Friday, March 28, 2014

MOCK DRAFT 2014, SCOUTING REPORT BASED ON JORKVSBBALL ALGORITHM






Here's my mock draft for the first round:

1) Joel Embiid
--Scoring minded center who is a top notch finisher off set ups, with decent offensive rebounding. Just OK ability to draw fouls given frequency of at-rim attempts. Good passer for size, but for a set-up type, has to watch for turnovers.
--Absolutely zero range, corroborated by poor free throw numbers.
--Excellent build for a NBA center. Defensive behemoth, with an elite rating that would have ranked second last year in the NCAA on defense. Elite defensive rebounder. Elite defensive playmaker, not just with a ton of blocks but also some ability to get steals. Only problem here is has a super high foul rate which is why he does play beyond 18 minutes per game. Overall elite defensive attributes coupled with top notch at-rim finishing game reminds of Greg Oden.

2) Jusuf Nurkic
--Center with an excellent scoring rate, but does not pass the ball.
--Good two point percentages, and currently beasting on the offensive glass, although carries a fairly average offensive rebounding aggregate. OK foul shooter as far as bigs are concerned, and has an excellent foul drawing framework.
--Good frame for an NBA center. Good rebounder with decent enough defensive rebound rates. Absolute defensive hack who will struggle to last even half of an NBA game with sky high foul rates, but is a very active defensive playmaker, with very good stealing numbers for frame but also good shotblocking rates as well. A center with a legitimate scoring mentality, aggressive offensive rebounding rates, some touch and an active defensive disposition, and ultimately only his hack mentality is really holding him back.

3) Marcus Smart
--Dynamic shooting guard who possesses the top-notch usage rate, ability to utilize the entire floor, and isolation skills (only 35.75% of his shots are assisted) of a lead guard in the NBA.
--Decent finisher, but real advantage lies in his excellent foul-drawing ability. Takes too many mid-range and three point jumpers off the dribble for his percentages (35% 2's, 29% 3's), but good free throw percentage gives hope. His slashing ability is the better option in the NBA. Has passing ability for a SG, but has to beware of turnovers.
--Defensive monster. Insane stealer but also an excellent shotblocker for his size. Top notch rebounder. Decent frame. Two-way star potential. Has the potential to be a Dwyane Wade type in the NBA.

4) Jordan Adams
--Possible mutual exclusion candidate with his ability to take threes and draw fouls, effectively using the entire floor.
--Very compact, mature scorer. Spot-up shooting guard, does an excellent job of scoring without the ball in his hands. Good finisher and foul drawer at the rim off passes, and appears far better at finishing when set up. Excellent mid-range shooter (45%, 38%) further confirmed by free throw shooting (82%, 84%). However, of note is that his at-rim finishing and mid-range shooting have really regressed this season. Improving spot up three point shooter, but might be fairly average in this aggregate, although mid-range and free throw shooting give hope. Not much of a passer, but does an excellent job of limiting turnovers, not surprising given his style of play.
--Decent defender. Makes a ton of defensive plays with steals. Good frame for a NBA SG. Fair rebounder who has improved significantly here from freshman year. Might be a good tertiary scorer over time in the NBA, but lacks the passing and the ability to create offense for himself to take it up another level, but brings defensive attributes including stealing to the table, so somewhat underrated.

5) Jabari Parker
--Scoring machine of a power forward. Commands a super high usage rate and aggressively puts himself in spot-up scoring positions, mostly from the perimeter. Puts the blinders on and does not pass the ball with spot-up style.
--Bread and butter is top notch mid-range shooting (53.7%). Also really cashes in on spot-up threes (46.2%), but some sample size concerns and free throw shooting is just OK, but shooting should still be very good in the aggregate, given overall usage. Just an OK finisher at best for size off a mix of set ups and improvisation, but doesn't offensive rebound or draw fouls well given frequency of attempts.
--Just an OK frame as far as a NBA power forward is concerned, and might be a little undersized. Slightly subpar defender. Decent defensive rebounder. Good defensive playmaker off a combination of steals and blocks. Spot-up mid-range scoring machine with some extra range is his billing, and has some defensive attributes, but nothing all that special there. His upside might be limited by his inability to play at the rim well, create or pass, and the overall defense is somewhat in question. A bit like Derrick Williams or Michael Beasley, possibly with better shooting, at this stage.

6) Delon Wright
--Oversized PG with just OK usage but very good isolation ability (29.98% shots assisted), and at his level, has found a balance of good scoring and PG-like passing within the usage. Good ballhandler for levels of isolation as well.
--Takes most of his shots as drives off the dribble, where he is an elite finisher at his level, and decent at drawing fouls given frequency. Has jumper potential as well: good free throw shooter on a sizable number of attempts, and has a good pull-up jumper albeit in few attempts. Very questionable long range shot, between efficiency and sample size, and takes most of those off the dribble.
--Plays elite, smothering defense which might well be the very best in the NCAA right now. Elite build for a NBA PG, but sorely lacking strength. Excellent defensive playmaker who can get steals and even block shots, and controls fouls very well considering. Excellent rebounder for position, especially with elite value on defensive glass for position. Just all-around excellent in defensive fundamentals, defensive athleticism, and rebounding, with the height: has virtually no flaws in this area. Has major potential, especially on defense, where he is broad-based excellent, but also on offense, where he can get into triple threat positions mid-range in: pull-up, slash, or pass while handling the ball well. Major NBA sleeper potential, especially as Dorell Wright's younger brother.

7) Andrew Wiggins
--Scoring-minded small forward who takes half of his shots as preferred set-up shots at the rim. Just a decent finisher and just a decent ability to draw fouls given attempts. Good ballhandler given creation levels, but not a passer.
--Good pull-up jumper. Just an average spot-up three point shooter at this stage, and poor free throw percentages and fewer attempts might mean his long range shot is just OK at best.
--Very good build for a NBA small forward. Good defender. Good rebounder. Decent defensive playmaker. Never fouls. Overall, Wiggins has no severe limitations, although the lack of passing and possible range efficacy are definite upside concerns, but he could be a jack of all trades, master of none type, as his defense looks the strongest above anything.

8) Noah Vonleh
--Undersized center who is an absolutely scoring machine off isolation and improvisation (only 43.8% of his shots are assisted). Plays primarily at the rim and is an awful finisher for his size, but excellent offensive rebounder for size and is has a stratospheric foul drawing rate. Turnover prone.   Doesn't pass. A bundle of activity at the rim with great athletic traits magnified by usage, but unrefined with awful finishing and turnovers.
--Rarely takes jumpers or displays any sort of range, but there is hope given  a large sample size of OK free throw percentages, and is shooting 50% on mid-range J's on minimal attempts.
--Just an awful body frame that is two positions down from what is height would suggest. Simply not a forward between the lack of handles and range. Still, an absolute defensive machismo which would have ranked first last year at his current rate. Elite defensive rebounder even with lack of size that would compete with the top of the top of NCAA players. Good defensive playmaker, but better stealer than he is shotblocker. Could stand to control fouls. Overall, an undersized center who is unrefined offensively inside and lacks range currently outside but an incredible hustle player and draws a ton of fouls, and defends extremely hard and clears the defensive boards. A bit Charles Barkley-esque in getup.

9) RJ Hunter
--High usage scorer of a shooting guard who accrues his points in spot-up fashion. Completely limits turnovers with spot-up style, but not a passer whatsoever.
--Takes over half of his shots as threes, with good but not elite percentages (38%), but is better with set-up shots, and corroborated by good free throw numbers. Rarely penetrates, but has good finishing numbers off inclined set-ups in rare attempts. Decent foul drawer given rare at-rim frequency. Infrequent mid-range game, but again, decent percentages off a mixture of spot-ups and isos here.
--Very good build for a NBA SG. Excellent defensive playmaker who is an absolute ball-thief, but also a top notch shotblocker by size. Pretty good defensive rebounder, but just a decent overall rebounder. His ability to accrue defensive stats on all areas belies what is just OK defense, so more sizzle than steak. But has all the ingredients to be a major defensive player in the NBA, and combined with his three point shooting, he might be a reasonable facsimile of Danny Green.

10) Damien Inglis
--Small forward with poor scoring ability, and an absolute turnover waiting to happen. Has very good passing ability by position, though, but will force passes. Doesn't contest for offensive boards.
--Lacks a robust offensive style, but extremely efficient, shooting two-pointers very well by position, and also having some level of shooting ability (40% from three in a fair number of attempts, plus 73.1% foul shooting).
--Good build for a NBA SF. Top notch rebounder for size and by position, with excellent ability to clear the defensive boards. Just an OK defensive playmaker. In due time, can be a point forward of sorts with an ability to rebound and score from both inside and out, so there is potential, and his issues are correctable.

11) Frank Kaminsky
--Spot-up inclined center with decent scoring chops. With spot-up style, does an excellent job of limiting turnovers, but also a very good passer for size. As usage rate has increased, has reduced number of spot-up attempts. with a steadily increasing usage rate.
--Very good finisher for size off inclined set-ups and OK offensive rebounding, but struggles to draw fouls given frequency. Before this season, had a very poor track record of bricking his many three point spot-ups, but to corroborate it, has also had poor mid-range percentages and just a OK free throw percentage aggregate. Has cut down his number of threes and hit mid-range-inclined spot-ups with decent frequency this season, with a decent enough spot-up three, but the aggregate percentages are still underwater here. Might be very poor as a general shooter.
--Excellent size for a NBA center, Good defender. Good defensive playmaker who is decent at blocking shots, but also nimble enough to rake in steals for size. But just an awful rebounder for size, putting up very poor defensive rebound rates (with near bottom even for NCAA levels in his first two seasons). Might have to learn to control fouls. Overall, is physically overmatched with lack of foul drawing and rebounding, but is athletic enough to defend and make plays while passing the ball well for size. The backbreaker might be the lack of shooting ability, which combined with his physical issues make him a non-starter.

12) Gary Harris
--Shooting guard with a good spot-up scoring game. Limits turnovers given style of game, and has improved his passing to OK levels.
--Poor finisher at the rim off preferred passes, but on top of that doesn't draw fouls given at-rim frequency. Has made a switch to more threes compared to last year, but shooting on that front has regressed. Still overall, a robust shooter (38.9% 2's, 37.7% 3's, 78.7% FTs) but these numbers suggest more good than great. Easily more of a scorer than a shooter.
--Good build for a NBA SG. Fairly good defender with good ability to get steals just decent defensive playmaking ability. Awful rebounding ability. Might be relegated to being a jumpshooting scorer in the NBA with defensive chops, but the inability to rebound, pass that well or finish at the rim hinders his potential significantly.

13) Nik Stauskas
--Inclined spot-up, long range shooter who is an excellent at it, and can even hit them off the dribble, corroborated by very good free throw shooting. Really improved his scoring chops in his second year.
--Has more dimensions than just a long range specialist. Does a good job of drawing fouls given frequency of jumpers and considering that he rarely penetrates, with insane foul drawing rates in his sophomore year. Does finish well in rare at-rim ventures. Improved pull-up jumper. Also, can almost play point at a pinch, because he really limits turnovers. Good passer, but not a full-out playmaker.
--Atrocious defender. Absolutely nonexistent defensive playmaker. Pathetic rebounder. OK body for position. Absolutely needs to be hidden on this end. Completely lacks the athleticism on the defensive end, but has really maximized his skills on offense, with foul drawing, pull-ups, good passing and ballhandling to complement a very good long range jumper. Reeks a bit of Kyle Korver on offense, and has to make sure that covers for his lack of defense.

14) Nenad Miljenovic
--Tall point guard with extremely awful scoring rates--might really struggle to score in the NBA. Really, really looks to pass most of the time, and limits turnovers fairly well considering frequency of passing.
--Awful inside and outside (44.0% 2's, 17.8% 3's), but as a really good basic skeleton--good free throw percentages and draws a ton of fouls, even within small usage. Contests o-boards decently with size.
--Top notch build for a  NBA PG, but severely underweight. Good defensive rebounder and decent overall rebounder for size. Practically underwater in defensive playmaking. Has pure PG smarts, great size and underrated athletic traits (rebounding, drawing fouls), and some sprinkles of shooting potential, but offensive passivity and zero ability to manufacture points in non-foul settings is a major turnoff, and his defensive playmaking is a red flag.

15) Ron Baker
--Low-usage shooting guard with middling scoring ability. Very unselfish and has combo-guard levels of passing ability, while limiting turnovers. Has expanded his role into a mix of set-ups and isolations.
--In two seasons, about two-thirds of his attempts on average have come from long distance, but just a decent three point shooter, although he takes many of them off the dribble particularly this season. Has very good free throw percentages so taking more spot-ups can normalize his long range shooting. Rarely plays at-rim, but awful finisher, albeit has improved somewhat finishing off the dribble, and surprisingly excellent at drawing fouls given infrequency. No mid-range game, but percentages have been very good off pull-ups in small samples.
--Decent defender, but slightly subpar build from a NBA SG. Just an OK defensive playmaker, but surprisingly able as a shotblocker. Poor rebounder who is below average at corralling defensive caroms. Competes on this end, but doesn't really have the tools. Overall, a "theoretical" shooter with intrinsic offensive smarts, such as combo guard passing and an ability to draw fouls, and a competitive defender but lacks physical tools on both ends, which hinders the upside.

16) Kyle Anderson
--Best asset offensively is his excellent passing for his position, and really passes the rock like a point guard even under a decent usage rate. Just an OK scorer at best.
--Poor finisher especially for size, and better off set-ups on this end. Reduced at-rim attempts this season but improved foul drawing.  Significantly improved mid-range pull up from last year, but it might be just decent in the aggregate so far, corroborated by decent free throw percentage gives hope. Far improved three point shooting, but limited sample, although there is some hope of improving it given average mid-range aggregate.
--Top notch defender. Piles up many steals and blocks. Insane rebounder at the small forward position, especially at the defensive glass. Very good frame for position. Improving offense, even with finishing and long range concerns, might project him to be like an Evan Turner type, relying on defense and PG skills above other qualities.

17) Tyler Ennis
--Low usage caretaker PG. Exquisite court vision and excellent ballhandling ability who really, really limits turnovers despite a heavily isolation-based game.
--Decent scorer. Prefers to get to the basket off the dribble and draws fouls somewhat, but awful finisher. Awful pull-up jumper. Good three point shooter, even off the dribble, and might be a decent shooter given decent free throw percentages, but only that. Really should just be a three point shooter at this stage.
--Very good defender. Very good build for a NBA PG. Elite defensive playmaker who bags an absolute ton of steals. Decent rebounder for size. Never fouls. A surprisingly refined freshman prospect, with very good potential on defense but also a ton of discipline with passing and ballhandling on offense, although on offense might have to rely more on a decent three point shot, given that he lacks dynamics to run the offense for a long period and a reliable game inside the three point line. A bit of a Steve Blake/Mike Conley cross potentially on offense and defense.

18) James Young
--Incredibly inclined spot-up three point shooting SF, but might need to re-think this idea given early returns (30.8% 3's, corroborated by 66.7% from free throws). Decent scorer. Unselfish.
--Average finisher off the dribble at best for size, but draws fouls fairly well. Little mid-range game.
--Decent build for position. Very poor defender. Awful defensive playmaker. Very poor rebounder for size. Needs a ton of work on both ends of the court, as he has no niche on offense, besides being unselfish, and on defense he has zero instincts so far.

19) Clint Capela
--Decent scoring power forward who has ramped up aggressiveness this year. Not much of a passer, but not turnover prone.
--Top notch offensive rebounder. Good two point percentages, but very questionable offensive framework, not drawing fouls well but also showing extremely poor foul shooting. Strictly a catch and finish player on offense, likely.
--Good frame for an NBA PF, but really needs to put on weight. Very good shotblocker with side ability to rack up steals for size. Top notch rebounder, with good defensive rebounder. Surprisingly fairly decent at limiting fouls, given defensive playmaking. Has all the rebounding, frame, defensive playmaking, and foul limiting ingredients to make a mark defensively, but offensively likely limited to just finishing at the rim.

20) Julius Randle
--Very high usage scoring machine of a power forward with incredible isolation ability (only 32.18% of shots assisted). Preferred perch is at-rim where he is a very good finisher mostly off improvisation and elite offensive rebounding. Moreover, absolutely insane knack for drawing fouls given usage. An absolute force to be reckoned with in the paint. Very turnover prone, and that is the best way to stop him around the basket.
--Also takes over a third of his shots from mid-range but subpar (33.3%), although could round out to be OK given decent free throw percentages (73.3%).
--Elite, top notch defender. Absolute rebounding machine extends to elite defensive rebounding ability. Good frame for a NBA PF. Leverages fouls extremely well. Only quibble is absolutely pathetic defensive playmaking ability, and nonexistent shotblocker. Has three elite attributes--all-around at-rim game, rebounding, and defense--which may make him a very souped up, athletic version of Zach Randolph, but might lack super upside given severe lack of defensive playmaking. His other weaknesses--mid-range game and turnovers are attributes that can improve with time.

21) KJ McDaniels
--Decent scoring forward who has a decidedly isolation style of game (only 47.8% of his shots are assisted, and 37.78% the year prior) and very good ballhandling ability, but puts the blinders on and won't pass the ball.
--Very good finisher with a knack for offensive rebounding and tipping in shots very accurately, but not the best at drawing fouls given frequency of at-rim attempts. Absolutely horrid pull-up mid-range game (19%, 20%) but questionable three point accuracy (30, 34%), and both jumper forms are corroborated by subpar free throw shooting. Subpar use of the offensive floor.
--Good defender. Insane defensive playmaker with a very high rate for shotblocking for size, but also a few steals. OK rebounder at best for size. A tweener between both forward positions, and his overall ball skills suggest that he operates best as a face-up power forward, in which case he has an awful frame for his size. Even as a face-up PF, he might lack the jumpshooting ability to fulfill that role. A major athlete however who can finish and defend, and hustles in terms of defensive playmaking and offensive rebounding, which can get him a major role as a Alonzo Gee type, but might find it better to shrink his game to his strengths and be more fulfilling as a Jerome Williams type.

22) Spencer Dinwiddie
--Excellent offensive shooting guard with good isolation skills (34.83% shots assisted) who possesses an incredible ability to utilize the entire floor. Subpar in finishing at the rim off drives, but insane foul drawing ability and capitalizes with excellent free throw shooting. Has developed a better pull-up jumper this season. --Decent three point shooter, but clearly more effective with spot-up threes which he took way more of last year. Has a combination of a good scoring and shooting for the NBA, but the happy medium is probably creating while inside the three point line and spotting up outside of it.  Excellent ballhandler, but not really a creator for teammates despite the usage.
--Average defender at best. Underwhelming at making defensive plays. Pathetic rebounder for his size. Excellent frame for his position, looks the part of the NBA SG. Seems to play at his own speed and between the inability to finish and the defense, might lack the athleticism to be fully effective in the NBA, but he can work around that. Reminds somewhat of Jamal Crawford.

23) Mario Hezonja
--Just an OK scoring shooting guard. Decent passer who limits turnovers.
--Inclined three point shooter with a potentially lethal shot (aggregate around 38%, with 87.5% free throw percentage).  Also a decent two-point shooter (52.2%). Doesn't really draw fouls well or contest for offensive boards.
--Very good build for a NBA SG. Good rebounder with a very good defensive rebound rate by position. Awful defensive playmaker. Efficient inside-outside offensive player who limits mistakes and rebounds well to be a multifaceted cog, but might lack a certain athleticism (foul drawing, defensive playmaking) to take it up a notch.

24) Dante Exum
--Shooting guard who showcased excellent scoring chops at both the U-17 and U-19 World Championships. Good ballhandler even for shooting guard standards, but completely overrated as a point guard--just an average passer, at best, even for those standards.
--Excellent ability to draw fouls with very good two-point percentages for a shooting guard (54.3%). An absolute non-shooter though, but that does not stop him from taking threes, which he hits as an abysmal rate (25%), corroborated by very poor foul shooting (63.4%).
--Excellent build, even for a NBA SG, even if slight of frame. Very good rebounder for size. Just a decent defensive playmaker, but not much of a shotblocker. Controls fouls quite well. Overall, an good ballhandling scorer with a major ability to draw fouls, a good build and good rebounding ability, but does not have a point guard mentality at all and really struggles to shoot from anywhere.

25) Jarnell Stokes
--Decent scoring center who loves to score off his own devices, with insane offensive rebounding rates, but is turnover prone in doing so. Just a decent finisher for his size. Subpar use of the entire offensive floor but does draw fouls.
--Might lack range (26, 34% mid-range J's) but takes about a third of his shots as off-the-dribble jumpers, which is further corroborated by very poor free throw shooting. Center-like handles.
--Excellent defender. Excellent rebounder. Very good defensive playmaker who accrues a combination of steals and blocks. Might be a tweener, with a subpar frame if he is a NBA center. Appears to be very athletic in doing glue-guy type attributes without the ball in his hands, but might lack a consistent means of scoring, although he can rely on his work on the defensive end.

26) Sam Dekker
--Spot-up scorer who is an inclined three point shooter, but makes very good use of the entire floor, in the sense he doesn't take mid-range jumpers. Good base for jumpshooting (38% 2's, 38% 3's) but a subpar free throw shooter, so a bit of a grain of salt.
--For an alleged shooter, frequently gets to the rim and is an excellent finisher (71%) off passes. Limits turnovers, not surprising given his spot up style of game.
--Very good defender with a good frame for the NBA. Nondescript defensive playmaker. Good rebounder for his size. Reminds of a young Mike Miller.

27) Kristaps Porzingis
--Decent scoring center, but virtually never passes the ball. Poor offensive framework.
--Poor 2-point shooter for a big (50%) who doesn't draw fouls, but decent offensive rebounder. Takes a few three pointers with OK percentages for size, but awful foul shooter might make it unsustainable.
--Good build for a NBA center, but really needs to add weight. Top notch defensive playmaker with an elite ability to accrue steals by position, but also a good shotblocker. Needs to control fouls, wouldn't last half of an NBA game. Awful rebounder with an absolutely pathetic defensive rebound rate. Lack of weight, rebounding and major foul proneness undercut deflection potential, and all aspects of his offense are weak. Only a deflecting big, but young enough to improve from here.

28) P.J. Hairston
--Aggressively scoring spot up long range shooter who might be more streaky than good (27% 3's last year compared to 40% this year), but does hit free throws well. Over three-fifths of his shots come from distance, but draws fouls well given the high frequency of jumpers.
--No mid-range game. Mediocre finisher at the rim. Not a passer, but minimizes turnovers, not surprising given his shooter rep.
--Decent defender with decent rebounding ability, but not much of a defensive playmaker. Good frame for a shooting guard. Has a basic framework of a 3's/D rep, but might lack elite attributes in both of them to really find a footing in that area.

29) Jake Layman
--Low-usage spot-up three point shooter who plays a complete spot-up game. Limits turnovers far better in this style, but has reduced passing to just OK levels.
--With shooting, at this point really looks to have an identity crisis, between the aggregate spot-up three (33%) and free throw (70%) percentages, although his three point shot has really improved. Does eschew mid-range jumpers for at-rim shots. Just a decent finisher off a mixture of off dribble and setup shots, but really struggles to draw fouls. Might lack a real niche in general offense.
--Decent defender. Good rebounder for his size. Excellent frame, looks and plays the part of the NBA SF. Makes a few defensive plays, with surprisingly decent shotblocking numbers. Just appears to lack a go-to aspect on either end of the court, and his defense might be his best attribute at this stage.

30) Khem Birch
--Low usage, undersized center with a subpar scoring rate who prefers a spot-up inclined style. Absolute zero passing ability and has the general ball skills of a center.
--Offense regressed this season. Both mid-ranger and at-rim finishing plummeted this season. Might have little to no jumper to speak of, with poor free throw percentages and an awful (30%) spot-up inclined aggregate. Just a decent finisher in the aggregate, but poor for his size this year, and seems to finish better off improvisation, via top notch offensive rebounding ability. Does draw fouls fairly well given frequency.
--Money is made with defense. Top ten defender in college, but subpar build for an NBA center who needs to add weight. Absolute monster defensive playmaker, near the top ten in NCAAs in blocking shots. Very good rebounder who is also a pretty good defensive rebounder, but contests offensive boards better. Limits fouls well given defensive playmaking. Has all the principles of defense down--the actual defense, shotblocking, and the ability to limit fouls, but undersized build and lack of general inside-outside offense and ball skills hurt significantly. A one-way player, but that one-way is top notch.


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