooting jumpshooter. When he attacks the rim, he also dunks frequently and draws fouls somewhat. The problem is on the other end--Lillard is both an awful soft and hard defender; while he isn't bottom two in his team in either one, this means that he's an offensive athlete. While he's better than Waiters because he's a very good jumpshooter with offensive athletic traits, rather than just being an inside finisher, this limits his overall upside somewhat.
7) Harrison Barnes--Barnes has a poor skill level for a SF and operates mostly as a slasher with a poor jumper, but he optimizes his finishing ability by dunking and drawing fouls well. The problem is that his defense is atrocious--he's weak in both soft and hard defense, but particularly on hard defense, where he's bottom two in the Warriors in this category. This means that he's mostly an offensive athlete, limiting his overall upside somewhat.
8) Terrence Ross--Ross has a poor skill canvas for his position, but moreover has an identity crisis on offense where he's a high volume, but poor shooting jumpshooter, and to boot when he attacks the rim he seriously struggles to draw fouls, a continuation of college trends, although he had more dunks than layups (still he didn't meet my 50 layup cutoff, which shows how much of a jumpshooter he really is). Ross is a nondescript overall defender in both hard and soft defense. He was completely nonviable on offense and didn't play good enough defense to make up for it, so it wasn't surprising he got few minutes. He's got great bust potential.
9) Andre Drummond--Drummond has a good skill level for a center, which is quite amazing, because he's a rookie and he was considered raw out of college. He's mostly an inside guy with a poor jumper, but he dunks frequently and draws fouls. Also, for a rookie, he's a top notch defender--both in soft and hard defense, but particularly in hard defense where he leads Detroit. It's rare to see an optimized athletic center on both ends of the court, and along with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and John Henson he's the only other rookie among the twenty or so players in this list. As a center in particular, this means he has cornerstone potential.
10) Austin Rivers--Rivers has an excellent skill canvas for a SG, and operates mostly as a a below-the-rim slasher with a poor jumper--and his jumper's incredibly poor, being in the bottom five of SGs in this category (fifth worst). He does draw fouls. Rivers is a nondescript overall defender, soft and hard. Rivers' below-the-rim slashing with foul drawing has some potential, but the only real standout athletic marker is foul drawing, so there isn't much upside with him.
11) Meyers Leonard--Leonard has a poor skill level for his position, and operates mostly as a jumpshooter where he actually has a good jumper. For a jumpshooter, he draws fouls a little bit and dunks a lot, so he's somewhat of an offense-athletic jumpshooter, if a bit borderline. On the flip end, Leonard is completely awful and unready on defense, being incredibly weak on both soft and hard defense--he's the worst in Portland in hard defense, and second worst in soft defense. He's very much an offensive athlete, more or less, but his defense is even more awful than the other offensive athletes above.
12) Jeremy Lamb--Did not play enough minutes.
13) Kendall Marshall--When doing my algorithms, I found Marshall to be one of the worst lottery picks we've seen in a long time. Possibly ever. Why? For starters, he's a high volume, poor shooting jumpshooter with an identity crisis, with an awful skill level for his position, PG. With the jumper, in particular, he's the third-worst shooting jumpshooter among PGs, that's how awful it is. Even though he doesn't attack the rim, he's possibly the least athletic PG--he has one of the lowest free throw rates for his position, and has zero dunks this year despite standing 6'4"--if he's this unathletic as a rookie, when he ages it will get gruesome. And that's even the worst of it--Marshall is an absolutely atrocious defender, on par with Meyers Leonard, in both soft and hard defense. He's worst in Phoenix in soft defense, and second worst in hard defense, so there's absolutely zero upside on this end of the floor. There's absolutely no strength here and he has an identity crisis, so he's easily one of the safest picks to be a bust in this draft.
14) John Henson--Henson believe it or not actually has good skill level for a PF, and operates mostly as an inside player with a poor jumper. And man, that jumper is poor--Henson's the fourth worst jumpshooter among PFs. Still, Henson dunks frequently and draws fouls somewhat. But again, here's another rookie that's a top notch defender--Henson excels at both soft and hard defense, in particular in hard defense where he's second in that category in Milwaukee. He's been incredibly underrated and is actually a rare breed, in that he's an optimized athlete at both ends of the court, where only about 20 other NBA players can say that. And 1 of three rookies. He was highly valued from my algorithm, so it's no surprise he's flashing this potential here.
15) Moe Harkless--Harkless has a poor skill canvas for a SF, and operates mostly as a slasher with a poor jumper. But his slashing is a mixed bag--while he dunks frequently he doesn't draw fouls. Harkless is a nondescript defender on the other end. Overall, he's mostly just a dunker, and while people have lauded him for a good rookie season I still think it can go either way. He doesn't seem terribly skilled on offense and his defense isn't as good as his frame would suggest.
16) Royce White--Did not play enough minutes.
17) Tyler Zeller--Zeller has a poor skill canvas for a center, and operates mostly as a high volume, good jumpshooting center. But that's where the strengths end. Zeller's rare at-rim attempts see little dunking and few foul drawing for his position, and on defense he's extremely awful in both soft and hard, but in particular with the hard defense, where he's the worst on Cleveland. Zeller joins one of three rookies, and among 34 NBA players, to be lumped into the "no defense, no athleticism" category. He's seriously deficient in athleticism and it's questionable whether he has enough to sustain himself in the league for a while.
18) Terrence Jones--Did not play enough minutes.
19) Andrew Nicholson--Nicholson has a poor skill canvas for a PF, and operates a high volume, good shooting jumpshooter. However, like Zeller, his rare at rim attempts see little dunking and few foul drawing for his position. On defense, he's mixed--he's a decent soft defender but the second worst hard defender in Orlando. He doesn't seem that athletic, besides the soft defense, so it's questionable whether he has enough to sustain himself in the league for a while.
20) Evan Fournier--Did not meet my 50 layup cutoff, but man, looked good towards the end of the season.
21) Jared Sullinger--Sullinger has a good skill canvas for a PF, and actually flashed a lot of potential before he went down in Boston. He's an infrequent jumpshooter, but a good one. Mostly, he operates as a below the rim inside finisher, although he struggles to draw fouls, which puts him in an ignoble class of 26 NBA players who mostly play around the rim but struggle to dunk or draw fouls. On defense, Sullinger is top notch in both hard and soft defense, but he particularly excels in soft defense where he's second in Boston. That's amazing for a rookie, but even more amazing for a rookie who isn't particularly athletic. There seems to be a reasonable foundation to be the next Zach Randolph or David Lee here, both of whom were among those 26 NBA players, so Sullinger, provided he stays upright, actually has a lot of two-way potential here.
22) Fab Melo--Did not play enough minutes.
23) John Jenkins--Jenkins has a poor skill canvas for a SG and operates as a high volume good shooting jumpshooter. But his rare attempts at the rim reveal him to be unathletic, with low free throw rates and dunk rates. On defense, Jenkins is somewhat mixed, but second worst in Atlanta in soft defense. He's strictly a jumpshooter in this league and is frankly an interchangeable player.
24) Jared Cunningham
25) Tony Wroten
26) Miles Plumlee
--Not enough minutes.
27) Arnett Moultrie--Moultrie has an awful skill canvas for a PF, and operates mostly an inside player with a poor jumper. His inside game is mixed--while he dunks, he struggles to draw fouls. On defense, he's flat out atrocious--weak in both soft and hard defense, but particularly soft, where he's second worst in Philadelphia. He's an interchangeable player and can be out of the league pretty soon, given that there's not much to work with.
28) Perry Jones
29) Marquis Teague
--Not enough minutes.
30) Festus Ezeli--Ezeli has the second worst skill canvas in the league--second worst among centers. He mostly operates as an inside player, with a poor jumper--check that. Awful jumper--fifth worst among centers. Festus's offense is so horrible he was unable to meet my 50 layup cutoff, but he did have more dunks than layups, and a high free throw rate, so he's athletic. On defense, Festus is nondescript. He's incredibly raw on offense that he needs excellent defense to make up for that, but he doesn't bring that, so he might be out of the league soon.
31) Jeff Taylor--Taylor has a poor skill canvas among SFs and operates mostly as a slasher with a poor jumper, but he has athletic traits--he draws fouls and dunks in doing so. Defensively, Taylor is very mixed--he's Charlotte's weakest hard defender but their third best soft defender. For a second round pick, he has a excellent foundation of inside offense and slight elements of defense, and that's good money for a role player.
32) Tomas Satoransky--Europe.
33) Bernard James--James has a poor skill level for a center and works as an inside player with a poor jumper, but he draws fouls somewhat although he didn't meet my 50 layup requirement to chart his dunk rate. On defense, he's awful on both soft and hard, but not bottom two in either one. He's a fringe NBA player, for sure, and there doesn't appear to be much to work with.
34) Jae Crowder--Along with Kendall Marshall and Tyler Zeller, Crowder was the other rookie that stuck out to me as awful. Crowder has a poor skill level for a small forward and operates offensively with an identity crisis--he's a high volume, but poor shooting jumpshooter. In addition, on his rare ventures to the basket Crowder doesn't dunk much or draw fouls. Finally, Crowder's awful on both soft and hard defense, although he's not bottom two in Dallas in either one. He's one of 34 ignominous NBA players with no defense and no athleticism, including the two rookies mentioned above. On top of the identity crisis on offense, Crowder doesn't appear to be NBA material.
35) Draymond Green--Green has a poor skill canvas for a small forward and operates with an identity crisis--he's a high volume but poor shooting jumpshooter, and looking deeper into his at rim attempts he struggles to dunk and draw fouls as well. But on defense he's extremely top notch on both soft and hard defense--first in soft defense, and second in hard defense, in Golden State. It's rare for someone this unathletic to play such great defense, especially for a rookie, and while his offense looks horrific between the lack of athleticism and the identity crisis his defense more than offsets it, especially for a second round pick. Steal.
36) Orlando Johnson--Johnson has a poor skill canvas for a SG but operates as a high volume, good shooting jumpshooter. He doesn't draw fouls well and didn't meet my 50 layup criteria, so he appears to be below the rim in his attempts at the basket. But Johnson appears to be a top notch defender, yet another rookie who ranks in this department, particularly being second in Indiana in hard defense. Johnson's ability to drill jumpers and play top notch defense give him a lot of two-way potential role player aspect in this league, and he's a major steal (better than guys like Jeff Taylor/Moe Harkless/etc). He also ranked well in my college algorithm so I'm not surprised.
37) Quincy Acy--Didn't meet 50 layup cutoff. Really good PER however.
38) Quincy Miller
39) Khris Middleton
--Didn't play enough games.
40) Will Barton--Didn't meet 50 layup cutoff. PER seems to hate him.
41) Tyshawn Taylor
--Didn't play enough games.
42) Doron Lamb--Lamb has a poor skill canvas for a SG, and he mostly operates as a slasher with a poor jumper. Scratch that. Make that awful jumper. Third worst among SGs. Kind of surprising, given that he was billed as a shooter out of college. Lamb also struggles to draw fouls, and didn't meet my 50-layup cutoff, although it's presumed he lacks athleticism. On defense, Lamb is atrocious--awful at soft and hard, and in fact bottom two in both categories for Milwaukee. He doesn't have any strengths at all which makes him out of the league material soon. As predicted by my algorithm as well.
43) Mike Scott
--Didn't play enough games.
44) Kim English--English has a poor skill level for a SG and operates mostly as a slasher with a poor jumper. He draws fouls well but didn't meet my 50 layup cutoff for dunks. On defense, he's atrocious in both soft and hard defense, in particular being the worst in soft defense for Detroit. There's some slashing potential but he needs to develop his offense to offset his defense, otherwise he's out of the league.
45) Justin Hamilton
--Didn't play
46) Darius Miller--Miller has a poor skill level for a SF but operates as a high volume good jumpshooter. Make that great jumpshooter. Miller's the second best jumpshooter among SFs in the league. Looking closer at his at rim attempts Miller struggles to draw fouls and didn't meet my 50 layup cutoff, and on defense he's nondescript. Still, a 2nd round pick who shoots like that while playing average defense? That has a role in the league, for sure.
Other notables....
49) Kyle O'Quinn--O'Quinn actually has a good skill canvas for a center and operates as an inside player, although he doesn't draw fouls and didn't meet my 50-layup cutoff. However, he's another one of those rookies who plays top notch defense, both soft and hard, particularly being second in Orlando in hard defense. Just for his defense alone he's a major steal at this position.
Other rookies:
Jonas Valanciunas--Valanciunas has poor skill level for a center, but operates as an inside player who draws fouls and dunks frequently, and believe it or not he actually has a good jumper even if he infrequently takes them. On defense he's nondescript. He's worth investing in because unlike Meyers Leonard, he has an athletic inside game with some jumper ability and he doesn't hemorrhage on defense, even if he's not top notch there either.
Kyle Singler--Singler has a poor skill level for a SF, and operates predominantly as a slasher, although he makes an ignominous list of about 30 NBA players here--he doesn't dunk or draw fouls. However, in his rare attempts at shooting from the outside he's a good jumpshooter. He's a nondescript defender. Overall, perhaps he should switch up his shot selection to more jumpers, because there isn't much that is viable or a go-to talent for the NBA here.
Chris Copeland--Copeland has poor skill level for a SF and operates as a slasher, but he doesn't dunk often nor does he draw fouls for the position. He actually has a good jumper in his rare attempts at shooting from outside. Copeland plays atrocious defense--soft and hard--and while he's not in the bottom two of either in New York, he's among over thirty NBA players who have the combination of no athleticism and no defense. He's not really NBA material, but could improve somewhat if he'd take more jumpers instead of slashing to the basket.
Alexey Shved--Shved has an excellent skill canvas for SG, but has an identity crisis--he's a high volume, poor shooting jumpshooter. But there's more hope than your typical identity crisis player here--Shved actually is an "offensive athletic jumpshooter"--which means that in his rare attempts at the rim, he does a good job of dunking and drawing fouls, part of a unique select class of about 20 NBA players. On defense, Shved is nondescript, soft and hard. Overall, Shved on the surface looks to be a disappointment offensively, but that offensive-athletic trait along with the excellent skill canvas is hard to ignore and gives him a reasonable platform to improve off of.
Brian Roberts--Roberts has good skill level for a PG and operates a high volume, good shooting jumpshooter. However, in his rare at rim attempts Roberts struggles to draw fouls and didn't meet my 50 layup minimum cutoff, and also he plays awful soft and hard defense, even if he isn't bottom two in either one in New Orleans. Still, there's a severe lack of athleticism at work here, and Roberts strikes as a journeyman sharpshooter who will try to use offense to make up for his lack of defense.
Donatas Motiejunas--Motiejunas has poor skill level for a PF, and actually has an identity crisis as a high volume, poor shooting jumpshooter. Rare at-rim attempts show Motiejunas struggles to draw fouls and he didn't meet up my 50-layup minimum, and on defense he's atrocious in both soft and hard, but in particular with hard defense where he's the worst hard defender in Houston. Motiejunas literally has no go-to aspect in the NBA and everything appears to be a weakness, so he might be out of the league soon.
Patrick Beverley--Beverley has a poor skill canvas for a PG, and he operates as a high volume, good shooting jumpshooter. Beverley also does a good job of drawing fouls in his rare attempts at the rim, and although he didn't meet my 50 layup cutoff, he appears to be in the offensive-athlete mold and has had dunk reels before. Moreover, Beverley, for a rookie, is a top notch defender in both soft and hard, but particularly soft, where he leads Houston in soft defense. He appears to maximize his athleticism on both ends of the floor for a jumpshooter, and is joining that select class of about 20 NBA players. He's vastly underrated on both ends of the floor.
Nando DeColo--DeColo has poor skill level for a SG, and operates mostly as an inside slasher with a poor jumper. However, his slashing game sees few dunks and foul drawing ability, putting him in an exclusive ignominous class of offensive-unathletic slashers of about 30 NBA players. DeColo is a nondescript defensive player. Overall, he doesn't really look like NBA material.
Victor Claver--Claver has an awful skill level for a SF, and operates as a slasher with a poor jumper. However, he doesn't draw fouls as a slasher, and he didn't meet the 50-layup cutoff for tabulating his dunk rate. Claver also plays atrocious defense in both soft and hard aspects, in particular being the worst soft defender in Portland. Overall, he doesn't really look like NBA material.
DeQuan Jones--Jones has a poor skill canvas for a SF and acts as a slasher with a poor jumper, but while he dunks often he doesn't draw fouls well. Jones also plays atrocious defense, both soft and hard, but in particular being Orlando's worst soft defender. He's somewhat of an offensive athlete and largely just a dunker, so he's interchangeable and likely not NBA material for long.
Chris Johnson--Johnson has an awful skill canvas for a PF, and operates as a inside finisher with a poor jumper. Johnson draws fouls well but didn't meet my 50-layup minimum for dunks, but he's an awful soft/hard defender in particular being Minnesota's worst soft defender. He appears to be a fringe NBA player and not for long in this league, mostly based off his foul drawing and finishing.
Pablo Prigioni--Prigioni has good skill level for a PG but moreover is a high volume, great shooting jumpshooter--in fact, he's 4th among PGs in the accuracy of his jumper. Prigioni is unathletic however--his rare at rim attempts doesn't see foul drawing and he has zero dunks, understandable though given his age. Defensively, Prigioni is top notch--he defends both soft/hard well, but in particular soft where he's second best in New York. He's got good skills, a sweet jumper, and is a top notch defender, so he's one of the more underrated rookies for sure.
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