Now that we know the Lakers have the 7th overall pick for sure, there's been a flurry of discontent in Laker Nation. Pretty much anything that was not a top three pick was met with comments such as "waste of a tank" and whatnot. Yeah, high expectations and all that.
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Monday, May 19, 2014
NBA MOCK 7.0: WITH HISTORICAL PRECEDENCE
In previous mocks, say, 5.0 and before, we used predictive markers (steals, rebounds, two-point percentage, mutual exclusion properties, among many others) to paint the canvas and equate a player with a specific number. These predictive markers, drawn from established approaches, often can tell whether a player has the goods to translate their work to the NBA level. And, for the most part, it works. But there is something invisible--like the dark matter of the universe--that can't be seen through general stats. Namely, this affects athletic point guards and athletic centers, usually in a the proper range (say, 6'10" to 7'1"). So I've incorporated conditions where incorporating numbers where PGs or Cs have to meet a certain barometer in order to get the raise that's needed for the NBA. As you'll see, there are names in the third chart below where there is very little chance, statistically, you can construe, say, a Taj Gibson, a Russell Westbrook, a Lance Stephenson, a Taj Gibson, a DeAndre Jordan, an Andre Drummond or a Chandler Parsons as first round picks. It's just incredibly hard to find that medium. I've created enough conditions in my algorithm where all of them land as first round picks, although many of them become centralized in the mid-first round (or for Stephenson's and Westbrook's case, a very early 2nd rounder).
Thursday, May 15, 2014
NBA MOCK DRAFT 6.0: NOW, WITH DUNKS
Okay, I'm going to freely admit that this next draft is going to be a little bit polarizing. But it gets the consensus about the players as far as scouting is concerned. I've found there to be a very tight correlation between the number of dunks a player gets and their overall draft rank (of course, provided the player is competent to be in the top 100 of most mocks).
Saturday, May 3, 2014
NBA MOCK 5.0: OH, THE PAYNE
Yep. Found the combination that really helps Adreian Payne. Without further ado:
Monday, April 28, 2014
NBA MOCK DRAFT 4.0 (UPDATED: MORE NAMES ADDED)
Yep. Another update. Hopefully it's the last one (likely is in terms of algorithm changes). I feel very comfortable that I've addressed many of the key issues with NBA-translatable skills.
Sunday, April 27, 2014
NBA MOCK DRAFT 3.0, AND AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 2015 DRAFT
Yeah, I know it's just a one-day turnaround from the previous post. But I got some twitter advice from well-informed stat geeks, and I've decided to add a potential rating to my previous algorithm--while my previous algorithm already emphasized this to some degree, this magnifies categories such as 2-point percentage, steals, blocks, rebounds, assist rate and age. This gets a more accurate reflection of where the prospects seemingly stand now; previously my algorithm hated guys like Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, and a few others. Without further ado:
Saturday, April 26, 2014
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
USING STANDARDIZED REAL PLUS MINUS (RPM) TO ANALYZE TWO-WAY AND ONE-WAY PLAYERS
So we've used Stephen Ilardi's published RPM stats on ESPN, adjusted by position (to create a more even distribution among ranks) to get a consolidate ranking of top offensive and defensive players. These players may not have the stats, but when they step on the court, they spatially warp the floor in ways that prove beneficial to their team. The top players are in the top 100 for offense, defense, or both categories (in the case of two way). It is out of 430 total NBA players. Years remaining includes this year as well.
Without further ado...
Friday, March 28, 2014
Monday, January 27, 2014
INTERNATIONAL BASKETBALL TEAM RANKINGS
United States is obviously #1, but what other countries are representing:
Listed after Player Name: (Height Weight Position--Age)
2) SPAIN
Ricky Rubio (6'4" 185 PG--23)
Jose Calderon (6'3" 211 PG--32)
Sergio Rodriguez (6'3" 176 PG--27)
Rudy Fernandez (6'6" 185 SG--28)
Juan Carlos Navarro (6'4" 200 SG--33)
Alejandro Abrines (6'6" 200 SG/SF--21)
Daniel Diez (6'8" 216 SF--21)
Serge Ibaka (6'10" 245 PF/C--24)
Nikola Mirotic* (6'10" 236 PF--22)
Victor Claver (6'9" 224 PF--25)
Marc Gasol (7'1" 265 C--28)
Pau Gasol (7'0" 250 C--33)
This is a well constructed team with key youth (Rubio, Ibaka) and many veterans (Gasol brothers, Calderon, Navarro) with a lot of playmaking and shooting on the side. Look for next generation Nikola Mirotic, who has an asterisk because he might play for either Montengro or Spain. There are a few incubator prospects with Abrines and and Diez who may get some run in some of the blowouts.
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3) FRANCE
Tony Parker (6'2" 185 PG--31)
Nando De Colo (6'5" 200 PG/SG--26)
Evan Fournier (6'6" 200 SG--21)
Mickael Pietrus (6'6" 215 SG--31)
Nicolas Batum (6'8" 200 SF--25)
Livio Jean Charles (6'9" 217 SF--21)
Boris Diaw (6'8" 250 PF--31)
Kevin Seraphin (6'10" 278 PF--24)
Ronny Turiaf (6'10" 241 PF/C--31)
Joakim Noah (6'11" 232 C--28)
Ian Mahinmi (6'11" 230 C--27)
Alexis Ajinca (7'2" 248 C--25)
France has always fielded deep teams in the past, and this is no exception, with a bunch of NBA talent and several clear leaders (Parker, Batum, Noah). There is a lot of depth and ballhandling here. Mix of young players and veteran leaders. They should go far. Rodrigue Beaubois, Johan Petro, and Rudy Gobert are some key omissions, as well as future NBA prospects like Leo Westermann, Boris Dallo, Mam Jaiteh, and possibly Damien Inglis.
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4) BRAZIL
Marcelo Huertas (6'3" 205 PG--30)
Scott Machado (6'1" 205 PG--23)
Raul Neto (6'1" PG--21)
Leandro Barbosa (6'3" 194 SG--31)
Alex Garcia (6'4" 225 SG--33)
Marcus Vinicius (6'10" 225 SF--29)
Nene (6'11" 250 PF/C--31)
Anderson Varejao (6'11" 267 PF--31)
Vitor Faverani (6'11" 260 PF/C--25)
Tiago Splitter (6'11" 245 C--29)
Lucas Noguiera (7'0" 220 C--21)
Fab Melo (7'0" 255 C--23)
Brazil is knee-deep in bigs, both power forwards and centers, and have three veterans (Varejao, Nene, Splitter) who are the clear leaders of the team and several incubating prospects (Machado, Neto, and especially Noguiera). Their guards are noticeably weaker but Huertas, Barbosa and Garcia have been around and Barbosa, even with several lost steps, can bring needed scoring punch. This is a deep team that should definitely be a contender. A key omission is Cristiano Felicio, a 21 year old PF prospect.
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5) CANADA
Tyler Ennis (6'2" 180 PG--19)
Cory Joseph (6'3" 185 PG--22)
Olivier Hanlan (6'4" 188 PG/SG--20)
Nik Stauskas (6'6" 205 SG--20)
Andrew Wiggins (6'8" 197 SF--18)
Tristan Thompson (6'9" 238 PF--22)
Anthony Bennett (6'8" 259 PF--20)
Andrew Nicholson (6'9" 250 PF--24)
Dwight Powell (6'10" 212 PF--22)
Kelly Olynyk (7'0" 238 C--22)
Robert Sacre (7'0" 260 C--24)
Samuel Dalembert (6'11" 250 C--32)
This is a deep team with a lot of talented youth--most of their players are in their late teens to early 20s, and the centerpiece is Andrew Wiggins. But don't underestimate Tristan Thompson, Tyler Ennis, and Kelly Olynyk. Dalembert brings the sorely needed veteran leadership, although perhaps Dwight Powell will get replaced by a proven leading guard like Andy Rautins. The assumption is that Steve Nash can't play, and Joel Anthony is omitted due to his rapidly decaying game. This team might just be too green as of yet.
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6) AUSTRALIA
Dante Exum (6'6" 188 PG/SG--18)
Patty Mills (6'0" PG--25)
Matthew Dellavedova (6'3" PG--22)
Ryan Broekhoff (6'7" SG/SF--22)
Brad Newley (6'7" SG/SF--28)
Joe Ingles (6'8" SF--25)
Ben Simmons (6'8" SF--17)
David Andersen (6'11" PF/C--33)
Nathan Jawai (6'10" PF--27)
Andrew Bogut (7'0" C--29)
Aron Baynes (6'10" C--27)
Luke Nevill (7'2" C--27)
If only they had Kyrie. Just kidding. Team Aussie has rapidly improved from even about a decade ago when they were considered laughingstocks. With the addition of lead guard Exum to combine with Bogut, that's lethal, and Patty Mills and Aron Baynes are already viable NBA players under the San Antonio system, along with seasoned NBA veteran David Andersen and another NBA type in Dellavdeova. Newley and Ingles, along with Jawai were also considered NBA prospects. This team from top to bottom is competent, but we'll see if they can be a major sleeper.
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7) RUSSIA
Alexey Shved (6'6" 187 PG/SG--25)
Anton Ponkrashov (6'7" PG/SG--27)
Sergey Karasev (6'7" 196 SG--20)
Dmitry Kulagin (6'6" 196 SG--21)
Vitaly Fridzon (6'5" SG--27)
Andrei Kirilenko (6'9" 235 SF/PF--32)
Sergei Monia (6'8" 218 SF--30)
Yaroslav Korolev (6'10" 245 PF--26)
Viktor Khryapa (6'9" 235 PF--31)
Timofey Mozgov (7'1" 250 C--27)
Sasha Kaun (6'11" 256 C--28)
Artem Klimenko (7'1" 228 C--20)
Russia is a team that is ran by a bunch of length--Kirilenko, an NBA mainstay, is the clear leader in this, but NBA busts like Yaroslava Korolev, Viktor Khryapa and Sergei Monia all have ample length and defensive reputations as well. Timofey Mozgov, Kirilenko and Shved are the clear leaders of this team. The team is ran by two tall PGs in Shved and Ponkrashov, and there's enough talent to be a major sleeper here.
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8) LITHUANIA
Mantas Kalnietis (6'5" 205 PG--27)
Tomas Dimsa (6'4" 185 SG--20)
Reinaldas Seibutis (6'6" SG--28)
Martynas Pocius (6'5" SG--27)
Linas Kleiza (6'8" 234 SF--29)
Marius Grigonis (6'6" 195 SF--19)
Donatas Motiejunas (7'0" 222 PF--23)
Kristof Lavrinovic (6'11" PF--33)
Jonas Valanciunas (7'0" 240 C--21)
Darjus Lavrinovic (6'11" C--33)
Robertas Javtokas (6'11" C--33)
Martynas Andriuskevicius (7'2" 240--27)
Without Jasikevicius and Songaila, both of whom are likely too old to compete here, there's a certain lack of leadership lost, especially since their very old players have zero NBA experience. Still, they have very viable young NBA players, like Motiejunas and Valanciunas, and older leadership and NBA viability in Kleiza, so this is a decent team. Kalnietis is an underrated PG who has never made it to the NBA, and they have special incubator players coming up in Dimsa and Grigonis. They have some draft washouts like Seibutis and Andriuskevicius, as well. It's a bit lacking in point guards, but there's enough talent here.
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9) GREECE
Vassilis Spanoulis (6'4" PG--31)
Dimitirs Diamantidis* (6'5" 220 PG/SG--33)
Nick Calathes (6'6" 213 PG/SG--24)
Nikolaos Zisis (6'6" 215 SG--30)
Giannis Antetokoumpo (6'10" 205 SF--19)
Kostas Papanikalaou (6'9" SF--23)
Thanassis Antetokoumpo (6'7" 200 SF--20)
Antonis Fotsis (6'10" PF--32)
Linos Chrysikopoulos (6'10" 218 PF--21)
Giorgos Printezis (6'9" PF--28)
Kosta Koufos (7'0" 265 C--24)
Ioannis Bourousis (7'0" C--29)
Greece actually has major sleeper potential. In the past, they had major players who had NBA talent (Diamantidis, Theodoros Papaloukas, Spanoulis) who never came over stateside, and had major success. Now, Paps and Diamantidis have retired, although with the resurgence of Greek talent I might assume that Diamantidis could come back, since he's still an active player but just has supposedly retired from the national team. Spanoulis and Fotsis are the heart and soul of the team, but Calathes, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Koufos bring in the young certifiable NBA talent across all positions. They also have a slew of NBA former draft prospects like Zisis, Chriskopoulis, Papanikalaou, Printezis, and Bourousis, as well as the older Antetokounmpo. This team could make noise with clear leaders and fairly good balance, both positionally and young and old.
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10) TURKEY
Dogus Balbay (6'1" 180 PG--24)
Ender Arslan (6'3" PG--30)
Kenan Sipahi (6'4" 180 PG--18)
Sinan Guler (6'4" SG--29)
Emir Preldzic (6'9" 220 SF--26)
Serhat Citin (6'6" SF--27)
Hedo Turkoglu (6'10" 220 SF--34)
Ersan Ilyasova (6'10" 235 PF--26)
Kerem Gonlum (6'10" PF--35)
Omer Asik (7'0" 255 C--27)
Enes Kanter (6'11" 248 C--21)
Semih Erden (7'0" 240 C--27)
Turkey is a very big man loaded team, with four 6'10" and above players (Turkoglu, Ilyasova, Kanter and Asik) leading the ropes. Also, really watch out for young Turkish phenom Kenan Sipahi, who can give Turkey a new generation of ballhandler. Other than that, there's really not much to be impressed, but former Texas PG Dogs Balbay is good at pressuring the ball on defense, and Emir Preldzic was a draft prospect in prior years.
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11) GERMANY
Dennis Schroeder (6'1" 168 PG--20)
Per Gunther (6'0" PG--25)
Paul Zippser (6'6" 195 SG--19)
Lucca Staiger (6'5" SG--25)
Robin Benzing (6'10" 210 SF--24)
Elias Harris (6'8" 239 SF--24)
Dirk Nowitzki (7'0" 245 PF--35)
Tim Ohlbrecht (6'11" 255 PF/C--25)
Jan Jagla (7'0" 231 PF--32)
Chris Kaman (7'0" 265 C--31)
Tibor Pleiss (7'1" 269 C--24)
Philipp Neumann (6'11" 240 C--21)
Germany has a ton of big men, including those who can shoot, but has been awful at producing any sort of guards, but especially wings. Nowitzki is the clear leader, with Kaman, Ohlbrecht and Schroeder on the sides, the latter two adding the young blood, and a few NBA draft washouts like Benzing, Harris, and Pleiss. This is an imbalanced team that will only go as far as Nowitzki takes them.
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12) SERBIA
Milos Teodosic (6'5" PG--26)
Nemanja Nedovic (6'3" 192 PG/SG--22)
Vasilje Micic (6'5" 203 PG--20)
Milenko Tepic (6'8" SG/SF--26)
Bojan Bogdanovic (6'6" 205 SG--21)
Nemanja Bjelica (6'10" SF/PF--25)
Milan Macvan (6'9" PF--23)
Zoran Erceg (6'11" PF--28)
Nenad Krstic (7'0" 267 C--30)
Miroslav Raduljica (7'0" C--25)
Nikola Milutinov (6'11" 220 C--19)
Dejan Musli (7'0" C--22)
Serbia has a very interesting team completely laden with prior NBA prospects who for whatever reason has not found success in the NBA but found success in the Euroleague, but it also has many young next generation prospects coming up like Micic, Bogdanovic, and Milutinov. There might be a lack of wing play here but there are a ton of bigs here. Teodosic, Nedovic, and Krstic are the likely leaders here, and Raduljica has done well with the Bucks. It's hard to make noise with no current NBA players playing heavy minutes, but we'll see. Too bad they can't combine with Montenegro and add Nikola Pekovic and Vucevic.
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13) ITALY
Travis Diener (6'1" PG--31)
Daniel Hackett (6'6" PG--25)
Andrea Cinciarini (6'4" PG--27)
Marco Belinelli (6'5" 195 SG--27)
Pietro Aradori (6'4" SG--24)
Alessandro Gentile (6'6" 200 SF--22)
Danilo Gallinari (6'10" 225 SF/PF--25)
Luigi Datome (6'8" 215 SF/PF--26)
Stefano Mancinelli (6'8" PF--26)
Nicolo Melli (6'9" PF--22)
Andrea Bargnani (7'0" 250 C--28)
Marco Cusin (6'11" C--26)
Not exactly a deep team, as it's led by Gallinari, Bellinelli and Bargnani at each of the SG, SF and C positions, but there is a distinct lack of a playmaking PG and proper depth as well.
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Others:
14) Montenegro has the combination of Nikola Pekovic and Nikola Vucevic, with a few NBA draft prospects like Bojan Dubljevic and Vladimir Dasic, but otherwise lack the talent, particularly in non-center positions.
15) Croatia has several NBA prospects of interest: Dario Saric and Mario Hezonja, but otherwise their best players are NBA draft washouts like Roko Ukic and Ante Tomic.
Listed after Player Name: (Height Weight Position--Age)
2) SPAIN
Ricky Rubio (6'4" 185 PG--23)
Jose Calderon (6'3" 211 PG--32)
Sergio Rodriguez (6'3" 176 PG--27)
Rudy Fernandez (6'6" 185 SG--28)
Juan Carlos Navarro (6'4" 200 SG--33)
Alejandro Abrines (6'6" 200 SG/SF--21)
Daniel Diez (6'8" 216 SF--21)
Serge Ibaka (6'10" 245 PF/C--24)
Nikola Mirotic* (6'10" 236 PF--22)
Victor Claver (6'9" 224 PF--25)
Marc Gasol (7'1" 265 C--28)
Pau Gasol (7'0" 250 C--33)
This is a well constructed team with key youth (Rubio, Ibaka) and many veterans (Gasol brothers, Calderon, Navarro) with a lot of playmaking and shooting on the side. Look for next generation Nikola Mirotic, who has an asterisk because he might play for either Montengro or Spain. There are a few incubator prospects with Abrines and and Diez who may get some run in some of the blowouts.
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3) FRANCE
Tony Parker (6'2" 185 PG--31)
Nando De Colo (6'5" 200 PG/SG--26)
Evan Fournier (6'6" 200 SG--21)
Mickael Pietrus (6'6" 215 SG--31)
Nicolas Batum (6'8" 200 SF--25)
Livio Jean Charles (6'9" 217 SF--21)
Boris Diaw (6'8" 250 PF--31)
Kevin Seraphin (6'10" 278 PF--24)
Ronny Turiaf (6'10" 241 PF/C--31)
Joakim Noah (6'11" 232 C--28)
Ian Mahinmi (6'11" 230 C--27)
Alexis Ajinca (7'2" 248 C--25)
France has always fielded deep teams in the past, and this is no exception, with a bunch of NBA talent and several clear leaders (Parker, Batum, Noah). There is a lot of depth and ballhandling here. Mix of young players and veteran leaders. They should go far. Rodrigue Beaubois, Johan Petro, and Rudy Gobert are some key omissions, as well as future NBA prospects like Leo Westermann, Boris Dallo, Mam Jaiteh, and possibly Damien Inglis.
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4) BRAZIL
Marcelo Huertas (6'3" 205 PG--30)
Scott Machado (6'1" 205 PG--23)
Raul Neto (6'1" PG--21)
Leandro Barbosa (6'3" 194 SG--31)
Alex Garcia (6'4" 225 SG--33)
Marcus Vinicius (6'10" 225 SF--29)
Nene (6'11" 250 PF/C--31)
Anderson Varejao (6'11" 267 PF--31)
Vitor Faverani (6'11" 260 PF/C--25)
Tiago Splitter (6'11" 245 C--29)
Lucas Noguiera (7'0" 220 C--21)
Fab Melo (7'0" 255 C--23)
Brazil is knee-deep in bigs, both power forwards and centers, and have three veterans (Varejao, Nene, Splitter) who are the clear leaders of the team and several incubating prospects (Machado, Neto, and especially Noguiera). Their guards are noticeably weaker but Huertas, Barbosa and Garcia have been around and Barbosa, even with several lost steps, can bring needed scoring punch. This is a deep team that should definitely be a contender. A key omission is Cristiano Felicio, a 21 year old PF prospect.
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5) CANADA
Tyler Ennis (6'2" 180 PG--19)
Cory Joseph (6'3" 185 PG--22)
Olivier Hanlan (6'4" 188 PG/SG--20)
Nik Stauskas (6'6" 205 SG--20)
Andrew Wiggins (6'8" 197 SF--18)
Tristan Thompson (6'9" 238 PF--22)
Anthony Bennett (6'8" 259 PF--20)
Andrew Nicholson (6'9" 250 PF--24)
Dwight Powell (6'10" 212 PF--22)
Kelly Olynyk (7'0" 238 C--22)
Robert Sacre (7'0" 260 C--24)
Samuel Dalembert (6'11" 250 C--32)
This is a deep team with a lot of talented youth--most of their players are in their late teens to early 20s, and the centerpiece is Andrew Wiggins. But don't underestimate Tristan Thompson, Tyler Ennis, and Kelly Olynyk. Dalembert brings the sorely needed veteran leadership, although perhaps Dwight Powell will get replaced by a proven leading guard like Andy Rautins. The assumption is that Steve Nash can't play, and Joel Anthony is omitted due to his rapidly decaying game. This team might just be too green as of yet.
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6) AUSTRALIA
Dante Exum (6'6" 188 PG/SG--18)
Patty Mills (6'0" PG--25)
Matthew Dellavedova (6'3" PG--22)
Ryan Broekhoff (6'7" SG/SF--22)
Brad Newley (6'7" SG/SF--28)
Joe Ingles (6'8" SF--25)
Ben Simmons (6'8" SF--17)
David Andersen (6'11" PF/C--33)
Nathan Jawai (6'10" PF--27)
Andrew Bogut (7'0" C--29)
Aron Baynes (6'10" C--27)
Luke Nevill (7'2" C--27)
If only they had Kyrie. Just kidding. Team Aussie has rapidly improved from even about a decade ago when they were considered laughingstocks. With the addition of lead guard Exum to combine with Bogut, that's lethal, and Patty Mills and Aron Baynes are already viable NBA players under the San Antonio system, along with seasoned NBA veteran David Andersen and another NBA type in Dellavdeova. Newley and Ingles, along with Jawai were also considered NBA prospects. This team from top to bottom is competent, but we'll see if they can be a major sleeper.
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7) RUSSIA
Alexey Shved (6'6" 187 PG/SG--25)
Anton Ponkrashov (6'7" PG/SG--27)
Sergey Karasev (6'7" 196 SG--20)
Dmitry Kulagin (6'6" 196 SG--21)
Vitaly Fridzon (6'5" SG--27)
Andrei Kirilenko (6'9" 235 SF/PF--32)
Sergei Monia (6'8" 218 SF--30)
Yaroslav Korolev (6'10" 245 PF--26)
Viktor Khryapa (6'9" 235 PF--31)
Timofey Mozgov (7'1" 250 C--27)
Sasha Kaun (6'11" 256 C--28)
Artem Klimenko (7'1" 228 C--20)
Russia is a team that is ran by a bunch of length--Kirilenko, an NBA mainstay, is the clear leader in this, but NBA busts like Yaroslava Korolev, Viktor Khryapa and Sergei Monia all have ample length and defensive reputations as well. Timofey Mozgov, Kirilenko and Shved are the clear leaders of this team. The team is ran by two tall PGs in Shved and Ponkrashov, and there's enough talent to be a major sleeper here.
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8) LITHUANIA
Mantas Kalnietis (6'5" 205 PG--27)
Tomas Dimsa (6'4" 185 SG--20)
Reinaldas Seibutis (6'6" SG--28)
Martynas Pocius (6'5" SG--27)
Linas Kleiza (6'8" 234 SF--29)
Marius Grigonis (6'6" 195 SF--19)
Donatas Motiejunas (7'0" 222 PF--23)
Kristof Lavrinovic (6'11" PF--33)
Jonas Valanciunas (7'0" 240 C--21)
Darjus Lavrinovic (6'11" C--33)
Robertas Javtokas (6'11" C--33)
Martynas Andriuskevicius (7'2" 240--27)
Without Jasikevicius and Songaila, both of whom are likely too old to compete here, there's a certain lack of leadership lost, especially since their very old players have zero NBA experience. Still, they have very viable young NBA players, like Motiejunas and Valanciunas, and older leadership and NBA viability in Kleiza, so this is a decent team. Kalnietis is an underrated PG who has never made it to the NBA, and they have special incubator players coming up in Dimsa and Grigonis. They have some draft washouts like Seibutis and Andriuskevicius, as well. It's a bit lacking in point guards, but there's enough talent here.
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9) GREECE
Vassilis Spanoulis (6'4" PG--31)
Dimitirs Diamantidis* (6'5" 220 PG/SG--33)
Nick Calathes (6'6" 213 PG/SG--24)
Nikolaos Zisis (6'6" 215 SG--30)
Giannis Antetokoumpo (6'10" 205 SF--19)
Kostas Papanikalaou (6'9" SF--23)
Thanassis Antetokoumpo (6'7" 200 SF--20)
Antonis Fotsis (6'10" PF--32)
Linos Chrysikopoulos (6'10" 218 PF--21)
Giorgos Printezis (6'9" PF--28)
Kosta Koufos (7'0" 265 C--24)
Ioannis Bourousis (7'0" C--29)
Greece actually has major sleeper potential. In the past, they had major players who had NBA talent (Diamantidis, Theodoros Papaloukas, Spanoulis) who never came over stateside, and had major success. Now, Paps and Diamantidis have retired, although with the resurgence of Greek talent I might assume that Diamantidis could come back, since he's still an active player but just has supposedly retired from the national team. Spanoulis and Fotsis are the heart and soul of the team, but Calathes, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Koufos bring in the young certifiable NBA talent across all positions. They also have a slew of NBA former draft prospects like Zisis, Chriskopoulis, Papanikalaou, Printezis, and Bourousis, as well as the older Antetokounmpo. This team could make noise with clear leaders and fairly good balance, both positionally and young and old.
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10) TURKEY
Dogus Balbay (6'1" 180 PG--24)
Ender Arslan (6'3" PG--30)
Kenan Sipahi (6'4" 180 PG--18)
Sinan Guler (6'4" SG--29)
Emir Preldzic (6'9" 220 SF--26)
Serhat Citin (6'6" SF--27)
Hedo Turkoglu (6'10" 220 SF--34)
Ersan Ilyasova (6'10" 235 PF--26)
Kerem Gonlum (6'10" PF--35)
Omer Asik (7'0" 255 C--27)
Enes Kanter (6'11" 248 C--21)
Semih Erden (7'0" 240 C--27)
Turkey is a very big man loaded team, with four 6'10" and above players (Turkoglu, Ilyasova, Kanter and Asik) leading the ropes. Also, really watch out for young Turkish phenom Kenan Sipahi, who can give Turkey a new generation of ballhandler. Other than that, there's really not much to be impressed, but former Texas PG Dogs Balbay is good at pressuring the ball on defense, and Emir Preldzic was a draft prospect in prior years.
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11) GERMANY
Dennis Schroeder (6'1" 168 PG--20)
Per Gunther (6'0" PG--25)
Paul Zippser (6'6" 195 SG--19)
Lucca Staiger (6'5" SG--25)
Robin Benzing (6'10" 210 SF--24)
Elias Harris (6'8" 239 SF--24)
Dirk Nowitzki (7'0" 245 PF--35)
Tim Ohlbrecht (6'11" 255 PF/C--25)
Jan Jagla (7'0" 231 PF--32)
Chris Kaman (7'0" 265 C--31)
Tibor Pleiss (7'1" 269 C--24)
Philipp Neumann (6'11" 240 C--21)
Germany has a ton of big men, including those who can shoot, but has been awful at producing any sort of guards, but especially wings. Nowitzki is the clear leader, with Kaman, Ohlbrecht and Schroeder on the sides, the latter two adding the young blood, and a few NBA draft washouts like Benzing, Harris, and Pleiss. This is an imbalanced team that will only go as far as Nowitzki takes them.
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12) SERBIA
Milos Teodosic (6'5" PG--26)
Nemanja Nedovic (6'3" 192 PG/SG--22)
Vasilje Micic (6'5" 203 PG--20)
Milenko Tepic (6'8" SG/SF--26)
Bojan Bogdanovic (6'6" 205 SG--21)
Nemanja Bjelica (6'10" SF/PF--25)
Milan Macvan (6'9" PF--23)
Zoran Erceg (6'11" PF--28)
Nenad Krstic (7'0" 267 C--30)
Miroslav Raduljica (7'0" C--25)
Nikola Milutinov (6'11" 220 C--19)
Dejan Musli (7'0" C--22)
Serbia has a very interesting team completely laden with prior NBA prospects who for whatever reason has not found success in the NBA but found success in the Euroleague, but it also has many young next generation prospects coming up like Micic, Bogdanovic, and Milutinov. There might be a lack of wing play here but there are a ton of bigs here. Teodosic, Nedovic, and Krstic are the likely leaders here, and Raduljica has done well with the Bucks. It's hard to make noise with no current NBA players playing heavy minutes, but we'll see. Too bad they can't combine with Montenegro and add Nikola Pekovic and Vucevic.
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13) ITALY
Travis Diener (6'1" PG--31)
Daniel Hackett (6'6" PG--25)
Andrea Cinciarini (6'4" PG--27)
Marco Belinelli (6'5" 195 SG--27)
Pietro Aradori (6'4" SG--24)
Alessandro Gentile (6'6" 200 SF--22)
Danilo Gallinari (6'10" 225 SF/PF--25)
Luigi Datome (6'8" 215 SF/PF--26)
Stefano Mancinelli (6'8" PF--26)
Nicolo Melli (6'9" PF--22)
Andrea Bargnani (7'0" 250 C--28)
Marco Cusin (6'11" C--26)
Not exactly a deep team, as it's led by Gallinari, Bellinelli and Bargnani at each of the SG, SF and C positions, but there is a distinct lack of a playmaking PG and proper depth as well.
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Others:
14) Montenegro has the combination of Nikola Pekovic and Nikola Vucevic, with a few NBA draft prospects like Bojan Dubljevic and Vladimir Dasic, but otherwise lack the talent, particularly in non-center positions.
15) Croatia has several NBA prospects of interest: Dario Saric and Mario Hezonja, but otherwise their best players are NBA draft washouts like Roko Ukic and Ante Tomic.
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
2013 DRAFT PLAYER CAPSULES
Allen Crabbe
--Inclined spot-up jumpshooting SG who limits turnovers. Just a decent use of the offensive floor. Just an OK passer for position.
--Doesn't penetrate. Vastly improving mid-range game, but just appears to be decent based on body of work. On the other hand, three point shooting is heading in the opposite direction; has shown real ability to hit threes off the dribble in his first two years (39%, 41%) but has struggled with more spot-up attempts this season, but should still be a good shooter, especially corroborated with very good free throw percentages. Good shooter who likely needs to find consistency with all forms of his jumper.
--Pretty good defender, but very subpar in defensive playmaking. Good rebounder for size. OK frame. Might lack athleticism between the lack of penetration and defensive playmaking, but could find a 3's/D niche if he could simplify his college scoring role into one that mostly involves three point shooting.
Ben McLemore
--Spot-up scorer with a great use of the offensive floor. Excellent finisher at the rim off spoon feeds, but given frequency of at rims not that impressive in drawing fouls. Excellent spot-up three point shooter, and corroborated by excellent free throw shooting, even though just decent mid-range game. OK passer who limits turnovers.
--Very good defender. Good rebounder. Just a decent build. Just an OK defensive playmaker who can block shots but is really awful in racking up steals.
--Overall, can finish and shoot from deep, but lacks the self-creation, passing and ability to draw fouls to take it up another level. More of a strong than athletic type, as rebounding and attacking are more strength and drawing fouls and making defensive plays are more athletic. Somewhat reminds of Jason Richardson in overall style of game.
James Ennis
--Decent scoring small forward with an excellent use of the offensive floor and a desire for isolations far more than the typical SF (only 45.59% of his shots are assisted). Decent passer for position, but turnover prone.
--The isolation role does not agree with him, as he's a far better shooter off spot-ups (43% 2's, 37% 3's) then when he is taking them off the dribble (31% 2's, 33% 3's this season). Probably a decent shooter overall, but he does have a good foundation given good free throw shooting. Excellent finisher around the rim who is better off set ups but can also improvise a little, and draws fouls.
--Decent defender. Very good defensive playmaker who pads steals and blocks, and good rebounder for size. Overall, has swiss-knife ability with few weaknesses, as he's a decent spot-up shooter, passer, and defender, and has good athleticism with the finishing, rebounding and defensive playmaking. He currently packs more athletic traits than skill-based traits, but for an athlete he has a wide array of skills with potential for growth. Can be a really good role player type if harnessed correctly.
Jeff Withey
--Elite defender who might have been the second best defensive player in college last season. Excellent rebounder. Elite defensive playmaker with an elite rate of shotbocking. Very good frame for a NBA center. Has drastically cut down his fouls. Really underweight though.
--Middling scorer who relies majorly on set-up shots. Decent to good finisher with a major knack for drawing fouls. Appears to have a good spot-up mid-ranger (shot 40% this past season, and 55% his second year) and has utilized that shot more with each passing season. Grain of salt given that while he is an improved free throw shooter, it is still subpar overall. Touches the ball to score, not a passer.
--Should be able to rely on his defense majorly in the NBA, and what might be a good mid-range shot and some finishing.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
--Three-point inclined jumpshooting scorer who uses a mix of spot-ups and isolations. Not a passer, but really limits turnovers, not surprising given jumpshooting game.
--Infrequently takes shots around the rim. Appears to be one of those shooters who shoots better off the dribble, as opposed to spotting up. Has shown ability to hit pull-ups (45% last year) and threes off the dribble (37% this year), but percentages suffer in spot up situations. In the aggregate, mid-range game appears to be good, whereas his long range game is average, and overall, just an OK free throw shooter, so his shooting is likely just average, at best. Has some ability to draw fouls for a jumpshooter.
--Excellent defender and excellent build for position. Excellent defensive playmaker with a knack for steals, and also an excellent rebounder for his size. Defensively is where he could make his money, because offensively there's a ton of questions: he doesn't have the penetration or passing ability to be an alpha scorer, but lacks the spot-up game or really the touch to take in a true shooting role, so there isn't too much of a role for him there.
Michael Carter-Williams
--Oversized point guard with top notch defensive ability. Excellent defensive playmaker who is top notch at accruing steals but also gets a few blocks for size. Very good rebounder for size. Elite build for position, but underweight.
--On offense, lacks usage for position due to scoring limitations, but has creator mentality with isolation game (only 27.4% of shots assisted). Handles the ball with the intention to pass it as the first, second and third option, but also very turnover prone and will force passes.
--Subpar scorer in the NBA, but has a good use of the offensive floor. Subpar finisher, but has a knack for drawing fouls. Very poor pull-up game. Appears to have some potential as a spot-up three point shooter, but shot so poorly from three with many off the dribble this past season. Might be a decent long range shooter, but very poor free throw shooter for position as well as mid-range numbers raise concerns about shooting overall.
--It's really questionable whether he can score inside the three point line in the NBA and how that will affect his passing ability, and if he can find a scoring niche overall. However, he has real potential to hang on with elite defensive attributes, and if he can unlock his passing or dedicate himself to spot-up threes that could help. Syracuse has had a horrible track record with first round picks this decade, so there's always a grain of salt from their products as well.
Myck Kabongo
--Combo guard with a creator mentality with isolation and a desire to attack the rim (only 26.17% of shots assisted), but who lacks usage for the NBA due to subpar scoring limitations. Can pass like a NBA PG but incredibly turnover prone doing so, making his role probably more like a combo guard. Subpar finisher off the dribble but has an insane knack for drawing fouls.
--Shrunk the amount of jumpers he took this year, and has little range outside the paint. Has no mid-range pull-up (29%, 12%) and a very little long range game to speak of (30%, 29%) but he still takes most of those off the dribble. Slight hope given he is an OK free throw shooter for position, but that's the cap.
--Poor defender. Subpar defensive playmaker who despite 6'3" is absolutely pathetic in registering blocks. Quite a poor rebounder. Every offensive and defensive skill he possesses is a weakness--heavily reliant on foul drawing on offense but has little range and can't finish, and is a very turnover prone-passer. Defense he's highly unrefined across the board. At this point he's more athlete and less basketball player.
Ryan Kelly
--Inclined spot-up jumpshooter with a good use of the offensive floor. Passes the ball extremely well for his size, and also limits turnovers.
--Subpar scorer in the NBA with somewhat of a low usage. Good mid-range jumpshooter who is better with his feet set but can create a few shots from there (44% this season, 40% in his second year) and equally adept at spot up threes (42%, 41%), corroborated by good free throw shooting. Incredibly declining rate of at-rim shots to the point where he virtually didn't take any this past season, which might be due to his lingering injuries. However, has developed a real knack for drawing fouls even with the jumpers.
--Decent defender with very good defensive playmaking ability, particularly in shotblocking. Very poor rebounder for size. Top notch build for an NBA PF. Has a lot of intriguing qualities--a really good shooter who can pass the ball and limit turnovers with some defense, but he might lack the athleticism between the at-rim and rebounding game to take it up another notch.
Victor Oladipo
--Decent scoring small forward with a desire for isolations far more than the typical SF (only 46.54% of shots assisted). Has developed OK passing ability at the small forward position, but very turnover prone with preferred isolation game.
--Subpar use of the offensive floor. Preferred perch is at-rim scoring, where he is a good finisher mostly off improvisation--top-notch offensive rebounder for size. However, note rate of foul drawing as decreased every year even though his percentage of at-rim attempts has stayed relatively the same. Also, might possibly be living off a one year fluke of excellent shooting (45% 2's, 44% 3's), given past history (24, 25% 2's, 21%, 18% 3's) and minimum attempts (less than two-fifths of his shots were jumpers). Has improved his jumper, but just an OK free throw shooter, and very likely at best he's just an OK shooter.
--Very good defender. Very good defensive playmaker with a knack for steals. Top-notch rebounder for size. Is really like Tony Allen--a defense-first athlete with an OK shot and a preferred at-rim game, but nothing really more than that.
--Inclined spot-up jumpshooting SG who limits turnovers. Just a decent use of the offensive floor. Just an OK passer for position.
--Doesn't penetrate. Vastly improving mid-range game, but just appears to be decent based on body of work. On the other hand, three point shooting is heading in the opposite direction; has shown real ability to hit threes off the dribble in his first two years (39%, 41%) but has struggled with more spot-up attempts this season, but should still be a good shooter, especially corroborated with very good free throw percentages. Good shooter who likely needs to find consistency with all forms of his jumper.
--Pretty good defender, but very subpar in defensive playmaking. Good rebounder for size. OK frame. Might lack athleticism between the lack of penetration and defensive playmaking, but could find a 3's/D niche if he could simplify his college scoring role into one that mostly involves three point shooting.
Ben McLemore
--Spot-up scorer with a great use of the offensive floor. Excellent finisher at the rim off spoon feeds, but given frequency of at rims not that impressive in drawing fouls. Excellent spot-up three point shooter, and corroborated by excellent free throw shooting, even though just decent mid-range game. OK passer who limits turnovers.
--Very good defender. Good rebounder. Just a decent build. Just an OK defensive playmaker who can block shots but is really awful in racking up steals.
--Overall, can finish and shoot from deep, but lacks the self-creation, passing and ability to draw fouls to take it up another level. More of a strong than athletic type, as rebounding and attacking are more strength and drawing fouls and making defensive plays are more athletic. Somewhat reminds of Jason Richardson in overall style of game.
James Ennis
--Decent scoring small forward with an excellent use of the offensive floor and a desire for isolations far more than the typical SF (only 45.59% of his shots are assisted). Decent passer for position, but turnover prone.
--The isolation role does not agree with him, as he's a far better shooter off spot-ups (43% 2's, 37% 3's) then when he is taking them off the dribble (31% 2's, 33% 3's this season). Probably a decent shooter overall, but he does have a good foundation given good free throw shooting. Excellent finisher around the rim who is better off set ups but can also improvise a little, and draws fouls.
--Decent defender. Very good defensive playmaker who pads steals and blocks, and good rebounder for size. Overall, has swiss-knife ability with few weaknesses, as he's a decent spot-up shooter, passer, and defender, and has good athleticism with the finishing, rebounding and defensive playmaking. He currently packs more athletic traits than skill-based traits, but for an athlete he has a wide array of skills with potential for growth. Can be a really good role player type if harnessed correctly.
Jeff Withey
--Elite defender who might have been the second best defensive player in college last season. Excellent rebounder. Elite defensive playmaker with an elite rate of shotbocking. Very good frame for a NBA center. Has drastically cut down his fouls. Really underweight though.
--Middling scorer who relies majorly on set-up shots. Decent to good finisher with a major knack for drawing fouls. Appears to have a good spot-up mid-ranger (shot 40% this past season, and 55% his second year) and has utilized that shot more with each passing season. Grain of salt given that while he is an improved free throw shooter, it is still subpar overall. Touches the ball to score, not a passer.
--Should be able to rely on his defense majorly in the NBA, and what might be a good mid-range shot and some finishing.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
--Three-point inclined jumpshooting scorer who uses a mix of spot-ups and isolations. Not a passer, but really limits turnovers, not surprising given jumpshooting game.
--Infrequently takes shots around the rim. Appears to be one of those shooters who shoots better off the dribble, as opposed to spotting up. Has shown ability to hit pull-ups (45% last year) and threes off the dribble (37% this year), but percentages suffer in spot up situations. In the aggregate, mid-range game appears to be good, whereas his long range game is average, and overall, just an OK free throw shooter, so his shooting is likely just average, at best. Has some ability to draw fouls for a jumpshooter.
--Excellent defender and excellent build for position. Excellent defensive playmaker with a knack for steals, and also an excellent rebounder for his size. Defensively is where he could make his money, because offensively there's a ton of questions: he doesn't have the penetration or passing ability to be an alpha scorer, but lacks the spot-up game or really the touch to take in a true shooting role, so there isn't too much of a role for him there.
Michael Carter-Williams
--Oversized point guard with top notch defensive ability. Excellent defensive playmaker who is top notch at accruing steals but also gets a few blocks for size. Very good rebounder for size. Elite build for position, but underweight.
--On offense, lacks usage for position due to scoring limitations, but has creator mentality with isolation game (only 27.4% of shots assisted). Handles the ball with the intention to pass it as the first, second and third option, but also very turnover prone and will force passes.
--Subpar scorer in the NBA, but has a good use of the offensive floor. Subpar finisher, but has a knack for drawing fouls. Very poor pull-up game. Appears to have some potential as a spot-up three point shooter, but shot so poorly from three with many off the dribble this past season. Might be a decent long range shooter, but very poor free throw shooter for position as well as mid-range numbers raise concerns about shooting overall.
--It's really questionable whether he can score inside the three point line in the NBA and how that will affect his passing ability, and if he can find a scoring niche overall. However, he has real potential to hang on with elite defensive attributes, and if he can unlock his passing or dedicate himself to spot-up threes that could help. Syracuse has had a horrible track record with first round picks this decade, so there's always a grain of salt from their products as well.
Myck Kabongo
--Combo guard with a creator mentality with isolation and a desire to attack the rim (only 26.17% of shots assisted), but who lacks usage for the NBA due to subpar scoring limitations. Can pass like a NBA PG but incredibly turnover prone doing so, making his role probably more like a combo guard. Subpar finisher off the dribble but has an insane knack for drawing fouls.
--Shrunk the amount of jumpers he took this year, and has little range outside the paint. Has no mid-range pull-up (29%, 12%) and a very little long range game to speak of (30%, 29%) but he still takes most of those off the dribble. Slight hope given he is an OK free throw shooter for position, but that's the cap.
--Poor defender. Subpar defensive playmaker who despite 6'3" is absolutely pathetic in registering blocks. Quite a poor rebounder. Every offensive and defensive skill he possesses is a weakness--heavily reliant on foul drawing on offense but has little range and can't finish, and is a very turnover prone-passer. Defense he's highly unrefined across the board. At this point he's more athlete and less basketball player.
Ryan Kelly
--Inclined spot-up jumpshooter with a good use of the offensive floor. Passes the ball extremely well for his size, and also limits turnovers.
--Subpar scorer in the NBA with somewhat of a low usage. Good mid-range jumpshooter who is better with his feet set but can create a few shots from there (44% this season, 40% in his second year) and equally adept at spot up threes (42%, 41%), corroborated by good free throw shooting. Incredibly declining rate of at-rim shots to the point where he virtually didn't take any this past season, which might be due to his lingering injuries. However, has developed a real knack for drawing fouls even with the jumpers.
--Decent defender with very good defensive playmaking ability, particularly in shotblocking. Very poor rebounder for size. Top notch build for an NBA PF. Has a lot of intriguing qualities--a really good shooter who can pass the ball and limit turnovers with some defense, but he might lack the athleticism between the at-rim and rebounding game to take it up another notch.
Victor Oladipo
--Decent scoring small forward with a desire for isolations far more than the typical SF (only 46.54% of shots assisted). Has developed OK passing ability at the small forward position, but very turnover prone with preferred isolation game.
--Subpar use of the offensive floor. Preferred perch is at-rim scoring, where he is a good finisher mostly off improvisation--top-notch offensive rebounder for size. However, note rate of foul drawing as decreased every year even though his percentage of at-rim attempts has stayed relatively the same. Also, might possibly be living off a one year fluke of excellent shooting (45% 2's, 44% 3's), given past history (24, 25% 2's, 21%, 18% 3's) and minimum attempts (less than two-fifths of his shots were jumpers). Has improved his jumper, but just an OK free throw shooter, and very likely at best he's just an OK shooter.
--Very good defender. Very good defensive playmaker with a knack for steals. Top-notch rebounder for size. Is really like Tony Allen--a defense-first athlete with an OK shot and a preferred at-rim game, but nothing really more than that.
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Friday, September 6, 2013
OFFENSIVE ATHLETICISM: AT-RIM ACTIVITY, FOUL DRAWING AND DUNKING, BY POSITION
Title is self explanatory. See below...
Friday, July 26, 2013
NBA POWER RANKINGS
Now most of the moves have been made, time to analyze who's first and who's worst.
Starting lineup is PG-SG-SF-PF-C
Bench (left to right) is in order of quality
Starting lineup is PG-SG-SF-PF-C
Bench (left to right) is in order of quality
Saturday, July 6, 2013
WHAT ARE THE LAKERS' OPTIONS IN FREE AGENCY POST DWIGHT HOWARD?
Well, we've officially lost Earl Clark, Chris Duhon and Dwight Howard, and Mike D'Antoni has already alienated Devin Ebanks and Antawn Jamison (another reason to hate D'Antoni, he forcefully takes away minutes without a capable explanation) and those have pretty much said adios to the Lakers. Andrew Goudelock is someone who's not expected to be back, not to mention he's incredibly one-dimensional and has limitations almost everywhere else besides scoring/shooting. Kevin Ding already reported that in the event that Dwight leaves, look for the Lakers to amnesty World Peace, and I don't think that's going to change--we're stuck in the worst scenario, no man's land, between the 7th and 10th spots in the West, and Peace has been regressing badly on both ends and won't help a mediocre to poor roster. So that's already seven (at least) players gone from our roster. By the way, I'm assuming the Lakers are preserving cap space and will not execute any sign and trades with the Rockets.
I'd prefer not to have Robert Sacre, because if you've read my scouting report, I don't see any NBA-level capabilities and we shouldn't waste a roster spot just to have a cheerleader to bring the mood up during losses. He's a RFA, though, and something tells me we could have him back on the cheap, but still, if I were manning this roster right now, I wouldn't take him. That's (hopefully) eight now.
I'm not a big fan of Darius Morris either, because he needs to rewire his game and recognize is limitations, but even then, his niche of threes-D isn't as strong as other players. I'm mixed on letting him return, particularly since we have Nash and Blake sopping minutes, but of course with Nash's injury history he'll be good insurance, and can come on the cheap (minimum). We have already shown signs of wanting him to return by letting him know he can play in our summer league. So I'd pencil him into next season's roster.
So we're looking at
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: None
PF: Hill, Kelly
C: Gasol
Eight familiar guys on our roster (I'm assuming Ryan Kelly will make it, he's certainly talented enough--read my scouting report). We need at least four more guys, and likely five more guys to round it out.
We'll have about $70mil of salaries next year with Metta's amnesty, so I'm assuming we're right at around tax level ($70.307mil). So we'll only have our mini mid-level exception and veteran's minimum for other free agents. Unfortunately, many of the top free agents have already chosen teams, although almost all of them were out of our price range.
I doubt we'd make any trades, although if we're completely tanking, trading Nash won't be a horrendous option, since there's no way we'll win this year and the clock is ticking on his end. However, it's only going to be one year before we might have our books completely wiped clean--only Nash is under contract for the 2014 season and beyond. So I don't think we'll trade him. Just have our top vets sustain a mediocre season--don't think we have the limited talent, or the veterans who would allow it, to tank for Wiggins. Assuming we do fall in the late lottery though, in a deep draft, who knows if a Aaron Gordon or a Dante Exum or a Marcus Smart could fall to us. So really, I'd recommend an all-out tank, especially if Kobe takes a while to recover. A great draft pick would be very nice.
We badly need to replenish our forward positions--any small forward, backup PF and a starting or backup center are priorities. Obviously to one year deals, to preserve our cap space. We've lost a huge chunk of our defense with Dwight and can sorely use some of that.
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[b]FULL MINI MID-LEVEL OPTIONS:[/b]
First of all, I'd like to use the full mid-level on Oden, and we can sell him with minutes when we move Pau to PF, but I think he's going to take more than that amount of money to get. So, I'd really, really attempt to put our priorities on Samuel Dalembert as Pau's backup, likely with the full mid-level. That's the going rate for centers nowadays, especially since Dalembert still has vestiges of the rebounding and shotblocking he was known for, and while his dunking and defense have slipped a bit, he's still able at both fronts, and has a serviceable mid-range J. He gives us size and length.
If we can't get Dalembert, fall back for mini mid-level would be to go for Dallas's Brandan Wright--while his shotblocking's ahead of his defense and way ahead of his rebounding, his offensive game is exquisite--sweet mid-range shot, dunking, provides youth--and we'll need that to replace Jamison's offense. Yeah, he doesn't help with rebounding, but he'll plug other holes. He has the youth advantage over Dalembert for sure, but Dalembert will shore up the rebounding and provide enough offense to go with it, which is why he's first on the list.
If we want small forward first, given that we have zilch at the moment, Al-Farouq Aminu is available. He's starter quality, having started for New Orleans last year, and we need a starting small forward badly. He'll likely take the full mid-level, but he's an underrated on all things defender--he's excellent at rebounding, has great reflexes, and can really defend shots well. The problem is on the other end of the floor where he lacks skill and range, and at times allows his teams to play 4-on-5. But we need to emphasize defense and youth, and Aminu provides a lot of that. I put Dalembert in front because I like to have bigs more, but Aminu isn't a bad option. (FYI: I'd avoid Alan Anderson of Toronto if anyone was wondering--he can't defend his shadow, shot 38% from the field and for a supposed shooter he only made a third of his threes)
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[b]IF WE GET DALEMBERT, MINIMUM OPTIONS:[/b]
With Gasol, Kelly, and Hill all being more on the finesse end of athletes, assuming we get Dalembert, we might need a bruiser PF, and a SF to fill the remainder. Bruiser PFs I'd like for the minimum include Ivan Johnson from Atlanta and Jason Maxiell from Detroit. Kenyon Martin is of the same mold, but he's old enough to the point where I think it's more advantageous for him to join a contender. DeJuan Blair is likely out of our minimum price range, and we wouldn't want to use the full mini mid level on him to begin with. Lamar Odom, while on the old side, I think he'd like to come back for sentimental reasons--he might be had for the minimum, I think, and his defensive versatility could be of major use to us, but I think he might want to stay with a contender as well. I like how Maxiell has been homegrown, having stayed with Detroit throughout his NBA career, and he's an underrated rebounder and shotblocker who relishes the dirty work. He's way too undersized at 6'7" for a PF, but he's still as athletic as ever (55 dunks, finishes 68% at the rim) but has no range. Still, he's kind of what we'd like for our team. Ivan Johnson's also a bruiser, will dunk some, has reflexes for steals and has a workable offensive game, and might be underrated as well here, but he's not a shotblocker.
A SF I think we can get for the minimum, and to badly fill the starting spot--I'd really like James Johnson. He's a bit of a tweener--he doesn't really have the range to be a SF, but he moves like a SF and can pass the ball as well. He's a wild horse who doesn't know his limitations offensively and forces up jumpers, and with his lackluster Sacramento season we can capitalize with the minimum here. A 1 year minimum deal as a possible starter with Kobe guiding him could be a useful experience for him, especially since he's young and athletic. Defensively, he wasn't good this past season, but with his quickness and his ability to rack up steals AND blocks I think there's a lot of untapped potential here, for sure. He's one of the more interesting candidates.
My second option would be Carlos Delfino, hopefully we can get both James Johnson AND Delfino for the minimum because they'd complement each other. With him getting waived, even though he put up 10 a game last season, it might be possible to get him for the minimum. He's an underrated ballhandler, passer, and an excellent defender, both in contesting shots, deflecting passes and rebounding. And he's a preferred long range shooter who can really stroke it. He fills in the blanks extremely well for our team, with few weaknesses. It's hard to believe the Rockets waived him, but if they took Dwight from us, I think Delfino would be a great get for us.
Third option is Ronnie Brewer. Can we resuscitate his career? He's only 28, but he's badly faltering ever since his Utah days. He's been a pretty overrated defender in Utah--more good than great, more off-ball than on-ball--but he has good quickness, has been a great dunker and doesn't need the ball in his hands to succeed. Very mistake free player--doesn't turn the ball over, doesn't foul. Has completely lost confidence in scoring and range, both from the foul line and from the perimeter over the past few seasons, which has really hampered his career. But still, he's kind of a cheaper Al-Farouq Aminu clone, without the rebounding and with worse defense, but still. We could also try our hand in Terrence Williams--perhaps too flaky and immature, but in his rookie year he was a triple double threat with some really good passing ability. Very athletic too and has defensive potential. Poor shooter, but there's potential to work with here. Mickael Pietrus is another option here, an overzealous defender and a highly preferred but overrated three point shooter who's acquitted himself in the GS's run and gun well, so he'd be familiar with D'Antoni's schemes. He's older than Brewer though and more of a journeyman which is why he's further down this list though. I was a big fan of Derrick Brown in his Charlotte stint two years ago when he got minutes, sick dunk machine and very capable defender, but not much else. Still, athletic markers and youth are what we absolutely need. If anyone's wondering, not a fan of Hakim Warrick's lack of defense and rebounding, and he's nearing 30 and has an athletic-based game, so I'd avoid.
[b]IF WE GET AMINU, MINIMUM OPTIONS:[/b]
If we get Al-Farouq Aminu, to fill our center spot I'd like Zaza Pachulia. Something tells me he's worth more than the minimum though, but he's rugged, gets a ton of offensive boards and tries very hard on defense, albeit it's foul prone. But he has size, and I like how he's spent the past 8 years on one team (shows that Atlanta was willing to invest in him). But again, given he's worth more than the minimum (likely), that's why I don't want to put the eggs on the Aminu basket. Marreesse Speights might also want more than the minimum, and his game is hate-able because he loves stuffing his offensive numbers and doesn't do much else on defense and passing, but we'll need offense to replace Jamison, and he could be an able backup PF. Other options include Cole Aldrich, raw but could block shots in college, and was a lottery pick, and Hamed Haddadi is another underrated big man--he's raw and uncoordinated, but super tall, a rebounding machine and a space eater with some surprising touch around the rim. If we need big men shooters, for whatever reason, Josh Harrellson (threes/rebounds) and Donte Greene (attempted "threes/defense-mobility) are always available for the minimum. Birdman seems unlikely, of course.
[b]IF WE GET WRIGHT, MINIMUM OPTIONS:[/b]
Combinations of the other two: for small forward, again ideally it's the Carlos Delfino-James Johnson tandem we get, but there's also Ronnie Brewer, Terrence Williams, Mickael Pietrus, and Derrick Brown as fall backs. At center, Zaza Pachulia, but if not, Cole Aldrich or Hamed Haddadi could prove useful.
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So we need five more guys.
Just to recap:
Mini mid level: Ideally 1) Samuel Dalembert, 2) Brandan Wright, 3) Al-Farouq Aminu (in that order)
[b]Options[/b]:
SFs (get 2 if Dalembert or Wright, 1 if Aminu): Carlos Delfino, James Johnson, Ronnie Brewer, Terrence Williams, Mickael Pietrus, Derrick Brown
PFs (get 1 if Dalembert or Aminu): Jason Maxiell, Ivan Johnson, Marreese Speights, Donte Greene, Josh Harrellson (the last three options, only if we get Aminu)
Cs (get 1 if Wright or Aminu): Zaza Pachulia, Cole Aldrich, Hamed Haddadi
This gets us four for our 12-man roster, and we could have someone perhaps off summer league to fill in the remainder, or maybe someone off the options list above.
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[b]THE DALEMBERT DEAL: [/b]
Just to recap, the Dalembert deal is the most ideal to me. So with Dalembert, the ideal combination would be to sign Carlos Delfino, James Johnson and Jason Maxiell as well all to veteran minimum contracts, with another summer league player.
[u]Lineup configuration[/u]:
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: Delfino, James Johnson
PF: Hill, Maxiell, Kelly
C: Gasol, Dalembert
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[b]THE WRIGHT DEAL: [/b]
So with Wright, the ideal combination would be to sign Carlos Delfino, James Johnson and Zaza Pachulia all to veteran minimum contracts, with another summer league player.
[u]Lineup configuration[/u]:
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: Delfino, James Johnson
PF: Hill, Brandan Wright, Kelly
C: Gasol, Pachulia
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[b]THE AMINU DEAL: [/b]
So with Aminu, the ideal combination would be to sign Carlos Delfino, Jason Maxiell and Zaza Pachulia all to veteran minimum contracts, with another summer league player.
[u]Lineup configuration[/u]:
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: Delfino, Al Farouq-Aminu
PF: Hill, Maxiell, Kelly
C: Gasol, Pachulia
So that's where we stand. There's still a lot of bargain bin free agents out there.
I'd prefer not to have Robert Sacre, because if you've read my scouting report, I don't see any NBA-level capabilities and we shouldn't waste a roster spot just to have a cheerleader to bring the mood up during losses. He's a RFA, though, and something tells me we could have him back on the cheap, but still, if I were manning this roster right now, I wouldn't take him. That's (hopefully) eight now.
I'm not a big fan of Darius Morris either, because he needs to rewire his game and recognize is limitations, but even then, his niche of threes-D isn't as strong as other players. I'm mixed on letting him return, particularly since we have Nash and Blake sopping minutes, but of course with Nash's injury history he'll be good insurance, and can come on the cheap (minimum). We have already shown signs of wanting him to return by letting him know he can play in our summer league. So I'd pencil him into next season's roster.
So we're looking at
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: None
PF: Hill, Kelly
C: Gasol
Eight familiar guys on our roster (I'm assuming Ryan Kelly will make it, he's certainly talented enough--read my scouting report). We need at least four more guys, and likely five more guys to round it out.
We'll have about $70mil of salaries next year with Metta's amnesty, so I'm assuming we're right at around tax level ($70.307mil). So we'll only have our mini mid-level exception and veteran's minimum for other free agents. Unfortunately, many of the top free agents have already chosen teams, although almost all of them were out of our price range.
I doubt we'd make any trades, although if we're completely tanking, trading Nash won't be a horrendous option, since there's no way we'll win this year and the clock is ticking on his end. However, it's only going to be one year before we might have our books completely wiped clean--only Nash is under contract for the 2014 season and beyond. So I don't think we'll trade him. Just have our top vets sustain a mediocre season--don't think we have the limited talent, or the veterans who would allow it, to tank for Wiggins. Assuming we do fall in the late lottery though, in a deep draft, who knows if a Aaron Gordon or a Dante Exum or a Marcus Smart could fall to us. So really, I'd recommend an all-out tank, especially if Kobe takes a while to recover. A great draft pick would be very nice.
We badly need to replenish our forward positions--any small forward, backup PF and a starting or backup center are priorities. Obviously to one year deals, to preserve our cap space. We've lost a huge chunk of our defense with Dwight and can sorely use some of that.
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[b]FULL MINI MID-LEVEL OPTIONS:[/b]
First of all, I'd like to use the full mid-level on Oden, and we can sell him with minutes when we move Pau to PF, but I think he's going to take more than that amount of money to get. So, I'd really, really attempt to put our priorities on Samuel Dalembert as Pau's backup, likely with the full mid-level. That's the going rate for centers nowadays, especially since Dalembert still has vestiges of the rebounding and shotblocking he was known for, and while his dunking and defense have slipped a bit, he's still able at both fronts, and has a serviceable mid-range J. He gives us size and length.
If we can't get Dalembert, fall back for mini mid-level would be to go for Dallas's Brandan Wright--while his shotblocking's ahead of his defense and way ahead of his rebounding, his offensive game is exquisite--sweet mid-range shot, dunking, provides youth--and we'll need that to replace Jamison's offense. Yeah, he doesn't help with rebounding, but he'll plug other holes. He has the youth advantage over Dalembert for sure, but Dalembert will shore up the rebounding and provide enough offense to go with it, which is why he's first on the list.
If we want small forward first, given that we have zilch at the moment, Al-Farouq Aminu is available. He's starter quality, having started for New Orleans last year, and we need a starting small forward badly. He'll likely take the full mid-level, but he's an underrated on all things defender--he's excellent at rebounding, has great reflexes, and can really defend shots well. The problem is on the other end of the floor where he lacks skill and range, and at times allows his teams to play 4-on-5. But we need to emphasize defense and youth, and Aminu provides a lot of that. I put Dalembert in front because I like to have bigs more, but Aminu isn't a bad option. (FYI: I'd avoid Alan Anderson of Toronto if anyone was wondering--he can't defend his shadow, shot 38% from the field and for a supposed shooter he only made a third of his threes)
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[b]IF WE GET DALEMBERT, MINIMUM OPTIONS:[/b]
With Gasol, Kelly, and Hill all being more on the finesse end of athletes, assuming we get Dalembert, we might need a bruiser PF, and a SF to fill the remainder. Bruiser PFs I'd like for the minimum include Ivan Johnson from Atlanta and Jason Maxiell from Detroit. Kenyon Martin is of the same mold, but he's old enough to the point where I think it's more advantageous for him to join a contender. DeJuan Blair is likely out of our minimum price range, and we wouldn't want to use the full mini mid level on him to begin with. Lamar Odom, while on the old side, I think he'd like to come back for sentimental reasons--he might be had for the minimum, I think, and his defensive versatility could be of major use to us, but I think he might want to stay with a contender as well. I like how Maxiell has been homegrown, having stayed with Detroit throughout his NBA career, and he's an underrated rebounder and shotblocker who relishes the dirty work. He's way too undersized at 6'7" for a PF, but he's still as athletic as ever (55 dunks, finishes 68% at the rim) but has no range. Still, he's kind of what we'd like for our team. Ivan Johnson's also a bruiser, will dunk some, has reflexes for steals and has a workable offensive game, and might be underrated as well here, but he's not a shotblocker.
A SF I think we can get for the minimum, and to badly fill the starting spot--I'd really like James Johnson. He's a bit of a tweener--he doesn't really have the range to be a SF, but he moves like a SF and can pass the ball as well. He's a wild horse who doesn't know his limitations offensively and forces up jumpers, and with his lackluster Sacramento season we can capitalize with the minimum here. A 1 year minimum deal as a possible starter with Kobe guiding him could be a useful experience for him, especially since he's young and athletic. Defensively, he wasn't good this past season, but with his quickness and his ability to rack up steals AND blocks I think there's a lot of untapped potential here, for sure. He's one of the more interesting candidates.
My second option would be Carlos Delfino, hopefully we can get both James Johnson AND Delfino for the minimum because they'd complement each other. With him getting waived, even though he put up 10 a game last season, it might be possible to get him for the minimum. He's an underrated ballhandler, passer, and an excellent defender, both in contesting shots, deflecting passes and rebounding. And he's a preferred long range shooter who can really stroke it. He fills in the blanks extremely well for our team, with few weaknesses. It's hard to believe the Rockets waived him, but if they took Dwight from us, I think Delfino would be a great get for us.
Third option is Ronnie Brewer. Can we resuscitate his career? He's only 28, but he's badly faltering ever since his Utah days. He's been a pretty overrated defender in Utah--more good than great, more off-ball than on-ball--but he has good quickness, has been a great dunker and doesn't need the ball in his hands to succeed. Very mistake free player--doesn't turn the ball over, doesn't foul. Has completely lost confidence in scoring and range, both from the foul line and from the perimeter over the past few seasons, which has really hampered his career. But still, he's kind of a cheaper Al-Farouq Aminu clone, without the rebounding and with worse defense, but still. We could also try our hand in Terrence Williams--perhaps too flaky and immature, but in his rookie year he was a triple double threat with some really good passing ability. Very athletic too and has defensive potential. Poor shooter, but there's potential to work with here. Mickael Pietrus is another option here, an overzealous defender and a highly preferred but overrated three point shooter who's acquitted himself in the GS's run and gun well, so he'd be familiar with D'Antoni's schemes. He's older than Brewer though and more of a journeyman which is why he's further down this list though. I was a big fan of Derrick Brown in his Charlotte stint two years ago when he got minutes, sick dunk machine and very capable defender, but not much else. Still, athletic markers and youth are what we absolutely need. If anyone's wondering, not a fan of Hakim Warrick's lack of defense and rebounding, and he's nearing 30 and has an athletic-based game, so I'd avoid.
[b]IF WE GET AMINU, MINIMUM OPTIONS:[/b]
If we get Al-Farouq Aminu, to fill our center spot I'd like Zaza Pachulia. Something tells me he's worth more than the minimum though, but he's rugged, gets a ton of offensive boards and tries very hard on defense, albeit it's foul prone. But he has size, and I like how he's spent the past 8 years on one team (shows that Atlanta was willing to invest in him). But again, given he's worth more than the minimum (likely), that's why I don't want to put the eggs on the Aminu basket. Marreesse Speights might also want more than the minimum, and his game is hate-able because he loves stuffing his offensive numbers and doesn't do much else on defense and passing, but we'll need offense to replace Jamison, and he could be an able backup PF. Other options include Cole Aldrich, raw but could block shots in college, and was a lottery pick, and Hamed Haddadi is another underrated big man--he's raw and uncoordinated, but super tall, a rebounding machine and a space eater with some surprising touch around the rim. If we need big men shooters, for whatever reason, Josh Harrellson (threes/rebounds) and Donte Greene (attempted "threes/defense-mobility) are always available for the minimum. Birdman seems unlikely, of course.
[b]IF WE GET WRIGHT, MINIMUM OPTIONS:[/b]
Combinations of the other two: for small forward, again ideally it's the Carlos Delfino-James Johnson tandem we get, but there's also Ronnie Brewer, Terrence Williams, Mickael Pietrus, and Derrick Brown as fall backs. At center, Zaza Pachulia, but if not, Cole Aldrich or Hamed Haddadi could prove useful.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So we need five more guys.
Just to recap:
Mini mid level: Ideally 1) Samuel Dalembert, 2) Brandan Wright, 3) Al-Farouq Aminu (in that order)
[b]Options[/b]:
SFs (get 2 if Dalembert or Wright, 1 if Aminu): Carlos Delfino, James Johnson, Ronnie Brewer, Terrence Williams, Mickael Pietrus, Derrick Brown
PFs (get 1 if Dalembert or Aminu): Jason Maxiell, Ivan Johnson, Marreese Speights, Donte Greene, Josh Harrellson (the last three options, only if we get Aminu)
Cs (get 1 if Wright or Aminu): Zaza Pachulia, Cole Aldrich, Hamed Haddadi
This gets us four for our 12-man roster, and we could have someone perhaps off summer league to fill in the remainder, or maybe someone off the options list above.
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[b]THE DALEMBERT DEAL: [/b]
Just to recap, the Dalembert deal is the most ideal to me. So with Dalembert, the ideal combination would be to sign Carlos Delfino, James Johnson and Jason Maxiell as well all to veteran minimum contracts, with another summer league player.
[u]Lineup configuration[/u]:
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: Delfino, James Johnson
PF: Hill, Maxiell, Kelly
C: Gasol, Dalembert
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[b]THE WRIGHT DEAL: [/b]
So with Wright, the ideal combination would be to sign Carlos Delfino, James Johnson and Zaza Pachulia all to veteran minimum contracts, with another summer league player.
[u]Lineup configuration[/u]:
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: Delfino, James Johnson
PF: Hill, Brandan Wright, Kelly
C: Gasol, Pachulia
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[b]THE AMINU DEAL: [/b]
So with Aminu, the ideal combination would be to sign Carlos Delfino, Jason Maxiell and Zaza Pachulia all to veteran minimum contracts, with another summer league player.
[u]Lineup configuration[/u]:
PG: Nash, Blake, Morris
SG: Bryant, Meeks
SF: Delfino, Al Farouq-Aminu
PF: Hill, Maxiell, Kelly
C: Gasol, Pachulia
So that's where we stand. There's still a lot of bargain bin free agents out there.
Saturday, June 29, 2013
DRAFT DAY GRADES
*Based on my mock draft ranker.
ATLANTA HAWKS
Round 1: Lucas Nogueira (16), Dennis Schroeder (17)
Round 2: Mike Muscala (44), Raul Neto (47)
Noguiera ranked 21st in my algorithm so he's a solid buy with that pick. Schroeder, however, was considered undrafted in my algorithm (78th). It's harder to tell with players who don't play high level German competition, but his statistics this past season with the Phantoms didn't show many NBA-translatable skills at all. At 44th Mike Muscala was a massive steal, he ranked 23rd in my algorithm. Raul Neto doesn't make NBA viable at all (89th). So overall, a good pick (Noguiera), a bad pick (Schroeder) and a steal (Muscala).
BOSTON CELTICS
Round 1: Kelly Olynyk (13)
Round 2: Colton Iverson (53)
Olynyk screams mediocrity and ranked 28th in my algorithm, and was a massive reach at 13. Colton Iverson ranked 82nd in my algorithm. This was a horrid draft for Boston.
BROOKLYN NETS
Round 1: Mason Plumlee (22)
Round 2: None
Plumlee gave the illusion that he dropped to 22nd, but face it, there's a good reason he dropped: he's not that good at all. He ranked 45th in my algorithm, one of the worst ranks of supposed lottery picks, so even at #22 he might be a reach. He's not even the best Duke prospect for the NBA. Bad draft for Brooklyn.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Round 1: Cody Zeller (4)
Round 2: None
Zeller was a good pick, also ranking 4th in my algorithm, but when a team drafts in the lottery, especially this high, you have to look at what prospects were missed. Nerlens Noel was the biggest miss, obviously, but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was also underrated as well. So this was merely an OK pick as a result.
CHICAGO BULLS
Round 1: Tony Snell (20)
Round 2: Erik Murphy (49)
This was an awful draft for Chicago. Snell ranked 46th and was clearly a major reach at #20, and Erik Murphy ranked 75th and was drafted at 49th.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Round 1: Anthony Bennett (1), Sergey Karasev (19)
Round 2: Carrick Felix (33)
Ah, the draft everyone is talking about. My beef with Bennett is that I'm not even sure if he has the skills of a power forward--his passing/ballhandling was on par with centers with UNLV--and that really made him take a nosedive into the 25th best prospect. While I like Karasev in general, I also thought he was a reach and was the 35th best player, due to what I think are some severe athletic limitations. Felix was a complete overdraft at 33rd when he was the 88th best prospect--even to most draftniks, he wasn't projected to be drafted. This was a bad draft for the Cavs.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Round 1: Shane Larkin (18)
Round 2: Ricky Ledo (43)
Larkin was an overdraft at #18--he ranked 36th in my algorithm, and I can't see him as a starter in this league. Ledo is this year's mystery meat--no real stats to work off of, but good frame, and supposedly good scoring/ballhandling combination in the vein of JR Smith. I think he could be a steal, but Larkin was a bad pick.
DENVER NUGGETS
Round 1: None
Round 2: Erick Green (46), Joffrey Lauvergne (55)
Green was the 49th best pick in my algorithm, so the Nuggets got level value with him. Lauvergne won't see the light of the day in the league as the 99th best player in my algorithm, but for a late 2nd rounder, that won't matter. OK draft day by the Nuggets.
DETROIT PISTONS
Round 1: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8)
Round 2: Tony Mitchell (37), Peyton Siva (56)
The Pistons got a massive steal with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who ranked 2nd in my algorithm. Mitchell was framed as a steal by draftniks as he was considered a late 1st round pick for the longest time, and my algorithm, which typically loves athletic jumping jacks who pump the sort of athletic stats that Mitchell does, just couldn't overlook the combination of his massive regression combined with his lack of ballhandling/shooting giving him massive tweener status, and had him ranked 69th. Peyton Siva was ranked 74th but it doesn't matter that late in the draft.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Round 1: Nemanja Nedovic (30)
Round 2: None
I know to a lot of scouts, Nedovic looks like the second coming of Goran Dragic, with slippery shifty good athleticism and good size. But Nedovic has been around the block and has accrued a lot of unimpressive high level European stats, and is a shooting guard by nature. Nedovic was ranked 86th in my algorithm and was drafted 30th in a massive reach. Bad draft by Golden State.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Round 1: None
Round 2: Isaiah Canaan (34)
Canaan was a bit of a reach who ranked 51st in my algorithm, and could be overrated. Poor draft.
INDIANA PACERS
Round 1: Solomon Hill (23)
Round 2: None
Indiana had an incredibly poor draft, and was one of the few teams to draft a undrafted player in my algorithm in the first round. That was Solomon Hill, ranked 65th in my algorithm and widely perceived to be overdrafted by every draftnik, so this was an awful draft. This follows another obvious overdraft of Miles Plumlee, so if not for the second round steal of Orlando Johnson last year Larry Bird would really have been perceived as a bad drafter, even despite having had drafts/draft day trades of Paul George, Lance Stephenson, Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert. But awful draft this go around.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Round 1: Reggie Bullock (25)
Round 2: None
Bullock was probably within the range of my algorithm for being drafted (33rd), but typically within that algorithm range you're probably expecting a role player. That's what the Clippers are getting here. OK drafting here.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Round 1: None
Round 2: Ryan Kelly (48)
Finally! The Lakers were one of the very few teams to get a massive draft day steal, and Kelly was one at 9th in my algorithm. This was an incredible value pick. Excellent drafting.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Round 1: None
Round 2: Jamaal Franklin (41), Janis Timma (60)
Franklin was perceived as the steal of the draft, having been perceived as a 20s pick, but I was never high on him in the first place, mostly because, between his lack of a jumper and lack of handles/passing, I saw him as a 6'5" PF. Still, everything else seems very good with him, but in the aggregate he ranked 47th--within range of this being a solid pick based on value. Janis Timma was not in my algorithm and at 60th, no one cares. Ok draft for Memphis.
MIAMI HEAT
Round 1: None
Round 2: James Ennis (50)
Ennis is one of the other major steals of the draft, ranking has a late lottery pick (14th) in my algorithm. The Heat got a massive steal by trading for him, and the rich get richer. He can be another early Dorell Wright clone for them, before he wasted his athleticism by threes-binging.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Round 1: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)
Round 2: Nate Wolters (38)
Adetokoubo was drafted right where he should be (had him 16th in my algorithm) and Wolters was another major steal, as he ranked 12th in my algorithm and might even have some starter potential in the league, I bet. Excellent draft by Milwaukee.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Round 1: Shabazz Muhammad (14), Gorgui Dieng (21),
Round 2: Lorenzo Brown (52), Bojan Dubljevic (59)
That was an awful draft in general by Minnesota. Shabazz is the worst lottery-perceived talent in my algorithm, even ranking as undrafted (77th) there largely because his passing/ballhandling are in line with PFs. He's so eerily reminiscent to a Nick Young/DeMar DeRozan clone, in a bad way, and they picked him in 14th. He fell because his game just doesn't jibe well for the league. Gorgui Dieng has so many issues--Louisville is awful at producing first round talent, he's super old and can't score at all--and ranked 38th in my algorithm. This was another clear overdraft. Lorenzo Brown (50th) got drafted right where he should have been, as was Bojan Dubljevic (54th), but no one will expect much out of those at all. Awful draft.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Round 1: None
Round 2: Pierre Jackson (42)
The move everyone is clamoring about is how they traded Nerlens Noel and another high lottery pick for the rights to Jrue Holiday. Personally I think Holiday is incredibly underrated, particularly on defense, and that's a valuable trait to have from a player so young and a top option. On offense, while he still insists on too many mid-range shots and appears turnover prone, there's still very good value here. The problem is when you get to the financial implications of this, as top five draft picks under the rookie scale contract for five years can easily produce more bang for the buck than someone like Holiday could under a larger, fatter contract. So while I like Holiday, this could be a bit of a wash. Pierre Jackson ranked 37th in my algorithm, and with the slew of Isaiah Thomas, Nate Robinsons in the league, might have slight value. OK draft for the Pelicans.
NEW YORK KNICKS
Round 1: Tim Hardaway Jr. (24)
Round 2: None
Hardaway Jr. is overrated as a first round draft pick, and scouts have already criticized his inability to put together a consistent offensive repertoire, as he'd oscillate between shooting well and poorly in spot-ups and off-the-dribble shots. He ranked 42nd in my algorithm so this was a reach. Poor draft.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Round 1: Steven Adams (12), Andre Roberson (26)
Round 2: Alex Abrines (32), Grant Jerrett (40)
Mixed draft here. Adams was a reach (25th), as was Andre Roberson (41st)--Roberson in particular has drawn a ton of comparisons to a Matt Barnes type, but he lacks the passing ability, and many had projected him to be undrafted, even. Alex Abrines rated as a late second rounder (56th), so that's three reaches right there. The real steal of these picks might be Grant Jerrett at #40--he ranked 7th in my algorithm, and I think there's massive potential out of him, as perhaps a better Channing Frye type. So this was a reasonable draft overall for the Thunder.
ORLANDO MAGIC
Round 1: Victor Oladipo (2)
Round 2: Romero Osby (51)
Oladipo was a reach at 2nd, as he ranked 18th in my algorithm, largely because he spent three years in college already. Osby wasn't even in my 100 prospects, so I don't expect much from him. Bad draft by Orlando.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Round 1: Nerlens Noel (6), Michael Carter-Williams (11)
Round 2: Arsalan Kazemi (54)
Philadelphia had the best draft of any team. Every single one of their picks was a value pick. Nerlens was the best value pick--#1 in my algorithm. While he doesn't compare to Anthony Davis or Kyrie Irving, he's still very good, and Kentucky has a good track record of producing NBA prospects. Michael Carter-Williams ranked 8th in my algorithm and was drafted 11th, but of course there's that Syracuse fudge factor, which is one of the worst among schools churning many 1st round draft prospects. But still, this could be a value pick here. Kazemi
ATLANTA HAWKS
Round 1: Lucas Nogueira (16), Dennis Schroeder (17)
Round 2: Mike Muscala (44), Raul Neto (47)
Noguiera ranked 21st in my algorithm so he's a solid buy with that pick. Schroeder, however, was considered undrafted in my algorithm (78th). It's harder to tell with players who don't play high level German competition, but his statistics this past season with the Phantoms didn't show many NBA-translatable skills at all. At 44th Mike Muscala was a massive steal, he ranked 23rd in my algorithm. Raul Neto doesn't make NBA viable at all (89th). So overall, a good pick (Noguiera), a bad pick (Schroeder) and a steal (Muscala).
BOSTON CELTICS
Round 1: Kelly Olynyk (13)
Round 2: Colton Iverson (53)
Olynyk screams mediocrity and ranked 28th in my algorithm, and was a massive reach at 13. Colton Iverson ranked 82nd in my algorithm. This was a horrid draft for Boston.
BROOKLYN NETS
Round 1: Mason Plumlee (22)
Round 2: None
Plumlee gave the illusion that he dropped to 22nd, but face it, there's a good reason he dropped: he's not that good at all. He ranked 45th in my algorithm, one of the worst ranks of supposed lottery picks, so even at #22 he might be a reach. He's not even the best Duke prospect for the NBA. Bad draft for Brooklyn.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Round 1: Cody Zeller (4)
Round 2: None
Zeller was a good pick, also ranking 4th in my algorithm, but when a team drafts in the lottery, especially this high, you have to look at what prospects were missed. Nerlens Noel was the biggest miss, obviously, but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was also underrated as well. So this was merely an OK pick as a result.
CHICAGO BULLS
Round 1: Tony Snell (20)
Round 2: Erik Murphy (49)
This was an awful draft for Chicago. Snell ranked 46th and was clearly a major reach at #20, and Erik Murphy ranked 75th and was drafted at 49th.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Round 1: Anthony Bennett (1), Sergey Karasev (19)
Round 2: Carrick Felix (33)
Ah, the draft everyone is talking about. My beef with Bennett is that I'm not even sure if he has the skills of a power forward--his passing/ballhandling was on par with centers with UNLV--and that really made him take a nosedive into the 25th best prospect. While I like Karasev in general, I also thought he was a reach and was the 35th best player, due to what I think are some severe athletic limitations. Felix was a complete overdraft at 33rd when he was the 88th best prospect--even to most draftniks, he wasn't projected to be drafted. This was a bad draft for the Cavs.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Round 1: Shane Larkin (18)
Round 2: Ricky Ledo (43)
Larkin was an overdraft at #18--he ranked 36th in my algorithm, and I can't see him as a starter in this league. Ledo is this year's mystery meat--no real stats to work off of, but good frame, and supposedly good scoring/ballhandling combination in the vein of JR Smith. I think he could be a steal, but Larkin was a bad pick.
DENVER NUGGETS
Round 1: None
Round 2: Erick Green (46), Joffrey Lauvergne (55)
Green was the 49th best pick in my algorithm, so the Nuggets got level value with him. Lauvergne won't see the light of the day in the league as the 99th best player in my algorithm, but for a late 2nd rounder, that won't matter. OK draft day by the Nuggets.
DETROIT PISTONS
Round 1: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8)
Round 2: Tony Mitchell (37), Peyton Siva (56)
The Pistons got a massive steal with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who ranked 2nd in my algorithm. Mitchell was framed as a steal by draftniks as he was considered a late 1st round pick for the longest time, and my algorithm, which typically loves athletic jumping jacks who pump the sort of athletic stats that Mitchell does, just couldn't overlook the combination of his massive regression combined with his lack of ballhandling/shooting giving him massive tweener status, and had him ranked 69th. Peyton Siva was ranked 74th but it doesn't matter that late in the draft.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Round 1: Nemanja Nedovic (30)
Round 2: None
I know to a lot of scouts, Nedovic looks like the second coming of Goran Dragic, with slippery shifty good athleticism and good size. But Nedovic has been around the block and has accrued a lot of unimpressive high level European stats, and is a shooting guard by nature. Nedovic was ranked 86th in my algorithm and was drafted 30th in a massive reach. Bad draft by Golden State.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Round 1: None
Round 2: Isaiah Canaan (34)
Canaan was a bit of a reach who ranked 51st in my algorithm, and could be overrated. Poor draft.
INDIANA PACERS
Round 1: Solomon Hill (23)
Round 2: None
Indiana had an incredibly poor draft, and was one of the few teams to draft a undrafted player in my algorithm in the first round. That was Solomon Hill, ranked 65th in my algorithm and widely perceived to be overdrafted by every draftnik, so this was an awful draft. This follows another obvious overdraft of Miles Plumlee, so if not for the second round steal of Orlando Johnson last year Larry Bird would really have been perceived as a bad drafter, even despite having had drafts/draft day trades of Paul George, Lance Stephenson, Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert. But awful draft this go around.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Round 1: Reggie Bullock (25)
Round 2: None
Bullock was probably within the range of my algorithm for being drafted (33rd), but typically within that algorithm range you're probably expecting a role player. That's what the Clippers are getting here. OK drafting here.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Round 1: None
Round 2: Ryan Kelly (48)
Finally! The Lakers were one of the very few teams to get a massive draft day steal, and Kelly was one at 9th in my algorithm. This was an incredible value pick. Excellent drafting.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Round 1: None
Round 2: Jamaal Franklin (41), Janis Timma (60)
Franklin was perceived as the steal of the draft, having been perceived as a 20s pick, but I was never high on him in the first place, mostly because, between his lack of a jumper and lack of handles/passing, I saw him as a 6'5" PF. Still, everything else seems very good with him, but in the aggregate he ranked 47th--within range of this being a solid pick based on value. Janis Timma was not in my algorithm and at 60th, no one cares. Ok draft for Memphis.
MIAMI HEAT
Round 1: None
Round 2: James Ennis (50)
Ennis is one of the other major steals of the draft, ranking has a late lottery pick (14th) in my algorithm. The Heat got a massive steal by trading for him, and the rich get richer. He can be another early Dorell Wright clone for them, before he wasted his athleticism by threes-binging.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Round 1: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)
Round 2: Nate Wolters (38)
Adetokoubo was drafted right where he should be (had him 16th in my algorithm) and Wolters was another major steal, as he ranked 12th in my algorithm and might even have some starter potential in the league, I bet. Excellent draft by Milwaukee.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Round 1: Shabazz Muhammad (14), Gorgui Dieng (21),
Round 2: Lorenzo Brown (52), Bojan Dubljevic (59)
That was an awful draft in general by Minnesota. Shabazz is the worst lottery-perceived talent in my algorithm, even ranking as undrafted (77th) there largely because his passing/ballhandling are in line with PFs. He's so eerily reminiscent to a Nick Young/DeMar DeRozan clone, in a bad way, and they picked him in 14th. He fell because his game just doesn't jibe well for the league. Gorgui Dieng has so many issues--Louisville is awful at producing first round talent, he's super old and can't score at all--and ranked 38th in my algorithm. This was another clear overdraft. Lorenzo Brown (50th) got drafted right where he should have been, as was Bojan Dubljevic (54th), but no one will expect much out of those at all. Awful draft.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Round 1: None
Round 2: Pierre Jackson (42)
The move everyone is clamoring about is how they traded Nerlens Noel and another high lottery pick for the rights to Jrue Holiday. Personally I think Holiday is incredibly underrated, particularly on defense, and that's a valuable trait to have from a player so young and a top option. On offense, while he still insists on too many mid-range shots and appears turnover prone, there's still very good value here. The problem is when you get to the financial implications of this, as top five draft picks under the rookie scale contract for five years can easily produce more bang for the buck than someone like Holiday could under a larger, fatter contract. So while I like Holiday, this could be a bit of a wash. Pierre Jackson ranked 37th in my algorithm, and with the slew of Isaiah Thomas, Nate Robinsons in the league, might have slight value. OK draft for the Pelicans.
NEW YORK KNICKS
Round 1: Tim Hardaway Jr. (24)
Round 2: None
Hardaway Jr. is overrated as a first round draft pick, and scouts have already criticized his inability to put together a consistent offensive repertoire, as he'd oscillate between shooting well and poorly in spot-ups and off-the-dribble shots. He ranked 42nd in my algorithm so this was a reach. Poor draft.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Round 1: Steven Adams (12), Andre Roberson (26)
Round 2: Alex Abrines (32), Grant Jerrett (40)
Mixed draft here. Adams was a reach (25th), as was Andre Roberson (41st)--Roberson in particular has drawn a ton of comparisons to a Matt Barnes type, but he lacks the passing ability, and many had projected him to be undrafted, even. Alex Abrines rated as a late second rounder (56th), so that's three reaches right there. The real steal of these picks might be Grant Jerrett at #40--he ranked 7th in my algorithm, and I think there's massive potential out of him, as perhaps a better Channing Frye type. So this was a reasonable draft overall for the Thunder.
ORLANDO MAGIC
Round 1: Victor Oladipo (2)
Round 2: Romero Osby (51)
Oladipo was a reach at 2nd, as he ranked 18th in my algorithm, largely because he spent three years in college already. Osby wasn't even in my 100 prospects, so I don't expect much from him. Bad draft by Orlando.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Round 1: Nerlens Noel (6), Michael Carter-Williams (11)
Round 2: Arsalan Kazemi (54)
Philadelphia had the best draft of any team. Every single one of their picks was a value pick. Nerlens was the best value pick--#1 in my algorithm. While he doesn't compare to Anthony Davis or Kyrie Irving, he's still very good, and Kentucky has a good track record of producing NBA prospects. Michael Carter-Williams ranked 8th in my algorithm and was drafted 11th, but of course there's that Syracuse fudge factor, which is one of the worst among schools churning many 1st round draft prospects. But still, this could be a value pick here. Kazemi
Sunday, June 16, 2013
TEAM DRAFT DAY RATERS
Below the jump, we'll analyze the teams that operate best at draft day--teams that know how to draft players, AND teams that know how to execute draft day trades that work to their advantage. This is based on a win-shares argument, the amount of win shares a player accumulates weighted by the number of games they play. So there's a longevity factor, a winning factor (accounted for by win shares), and the extrapolation is that the defense would come from this winning factor. And of course, win shares is built upon the PER, or primarily, offense argument. So this is a reasonable encapsulation of a player's built-in value over the course of their career. Many thanks to basketballreference for such data.
Friday, May 31, 2013
COLLEGE RATERS, AND AGE/POSITION RATERS FOR THE NBA
So this post is what I like to call "reverse engineering" the draft process. In my mock drafts, I have used what I call "forward engineering"--advanced stats with fudge factors given to athletic traits--rebounding, defensive playmaking, and other NBA translatable factors like age (smaller the better), player improvement from past season and mutual exclusion factors (threes+free throws). We'll bring that up at the end of the post to get a consolidate assessment based on this forward and reverse engineering combination.
But what is this "reverse engineering"? This time, we're going to use the past--namely, the past drafts, an use history to set the precedent for what players--using age, positional profile, and college they came from--to see if they have a non-statistical template that looks good or bad for the NBA. Because, as we all know, the statistical template isn't everything--it tends to be illuminating in identifying some sleepers, but there's also a fair share of misfires. So we need to account for this factor, and combine it with the statistics.
Another note: I won't post all the players in the "reverse engineering" process because there's a ton of them. For college players alone, I have about 330 data points to work with. Just like with the "forward engineering", I won't share the statistical formulas. So, without further ado:
Sunday, May 26, 2013
DRAFT PICK VALUE
Below, built off from the previous article (and improved from the previous article):
SUBJECTIVE NBA DRAFT BUST-O-METER
Using my special formula accounting for cumulative player win shares divided by the number of games they played (thanks basketballreference!), I've created a formula that normalizes the value of players drafted between 2000-2012.
Below the jump.
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