Saturday, February 9, 2013

2013 BIG BOARD, ANALYSIS

1Marcus Smart 13.68608H: 6' 4"W: 200 lbsSGOklahoma StFr

Smart's a baller and a legit choice for the #1 pick: defensively, he's an excellent rebounder and wreaks havoc with steals and blocks despite only standing 6'4". He also sports a very nonelusive offensive game--he operates more as a slasher but is also quite willing to spread the floor. His long range shot is questionable, but based on his pretty good free throw percentage it should improve for sure. Smart's not quite a PG (he's more of a SG), but he passes quite better than most NBA SGs and should be able to play the point in a pinch. The whole profile makes it look like he's Dwyane Wade 2.0 here.

2Nerlens Noel12.40578H: 6' 11"W: 216 lbsCKentuckyFr


Noel is an absolute sick defensive playmaker, able to lay low for tons of steals for a big man while also being an excellent shotblocker--it's to the point where anything short of excellent defense in the NBA is a disappointment. That's how good he has been in college. He doesn't just go for every lofted shot, he also is a very good rebounder. On the other end is where people grow skeptical--his best attribute is that he passes the ball like NBA power forwards, but his offense is nonelusive and his jumper is pretty much broke at this stage. He might be a very poor offensive player and a sick defensive player in the league.

3Jordan Adams12.275H: 6' 5"W: 220 lbsSGUCLAFr

Adams has an very nonelusive offensive game, slashing to the hole and spreading the floor from deep relatively equally. His long ball is questionable at this point in time, but he has very good touch from the stripe so that should improve with time. Adams also holds his own as a shooting guard passer--he isn't a master creator, but he fits snugly into the 2-guard spot for the league. He's not much of a rebounder, but he's surprisingly adept at making defensive plays for his position. As a versatile scorer with handles and side defensive playmaking there's a lot of chatter of James Harden without the passing, and that could be true.

4Michael Carter-Williams11.9713H: 6' 5"W: 167 lbsPGSyracuseSo


With Carter-Williams, versatility's the name of the game. Carter-Williams stands 6'5" but is an excellent passer, even for PG standards; he should be able to get at least 7 assists a game effortlessly at the NBA level. He also has a somewhat nonelusive offensive game that features slashing with a willingness to spread the floor, but he doesn't appear to be much of a shooter: he's a pretty poor long range shooter, and the free throw percentage doesn't give much hope. At the other end, Carter-Williams is an excellent defensive playmaker, really showing a real knack for steals, and also is a very good rebounder for his size. He might showcase the ability to get triple doubles at the next level. Carter-Williams is the ultimate stuffer--a tall PG who racks up assists effortlessly, is a good rebounder and stealer, and has a reasonable offensive framework, but needs to improve the jumper.

5Ben McLemore11.7965H: 6' 4"W: 181 lbsSGKansasFr


Despite people touting his offensive prowess, I don't think McLemore is all that interesting offensively: yes, he's a great shooter--both from deep and from the stripe--and while his offensive game is somewhat nonelusive featuring some slashing and three bombing, it's not very nonelusive. This matters because McLemore, while he passes the ball like NBA SGs, isn't an excellent passer by any sense of imagination, so at 6'4" he doesn't see too many advantages at his position. So it might just as a robust shooter and occasional slasher in the league, and that's about it--those shorter Jason Richardson comparisons might be money. Like JRich, McLemore is a very good rebounder for his size but just a decent defensive playmaker. The expectation is that he's a 6'4" robust shooter-scorer with rebounding, but there's no real star upside here.

6Kentavious Caldwell-Pope11.68611H: 6' 5"W: 205 lbsSGGeorgiaSo


Caldwell-Pope is a somewhat of a mixed bag as a player, but intriguing nonetheless. For example, offensively, he's very nonelusive, although extremely long range heavy, but for an inclined jumpshooter he draws fouls somewhat decently. He has multiple problems though: it's questionable whether he can buy into his shooting. He's not that good from the stripe, and the overall three point shooting appears to be just average, so there's a chance he can be a low percentage jumper chucker in the league. Adding to that "chucking" idea is the fact that he passes more like small forwards than than he does a shooting guard, so he's not exactly a great player to play alongside for teammates. Defensively, there's potential: Caldwell-Pope rebounds really well for his size, and wreaks defensive havoc with his quick hands for steals. Defensively is where he could make his mark: offensively he's just a streaky gunner with tunnel vision, but we can see where some of the Kerry Kittles comparisons come from. On the offense alone, he's not All-Star material.

7Cody Zeller11.67729H: 6' 11"W: 240 lbsCIndianaSo


Offensively, Zeller draws fouls well and has pretty good touch on his jumper, but his passing is nondescript. He makes quite a few defensive plays and will alternate between the occasional block and laying low for steals, but he isn't a conventionally great shotblocker that we've come to expect from near 7-footers. He's also just a decent rebounder at best, considering his size. We've seen his type before--good inside-outside offensive big man who plays hard to make defensive plays, but is lacking in the hard big man core abilities of shotblocking and rebounding. Some of those types have combined that with passing (Brad Miller), but Zeller doesn't have that. In that sense, the upper end of his upside is poor, but his ability to make a few defensive plays and draw fouls means he's not a conventional stiff. Maybe a rich man's Jason Smith?

8Anthony Bennett11.48568H: 6' 7"W: 240 lbsPFUNLVSo


With Bennett, there's a feeling that there's less that meets the eye: he's a face up power forward with a nonelusive offensive game--he mostly draws fouls, but occasionally he'll spot up from distance. He's an average shooter from deep and an OK shooter from the stripe, so it's questionable whether this is a great proposition for him. He's not much of a passer at all, so for a 6'7" power forward he's definitely physically at a disadvantage for the NBA. Bennett's major calling card might be his rebounding ability, which at 6'7" is excellent, although he's not much of a defensive playmaker. Largely, he's a 6'7" power forward with only real great trick--rebounding--as his inside-outside game is very rough around the edges and he brings little in other team nuances like passing and defensive playmaking. Might be a project, and a possible bust.

9Otto Porter11.47101H: 6' 8"W: 205 lbsSFGeorgetownSo


Porter's best asset, kind of like Carter-Williams, is his versatility; Porter's ballhandling and passing skills are almost to the level of NBA PGs, so at 6'8" he's perceived as a matchup nightmare from the small forward position. Elsewhere, his offense is a wreck--very nonelusive and mid-range heavy, and his jumper appears to be just OK at best so his long range success this year might be a fluke; anyway. Defensively, Porter might be a stopper material; he makes a ton of defensive plays, racking up a ton of steals and even blocks, and he's an excellent rebounder for his size. He doesn't have the best offense, but at 6'8" his ability to make plays without  touching the ball--passing and defense--is incredibly useful in today's league, and he plays the part of a matchup nightmare. Not a star, but an incredibly useful cog player.

10Kyle Anderson11.38612H: 6' 8"W: 233 lbsSFUCLAFr


Defensively, Anderson can be stopper material. He has an amazingly elite rebound rate that would even make even the best college centers swoon, and he's also a very good defensive playmaker who can lay low for tons of steals and get a few blocks. That versatility also extends over to offense--Anderson passes and handles the ball almost like NBA PGs, and so at small forward, standing 6'8", he's considered a matchup nightmare. The rest of his offense is poor--he's somewhat mid-range heavy, has an OK jumper at best, and really seems to lack a long range shot. But his versatility is similar to Otto Porter's on both the passing, rebounding, and defensive playmaking, and that has its uses as a really good NBA cog player.


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