DRAFT DAY GRADES

*Based on my mock draft ranker.

ATLANTA HAWKS

Round 1: Lucas Nogueira (16), Dennis Schroeder (17)

Round 2: Mike Muscala (44), Raul Neto (47)

Noguiera ranked 21st in my algorithm so he's a solid buy with that pick. Schroeder, however, was considered undrafted in my algorithm (78th). It's harder to tell with players who don't play high level German competition, but his statistics this past season with the Phantoms didn't show many NBA-translatable skills at all. At 44th Mike Muscala was a massive steal, he ranked 23rd in my algorithm. Raul Neto doesn't make NBA viable at all (89th). So overall, a good pick (Noguiera), a bad pick (Schroeder) and a steal (Muscala).


BOSTON CELTICS 

Round 1: Kelly Olynyk (13)

Round 2: Colton Iverson (53)

Olynyk screams mediocrity and ranked 28th in my algorithm, and was a massive reach at 13. Colton Iverson  ranked 82nd in my algorithm. This was a horrid draft for Boston.


BROOKLYN NETS 

Round 1: Mason Plumlee (22)

Round 2: None

Plumlee gave the illusion that he dropped to 22nd, but face it, there's a good reason he dropped: he's not that good at all. He ranked 45th in my algorithm, one of the worst ranks of supposed lottery picks, so even at #22 he might be a reach. He's not even the best Duke prospect for the NBA. Bad draft for Brooklyn.


CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 

Round 1: Cody Zeller (4)

Round 2: None

Zeller was a good pick, also ranking 4th in my algorithm, but when a team drafts in the lottery, especially this high, you have to look at what prospects were missed. Nerlens Noel was the biggest miss, obviously, but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was also underrated as well. So this was merely an OK pick as a result.

CHICAGO BULLS 

Round 1: Tony Snell (20)

Round 2: Erik Murphy (49)

This was an awful draft for Chicago. Snell ranked 46th and was clearly a major reach at #20, and Erik Murphy ranked 75th and was drafted at 49th.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 

Round 1: Anthony Bennett (1), Sergey Karasev (19)

Round 2: Carrick Felix (33)

Ah, the draft everyone is talking about. My beef with Bennett is that I'm not even sure if he has the skills of a power forward--his passing/ballhandling was on par with centers with UNLV--and that really made him take a nosedive into the 25th best prospect. While I like Karasev in general, I also thought he was a reach and was the 35th best player, due to what I think are some severe athletic limitations. Felix was a complete overdraft at 33rd when he was the 88th best prospect--even to most draftniks, he wasn't projected to be drafted. This was a bad draft for the Cavs.

DALLAS MAVERICKS 

Round 1: Shane Larkin (18)

Round 2: Ricky Ledo (43)

Larkin was an overdraft at #18--he ranked 36th in my algorithm, and I can't see him as a starter in this league. Ledo is this year's mystery meat--no real stats to work off of, but good frame, and supposedly good scoring/ballhandling combination in the vein of JR Smith. I think he could be a steal, but Larkin was a bad pick.

DENVER NUGGETS 

Round 1: None

Round 2: Erick Green (46), Joffrey Lauvergne (55)

Green was the 49th best pick in my algorithm, so the Nuggets got level value with him. Lauvergne won't see the light of the day in the league as the 99th best player in my algorithm, but for a late 2nd rounder, that won't matter. OK draft day by the Nuggets.

DETROIT PISTONS 

Round 1: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8)

Round 2: Tony Mitchell (37), Peyton Siva (56)

The Pistons got a massive steal with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who ranked 2nd in my algorithm. Mitchell was framed as a steal by draftniks as he was considered a late 1st round pick for the longest time, and my algorithm, which typically loves athletic jumping jacks who pump the sort of athletic stats that Mitchell does, just couldn't overlook the combination of his massive regression combined with his lack of ballhandling/shooting giving him massive tweener status, and had him ranked 69th. Peyton Siva was ranked 74th but it doesn't matter that late in the draft.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Round 1: Nemanja Nedovic (30)

Round 2: None

I know to a lot of scouts, Nedovic looks like the second coming of Goran Dragic, with slippery shifty good athleticism and good size. But Nedovic has been around the block and has accrued a lot of unimpressive high level European stats, and is a shooting guard by nature. Nedovic was ranked 86th in my algorithm and was drafted 30th in a massive reach. Bad draft by Golden State.


HOUSTON ROCKETS

Round 1: None

Round 2: Isaiah Canaan (34)

Canaan was a bit of a reach who ranked 51st in my algorithm, and could be overrated. Poor draft.

INDIANA PACERS

Round 1: Solomon Hill (23)

Round 2: None

Indiana had an incredibly poor draft, and was one of the few teams to draft a undrafted player in my algorithm in the first round. That was Solomon Hill, ranked 65th in my algorithm and widely perceived to be overdrafted by every draftnik, so this was an awful draft. This follows another obvious overdraft of Miles Plumlee, so if not for the second round steal of Orlando Johnson last year Larry Bird would really have been perceived as a bad drafter, even despite having had drafts/draft day trades of Paul George, Lance Stephenson, Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert. But awful draft this go around.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 

Round 1: Reggie Bullock (25)

Round 2: None

Bullock was probably within the range of my algorithm for being drafted (33rd), but typically within that algorithm range you're probably expecting a role player. That's what the Clippers are getting here. OK drafting here.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS 

Round 1: None

Round 2: Ryan Kelly (48)

Finally! The Lakers were one of the very few teams to get a  massive draft day steal, and Kelly was one at 9th in my algorithm. This was an incredible value pick. Excellent drafting.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Round 1: None

Round 2: Jamaal Franklin (41), Janis Timma (60)

Franklin was perceived as the steal of the draft, having been perceived as a 20s pick, but I was never high on him in the first place, mostly because, between his lack of a jumper and lack of handles/passing, I saw him as a 6'5" PF. Still, everything else seems very good with him, but in the aggregate he ranked 47th--within range of this being a solid pick based on value. Janis Timma was not in my algorithm and at 60th, no one cares. Ok draft for Memphis.

MIAMI HEAT 

Round 1: None

Round 2: James Ennis (50)

Ennis is one of the other major steals of the draft, ranking has a late lottery pick (14th) in my algorithm. The Heat got a massive steal by trading for him, and the rich get richer. He can be another early Dorell Wright clone for them, before he wasted his athleticism by threes-binging.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS 

Round 1: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)

Round 2: Nate Wolters (38)

Adetokoubo was drafted right where he should be (had him 16th in my algorithm) and Wolters was another major steal, as he ranked 12th in my algorithm and might even have some starter potential in the league, I bet. Excellent draft by Milwaukee.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Round 1: Shabazz Muhammad (14), Gorgui Dieng (21),

Round 2: Lorenzo Brown (52), Bojan Dubljevic (59)

That was an awful draft in general by Minnesota. Shabazz is the worst lottery-perceived talent in my algorithm, even ranking as undrafted (77th) there largely because his passing/ballhandling are in line with PFs. He's so eerily reminiscent to a Nick Young/DeMar DeRozan clone, in a bad way, and they picked him in 14th. He fell because his game just doesn't jibe well for the league. Gorgui Dieng has so many issues--Louisville is awful at producing first round talent, he's super old and can't score at all--and ranked 38th in my algorithm. This was another clear overdraft. Lorenzo Brown (50th) got drafted right where he should have been, as was Bojan Dubljevic (54th), but no one will expect much out of those at all. Awful draft.

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 

Round 1: None

Round 2: Pierre Jackson (42)

The move everyone is clamoring about is how they traded Nerlens Noel and another high lottery pick for the rights to Jrue Holiday. Personally I think Holiday is incredibly underrated, particularly on defense, and that's a valuable trait to have from a player so young and a top option. On offense, while he still insists on too many mid-range shots and appears turnover prone, there's still very good value here. The problem is when you get to the financial implications of this, as top five draft picks under the rookie scale contract for five years can easily produce more bang for the buck than someone like Holiday could under a larger, fatter contract. So while I like Holiday, this could be a bit of a wash. Pierre Jackson ranked 37th in my algorithm, and with the slew of Isaiah Thomas, Nate Robinsons in the league, might have slight value. OK draft for the Pelicans.

NEW YORK KNICKS

Round 1: Tim Hardaway Jr. (24)

Round 2: None

Hardaway Jr. is overrated as a first round draft pick, and scouts have already criticized his inability to put together a consistent offensive repertoire, as he'd oscillate between shooting well and poorly in spot-ups and off-the-dribble shots. He ranked 42nd in my algorithm so this was a reach. Poor draft.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Round 1: Steven Adams (12), Andre Roberson (26)

Round 2: Alex Abrines (32), Grant Jerrett (40)

Mixed draft here. Adams was a reach (25th), as was Andre Roberson (41st)--Roberson in particular has drawn a ton of comparisons to a Matt Barnes type, but he lacks the passing ability, and many had projected him to be undrafted, even. Alex Abrines rated as a late second rounder (56th), so that's three reaches right there. The real steal of these picks might be Grant Jerrett at #40--he ranked 7th in my algorithm, and I think there's massive potential out of him, as perhaps a better Channing Frye type. So this was a reasonable draft overall for the Thunder.


ORLANDO MAGIC 

Round 1: Victor Oladipo (2)

Round 2: Romero Osby (51)

Oladipo was a reach at 2nd, as he ranked 18th in my algorithm, largely because he spent three years in college already. Osby wasn't even in my 100 prospects, so I don't expect much from him. Bad draft by Orlando.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 

Round 1: Nerlens Noel (6), Michael Carter-Williams (11)

Round 2: Arsalan Kazemi (54)

Philadelphia had the best draft of any team. Every single one of their picks was a value pick. Nerlens was the best value pick--#1 in my algorithm. While he doesn't compare to Anthony Davis or Kyrie Irving, he's still very good, and Kentucky has a good track record of producing NBA prospects. Michael Carter-Williams ranked 8th in my algorithm and was drafted 11th, but of course there's that Syracuse fudge factor, which is one of the worst among schools churning many 1st round draft prospects. But still, this could be a value pick here. Kazemi

TEAM DRAFT DAY RATERS

Below the jump, we'll analyze the teams that operate best at draft day--teams that know how to draft players, AND teams that know how to execute draft day trades that work to their advantage. This is based on a win-shares argument, the amount of win shares a player accumulates weighted by the number of games they play. So there's a longevity factor, a winning factor (accounted for by win shares), and the extrapolation is that the defense would come from this winning factor. And of course, win shares is built upon the PER, or primarily, offense argument. So this is a reasonable encapsulation of a player's built-in value over the course of their career. Many thanks to basketballreference for such data.